MP TA Update with Fundamental Catalyst! Hey Folks,
Once the market digests the news, I think this has a high probability of playing out. The pattern has looked great for some time.
Persistent Bullish divergence has been working towards a move, and a catalyst like China restricting exports of rare earth minerals of all things is simply perfect for the setup. China is MP's largest competitor.
I believe this pattern has been designed and built over the past year specifically to balance out for this news release. I think it's a big deal.
I hope this helps anyone out!
Happy Trading!
OnePath
MP trade ideas
MP Materials ($MP) ShortMP Materials Corp. owns and operates rare earth mining and processing facilities. It owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine located in the Western Hemisphere. MP Materials is one of five non-chain Western rare earth refineries in operation, construction, or recommissioning and their Mountain Pass operation in Nevada is currently restarting... However, someone is a bit bearish on MP Materials. The MP 8/18 22.5P traded 5000x today around 1.10. The daily chart shows a big flag breakdown earlier this year and has continued to downtrend as it approaches this downward trend line. Resistance at 25. A breakdown below 23.75 support could quickly send this sub 22.
MP posts an impressive track record of EPS beats.MP posted another good Quarter with a healthy growth both in EPS and Revenues.
The midcap Company has an impressive track record of EPS and Revenue beats. More important, its business might get into headlights - rare minerals miner with double digit growth and 83% Gross Profit margin, 50% Net Income Margin.
Watch for a pick up in volume, it deserves a higher valuation.
#notfinancialadvise. Adjust your size accordingly.
MP Materials Retesting BreakoutMP has been a strong stock and looks to be putting in a successful retest of prior resistance. It is finishing strong and has good volume today. I'm already long this name, but would consider this a good spot for new longs as you can set stops below today's low. My stop loss will move up to that spot.
MP Materials Strong as Expected$MP made a new ATH just recently as I was/am expecting this stock to go far, however, the wave count and the indicators show that the price acceleration has taken the stock to the overvalued zone. The price can still go up if momentum traders pick up the stock and push it more towards the sky, however for long term investors the valuation is becoming rich for what it is today and I think it is time to trim a bit to lock in some profit or start to sell covered calls
MP Materials: Bearish Re-Entry of the 1.13 ExtensionThis first entry got stopped out and now MP Materials is higher, however it is now hitting the 1.13 retrace and may be setting up to come back down within the range if this is a false move like i expect it is. I will officially call the trade off it it trades above the level of $62 and my profit taking targets will be first $30 then $10. I will be trading this in the form of puts around the current price expiring several months out from now.
MP Long Term TrendMP Materials ($MP) was awarded a $35 million contract by the Department of Defense (DoD) on Feb 22, 2022, to design and build a facility to process heavy rare earth elements (HREE) at the company’s Mountain Pass, California production site.
This project will establish the first processing and separation facility of its kind for HREEs in support of both defense and commercial applications in the United States.
This award is part of DoD’s rare earth supply chain resiliency efforts, and directly supports the administration’s initiatives to strengthen America’s supply chains as outlined in Executive Order 14017, America’s Supply Chains. To date, DoD has invested over $100M in enhancing America’s rare earth supply chain resiliency as part of its commitments to expanding domestic rare earth element processing capabilities and capacity.
General Motors signed a long-term agreement with MP Materials in Dec 2021, for the supply of rare-earth materials, alloys and finished magnets used in the electric motors that are powering its growing number of electric vehicles (EVs).
In recent earnings,
Quarterly production and revenues climbed 10% and 135% year-over-year, respectively
2021 production of 42,413 metric tons represents highest annual primary rare earth production in U.S. history
Generated $135.0 million of Net Income in 2021; Adjusted EBITDA of $219.1 million increased 414% year-over-year
MP Material one of the best SPACs$MP has been, for sure, one of the best SPACs when it comes to performance. SPACs got hammered multiple times. Barely did some of the known ones hold the $10 ground and some of them now are traded in $2-$3 range per share if now lower. I had a very high conviction on $MP from its DA announcement and I am holding it from before the merger. Today, I see more strength given the fact that they have a good moat when it comes to rare earth material. After China, they are the biggest one in the world and practically the only one in the US. Electrification is becoming more strategic and there have been rumors that China has threatened American companies on cutting off the supply of the rare earth. This is a very strong position for $MP.
Their gross margin is not like a mining or material company, but like a tech company. This year they are projected to have an 82.10% gross margin on 446M revenue. The projection of the revenue for 2021 is 319.30M (137.7% growth compared to 2020). In 2022 the revenue growth rate is estimated to be around 40%.
EV/GP (Enterprise Value/Gross Profit) for 2022 is 15.1 and EV/GP/Growth for the same year is 38.1. It shows the price of the stock is fair. Considering the growth, the price could go lower in a short term to offer a nice opportunity to buy or add. As it can be seen on the chart after the short report released on the 3rd Feb, the price recovered relatively and today it experienced nearly 8% hike so far. This shows the interest in $MP is high. If we can get a 20% discount from these levels to around 30s before the 24th Feb (2021 Q4 earning release) I believe it is a good level to start collecting or adding. This is not financial advice. DYODD
MP (1D) - Midterm correction to continue ? Hi Traders,
I had Long position in MP Materials, because I realy like their business model and really think that in long term US government should and will be supporting companies which provide Rare materials for EV/Battery/drones/... and related sectors.
Regardles, the Fundamental Analysis.... Technical Analysis cannot be ignored. You can se alredy formed 1:1: Extension with overlaping of something what could be marked as abc uptrend correction of drop.
Im alredy OUT of position with some profit. Its too risky for my RRR ... and will wait for another crash. Everything important is in the chart.
As usually, I will notify you with my EW count of subwaves. In case that marked resistance zone around 46 USD will be broken upwards. than we should wait for retracement and confirmation of that area as a support (hence there will be chance to open long position).
Trade safe and enjoy the game ;)
$MP - Could this be best investment of 2022? This might be the best play of 2022
Clean count, Fib time confluence, incredible relative strength since Oct, just broke ATH and found support at 21 EMA.
"picks and shovels" play in EV space gives exposure to growth landscape w/o the risk.
This company is the only domestic rare earth mining play giving it particular geopolitical importance over the next decade as the West competes with China for these vital resources needed for all modern technology.
Until Redwood Materials goes public, $MP might be the best investment for exposure to rare earth miners.
$MP Ready to Move Higher?I've had my eye on this one for a few weeks now. I'll be looking for some volume to break out of the downtrend line with the idea that there is overhead resistance to be taken out. Once / if it can get over that area it's clear skies ahead, IMO. See notations on chart. This one may be worthy of your watch list. Ideas, not investing / trading advice.