TRG Pakistan Limited - Technical Analysis ReportDate: November 04, 2025
Current Price: PKR 83.05
Change: +2.24 (+2.77%)
Volume: 9.78M
Executive Summary
TRG Pakistan Limited exhibits a highly bullish technical setup with multiple confirming patterns signaling a potential major reversal. The stock has broken out from both a falling wedge and a cup and handle formation, both accompanied by significant volume expansion. This confluence of bullish indicators suggests strong upside potential.
Pattern Analysis
1. Cup and Handle Formation (Primary Pattern)
The Cup (Mid-2024 to Late 2024)
Left Rim: ~94 PKR
Base/Bottom: 43-48 PKR (rounded bottom formation)
Right Rim: Recovered to ~74-76 PKR
Duration: Approximately 12-15 months
Shape: Well-defined U-shaped cup (optimal formation)
The Handle (Sep-Oct 2025)
Formation Zone: 66-76 PKR consolidation
Retracement: Approximately 1/3 of cup's advance (healthy)
Volume Profile: Declining during handle formation (textbook pattern)
Breakout Level: ~75 PKR
Pattern Quality: Excellent
✓ U-shaped cup (not V-shaped)
✓ Proper handle retracement (1/3 to 1/2 of advance)
✓ Volume confirmation on breakout
✓ Declining volume in handle
2. Falling Wedge Pattern (Secondary Confirmation)
Structure:
Formation Period: Q2 2024 to Q4 2024
Pattern Type: Bullish reversal
Breakout: Successfully cleared upper trendline
Volume: Strong expansion on breakout
Significance:
The falling wedge nested within the cup's right side provides additional confirmation of accumulation and bullish sentiment. The breakout from this pattern coincides with the cup and handle breakout, creating a powerful dual-signal.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance Levels
88-94 PKR - Major long-term descending trendline from 2022 highs (immediate target)
100 PKR - Psychological level and previous support/resistance
125-130 PKR - Cup and handle measured move target
Support Levels
74-76 PKR - Breakout zone and previous wedge resistance (now support)
66-68 PKR - Handle low and secondary support
60 PKR - Psychological support level
Volume Analysis
Recent Activity:
Significant volume spikes marked at key reversal points (labeled 'E' on chart)
Current volume: 9.78M - well above recent average
Volume profile confirms institutional accumulation
Interpretation:
The volume expansion during breakout phases indicates genuine buying pressure and not just technical short-covering. This is a critical confirmation factor for the bullish thesis.
Price Targets & Projections
Conservative Target (High Probability)
88-94 PKR (6-13% upside)
Testing major descending trendline
Previous resistance zone
Timeframe: 2-4 weeks
Moderate Target (Medium Probability)
100-110 PKR (20-32% upside)
Breaking through long-term resistance
Psychological milestone
Timeframe: 1-3 months
Aggressive Target (Cup & Handle Measured Move)
125-130 PKR (50-56% upside)
Cup depth: ~51 points (94 - 43)
Measured from breakout at 75
Timeframe: 3-6 months
Risk Management
Bullish Scenario Remains Valid If:
Price holds above 74 PKR (breakout level)
Volume remains elevated on up days
Closes above major trendline (88-94 range)
Pattern Invalidation/Stop Loss
Critical Support: 74 PKR
Recommended Stop Loss: 72 PKR (below breakout with buffer)
Pattern Failure: Sustained close below 68 PKR
Risk-Reward Ratio
Entry at current levels (~83 PKR)
Stop loss at 72 PKR (11 points risk)
Target at 125 PKR (42 points reward)
R:R Ratio: 1:3.8 (Excellent)
Trading Strategy Recommendations
For Aggressive Traders
Entry: Current levels (82-85 PKR)
Stop Loss: 72 PKR
Target 1: 94 PKR (partial booking)
Target 2: 110 PKR (partial booking)
Target 3: 125 PKR (exit remaining)
For Conservative Traders
Entry: Wait for pullback to 76-78 PKR OR confirmation above 88 PKR
Stop Loss: 74 PKR (if entered on pullback) / 82 PKR (if entered on breakout)
Target: 100-110 PKR
Position Sizing
Given the technical strength but considering general market volatility, recommended position sizing: 2-4% of portfolio for aggressive traders, 1-2% for conservative traders.
Conclusion
TRG Pakistan Limited presents a compelling bullish opportunity with multiple technical confirmations:
Dual Pattern Breakout: Both cup and handle and falling wedge patterns have triggered
Volume Confirmation: Strong institutional buying evident
Risk-Reward: Favorable at current levels
Momentum: Building positive momentum after extended consolidation
Overall Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5 - Strong Buy Signal)
The primary risk remains the overhead resistance from the long-term descending trendline. A confirmed break above 90-94 PKR would open the path to significantly higher levels. However, failure to hold above 74 PKR would invalidate the bullish setup and require reassessment.
Monitoring Points
Watch for daily closes above 88 PKR (trendline break)
Monitor volume on down days (should be declining)
Track broader Pakistan equity market sentiment
Observe any fundamental news/catalysts
