Could Solaria Be Losing Its Bullish Momentum?By Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades
Solaria Energía y Medio Ambiente (BME: SLR) has remained one of the standout stocks in the Ibex 35, driven by both its strong financial results and its technical performance on the market. The company closed the first six months of the year with a net profit of €82 million, nearly double (+97%) compared to the same period last year, partly boosted by the Stonepeak transaction in its Generia land subsidiary. Revenue reached €155 million, up 59%, while EBITDA stood at €140 million, 66% higher than in 2024. These results consolidate its visibility on medium-term catalysts and strengthen investor confidence in its growth.
Growth Strategy and Outlook
Solaria continues its share buyback program, aiming to reach up to 10% of share capital, reinforcing the board's confidence in the company’s intrinsic value. In addition, the company is diversifying its activities through solar-battery hybrid projects, the incorporation of wind energy projects, and entry into the data center business. Renewable energy demand continues to rise, and Solaria benefits from its strategic positioning in the sector. The company has secured more than 1.2 GW of connection capacity to supply data centers, with an additional 2.7 GW requested in Spain and 5.3 GW across Italy, Germany, and the UK. Solaria has reaffirmed its target of achieving an EBITDA of €245–255 million for the full year, with high visibility for the second half. This target is supported by the commissioning of new photovoltaic complexes in Spain, including Garoña (710 MW), Cataluña (200 MW), Peralveche (150 MW), and Tucana (45 MW).
Technical Analysis: Bullish Engulfing Pattern
From a technical perspective, Solaria has gone through a classic correction following the strong rally that drove its share price from €6 to €14.30 between April and August. Currently, the stock trades around €11.33, after hitting a low of €10.20, forming a bullish engulfing pattern, a potential signal of a new upward move. Key support levels are at €10.30 and €9.30, while resistances are at €12.60 and €14. A close above €13 could open the path to new highs. RSI and MACD indicators show signs of gradual recovery, with RSI at 46.94 and MACD still negative but showing potential for a bullish turn. Moving averages show a bearish crossover of the 50-day below the 100-day average, while the price is currently supported by the 200-day average. The Point of Control (POC) is around €10.20, above the annual lows of €9.06. A bullish push could test the €13 resistance, whereas a continuation of the correction would make the POC a critical level to watch for price stability. Intuitively, the stock touched a technical floor on Tuesday, with little indication of further downside.
Recovery and Stability
Solaria remains attractive in the Ibex 35 after consolidating its financial results and overcoming the correction of recent months. The stock shows signs of recovery and stability, and although it still faces significant resistance levels, recent developments suggest it could resume its bullish momentum, supported by its strong position in the renewable energy sector.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Trade ideas
Solaria and Acciona Energía: Liquidity sustains them on IBEX35The renewable energy companies Solaria (Ticker AT: SLR.ES) and Acciona Energía (Ticker AT:ANA.ES) are facing a complicated year in the stock market, with significant losses in their capitalization. Despite these falls, both are managing to remain in the Ibex 35 thanks to their outstanding liquidity, which prevents their exclusion.
The committee that defines the composition of the index will meet on December 12 and, although Solaria and Acciona do not meet the minimum capitalization criterion, the lack of candidates with sufficient trading volume and their strength in liquidity favor their permanence. Solaria, for example, has been one of the 28 most traded shares in the last six months, while Acciona Energía ranks 23rd in the liquidity ranking with a daily average of 9.2 million euros traded.
Solaria has hit lows not seen since 2020, currently being the smallest company in the index with a stock market value representing only 0.24% of the Ibex as a whole, below the 0.30% threshold. However, as in previous cases such as Meliá, its exclusion is not mandatory as long as it maintains its liquidity. Acciona Energía, meanwhile, has the lowest free float on the Ibex, as Acciona controls 88.33% of its shares. Despite this, liquidity has been its lifeline, far outperforming other less traded firms.
As for new entries, Vidrala (Ticker AT:VID.ES) could be a future candidate, although it will not be on this occasion due to a recent drop in its liquidity.
Technical Aspect
If we look at the technical aspect Solaria has been losing its maximum price since January 2021 at 31.06 Euros to the current 9.010. A -73.15% in 3 years of trading. It can be seen a quite marked Shoulder - Head - Shoulder figure. The RSI indicates high oversold at 37.57. At the moment there is a bearish crossover between the 50 and 100 averages. And the delta zone of upward pressure does not seem to be generating much effect. The control point (POC) is located around 5.150. Therefore, this fall could take place in a not very long period. On the other hand, Acciona, has been supporting its price in the 101-105 euros area and currently seems to be bouncing the price towards the last bullish area of 211 euros. Its current control point is located around 69 euros. The RSI is currently slightly oversold at $44.13, so if the company's financial situation improves, the natural evolution of the company will be to look for a test of its last resistance.
Both companies will remain under scrutiny, but their ability to adapt will be key to keep their place in the main Spanish stock market index.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Back to Pre-COVID19 Trend. Price Target 25 for the Coming YearFundamental analysis indicates a rewarding buy and the past year wouldn't have disappointed, exceeding the market average with steady growth. However, as the market approached the GameStope Squeeze, amid the buying frenzy of the beginning of the year, SOLARIA hit the ceiling, tried to revive the trend again back in the day of the squeeze, and then gave up to a bearish trend ever since, now ongoing for 3 months.
To analyze the effect and the prospects, I included her ESP35 index as an indicator of the local market ecosystem (please note that SOLARIA is not part of the index). I also included NYSE:BB to show the effect of the GameStop squeeze clearly.
First thing to notice is the pre-VOVID19 trends:
Blackberry was downwards with a relatively small angle.
ESP35 was upwards but fell heavily as a result of the first lockdown.
SOLARIA was up with a relatively small angle.
After the first lockdown, and as the market gained momentum from the sudden fall of prices, SOLARIA was the largest and most steady gainer among the 3. Looking at the 3 graphs together, you can identify October 28, 2020 as the start of the major bullish trend that culminated with the GameStop squeeze and caused SOLARIA to lose half the gains of the prior year. Now, things look as follows:
Blackberry trending downwards towards the pre-COVID19 levels, losing all the gains of the squeeze.
ESP35 is trending upwards towards its towards the pre-COVID19 levels.
SOLARIA, as the pitchfan shows, is currently leaving the COVID19 trend altogether, towards the original one of the smaller angle, as highlighted in the graph.
Perhaps, the most important piece of detail here is that the RSI is not showing an oversell, which means that SOLARIA's price may continue slipping slowly without resistence until the COVID-19 effect is cancelled and it finds support in the original, pre-COVID19 trendline.
I will pick something between the trendlines of the market and the pre-COVID19 level and go for a price target of 25 by April next year. Since the fundamentals are good, the price is at a low, and is cheap, a long-term long would make sense.