Buy Trade Aisha Steel Mills Ltd (PSX)Buy Trade Plan
Focus: Identifying a long opportunity following a structural shift in the market.
The Setup: Structural Bullish Reversal
The market has executed a Market Structure Shift (MSS), indicating that the prevailing downtrend is likely over and the institutional bias has flipped to bullish. Price is now undergoing a deep retracement back toward key demand zones (discount prices) established by this structural change.
Entry Strategy (Wait for Demand)
The trade plan focuses on initiating a long position within the zones of highest institutional demand:
Primary Buy Zone: Wait for the price to drop into the Fair Value Gap (FVG). This zone is strategically located where the prior 2024 Low Liquidity was swept, making it a high-probability area for smart money to step in and push the price higher.
Secondary Buy Zone (Deep Discount): If the FVG zone does not hold, the ultimate demand level is the large Order Block (+OB) below it. This represents the origin of the major upward move that caused the MSS and is the key level for the bullish structure to remain intact.
Risk Management (Invalidation)
Stop-Loss: The stop-loss must be placed safely below the lowest wick/point of the Order Block (+OB). A break below this level signifies an invalidation of the entire bullish Market Structure Shift and suggests the resumption of the original downtrend.
Profit Targets (Liquidity Objectives)
The goal is to capture liquidity resting at major prior resistance levels:
Initial Target: Target the first major area of resistance, labeled as the 1st Target.
Final Target: The ultimate objective is to target the 2024 High, aiming to capture the entire expected swing move and clear the liquidity resting above that peak.
Trade ideas
#Aisha Steel Mills Ltd. (ASL) – PSX Monthly ChartTechnical Analysis: Aisha Steel Mills Ltd. (ASL)
Time Frame: Monthly
Analysis Focus: Time Cycle & Seasonality
🔎 Time Scale & Cyclic Behavior
Historical analysis shows that ASL tends to complete a full bullish cycle in ~1200–1400 days (3.5–4 years).
In the past:
Cycle 1: 1187 days to peak (~Rs. 28).
Cycle 2: 1400 days to next peak (~Rs. 28).
Current Cycle: Already 1300 days in progress, aligning with previous time cycles, suggesting another potential bullish run into 2026.
This time-cycle repetition indicates predictable bullish peaks every ~4 years.
🌦 Seasonality Importance
Seasonality analysis shows strong bullish months for ASL: July, August, September, November, December, and January.
These months historically aligned with upward momentum and price rallies.
With the current bullish reversal underway, the upcoming Nov–Jan 2026 window is critical for continuation towards cycle highs.
📈 Trade Plan
Trend: Bullish
Buy: Instant (current Rs. 13.60 zone still favorable)
Stop Loss (SL): Rs. 11.62
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: Rs. 17.91
TP2: Rs. 19.31
TP3: Rs. 22.11
TP4: Rs. 28.08 (historical top and cycle resistance)
📊 RSI & Momentum
RSI = 64.94, indicating bullish momentum with further upside potential before reaching overbought.
Past bullish reversals coincided with RSI crossing 60+, which aligns with the current breakout phase.
Strong momentum supports continuation towards higher cycle targets.
🚀 Projection & Expectation
Based on time cycles (~1300 days), ASL is entering its bullish window that typically ends with a peak around Rs. 28.
Combined with seasonal strength (Nov–Jan), the probability of continuation is strong.
Traders can look for daily & 4-hour chart confirmations to add positions while maintaining tight stop losses.
⚠️ Risk Notes
Failure to hold above 11.62 would invalidate the bullish outlook.
Macro factors in steel demand and PSX sentiment may accelerate or delay the cycle’s peak.
Patience is key — cycle completion typically spans 12–18 months after reversal begins.
✅ Conclusion:
ASL is respecting its long-term time cycle (~4 years) and has entered a new bullish phase. With seasonal tailwinds in late 2025 and early 2026, the probability of a rally towards Rs. 22–28 is high. This makes ASL a strong accumulation candidate for swing and positional traders, provided risk management is followed.
Bullish Divergence on Weekly as well as Monthly TF.Bullish Divergence on Weekly as well as Monthly TF.
Started making HH HL Series on Weekly TF.
Those who are already holding ASL, should keep
a Stoploss of 6.10 (on Closing basis).
Fresh Entry can be taken around 7.40 - 8.10 with
a Stoploss of 6.10 (on Closing basis)
Initial Targets can be 9 then 10.50













