Ørsted - Contrarian Trade
Monthly Chart :
- Bullish divergence = Price kept making lower lows but momentum is making higher lows
- Imperfected TD Sequential 9 Buy signal (down trend not exhausted) followed by -45% Bear Sash candle which closed below IPO low = Downtrend exhaustion.
- Two Spinning Top candles = Indecision after panic
- Higher lows
- Bullish Engulfing Pattern = Classic bullish reversal pattern
Weekly Chart :
- MA 3/12 Golden Cross = Short-term momentum crossing above intermediate
Daily Chart :
- TD Sequential 3>2 = Early time to enter into new upward momentum
.............
This is what capitulation looks like:
All-time low: 96.40 DKK (tested Aug 2025)
Current: 124.20 DKK (just above IPO floor)
Sentiment: Maximum bearish (analyst consensus: "Hold" = polite for avoid)
News flow: 100% negative (Trump bans, layoffs, losses)
When everyone knows the bad news, it's in the price.
Why the market is WRONG:
Market pricing: Bankruptcy imminent
Reality: 9.9 GW of operating offshore wind generating cash flow
Market pricing: U.S. market dead forever
Reality: Courts already overturning Trump orders with legal victories mounting
Market pricing: Company worth less than 2016 IPO
Reality: Replacement cost of assets = €25-30B; Market cap = €5B
You're buying €25B+ of infrastructure for €5B.
This is a pure mean-reversion play on:
- Maximum sentiment bearishness
- Technical capitulation signals
- Absurd fundamental valuation
- Multiple near-term catalysts
Similar Historical Setups:
Ford 2008-2009 (restructuring + capitulation)
BP 2010 (crisis bottom + legal resolution)
European banks 2011-2012 (crisis pricing, mean reversion)
The Pattern: Hated stocks at generational lows with technical reversal signals often produce outsized returns.
Trade ideas
$ORSTEDOrsted has been in a persistent downtrend since its peak, without ever breaking the pattern. Technical analysis has long warned investors to stay away from the stock.
The company has now filed for a $9 billion restructuring plan, driven by its oversized offshore wind projects. The plan is backed both by the Danish state (which owns 50%) and external investors.
Shareholders of all sizes have been devastated.
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RSI showing a potential start for a bull runØrsted, is a safe bet when it comes to the long run, but it even has huge potential of a potential upcoming 50 to 80 percent of increase in the stock price till the end of the year.
The RSI is showing the same pattern as it did before the post-corona bull run it had, while having fallen a little more than the last year correction/crash.
But moving averages are still pretty neutral, though as seen on the chart; moving averages mostly showed positive signs a bit after the start of the bull run.
Orsted double divergence + 200 MA supportPretty simple stuff
Seems like a hidden bullish (continuation) divergence have played out, though it failed so far.
However, a regular divergence is also playing out atm, and could be supported by strong support on the Daily 200 SMA
Dividend registration day is today the 2nd of march, and will be paid out the 4th of march.






















