XAUUSD | Gold to drop 2000PIPS, where is the best sell zone?🔍 Market Context
After breaking the medium-term uptrend structure at the main Trendline , gold has formed a clear sequence of Lower High – Equal Low (EqL) , indicating a phase shift from bullish to bearish.
Currently, the price is fluctuating around the 3,960–3,970 USD zone – this is a temporary liquidity accumulation area before heading up to retest the resistance at 4,015–4,050 USD , which was previously a Demand Zone now turned into a Supply Zone .
If a strong bearish reaction occurs here, it is highly likely that the price will extend its decline towards the Order Block 3,945–3,960 USD zone, or even deeper to the Premium Zone 3,884 USD .
💎 Key Technical Structure
Main Trendline: broken, confirming a structure change (ChoCH).
Resistance Zone: 4,010–4,015 → quick reaction resistance.
Supply Zone: 4,043–4,060 → strong technical pullback zone.
Premium Zone: 3,884–3,900 → discount zone, potential temporary bottom.
📈 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ SELL Zone 1 – Scalp Reaction at Resistance Zone
Entry: 4,010 – 4,015
SL: 4,025
Take Profit : 4,005 - 3,995 - 3,975 - 3,965 - Open
➡️ Quick scalp reaction at nearby resistance – suitable for London/NY session trading.
2️⃣ SELL Zone 2 – Major Retest at Supply Zone
Entry: 4,043 – 4,060
SL: 4,065
Take Profit : 4,050 - 4,040 - 4,030 - 4,020 - 4,010/Open
➡️ Main setup – retest of supply zone confluencing with broken trendline, high probability if strong rejection on H1/H4.
3️⃣ SELL Continuation – Break & Retest below 3,945 USD
Entry: 3,945 – 3,950
SL: 3,965
TP: 3,884
➡️ Setup breaks EqL bottom confirming downtrend continuation, targeting Premium Zone.
4️⃣ BUY Setup – Reversal at Premium Zone 3,900 USD
Entry: 3,900
SL: 3,880
TP1: 3,910 - 3,920 - 3,930 - 3,940 - 3,950/Open
✅ Condition:
Only buy when a strong reaction candle appears (long-tail rejection / ChoCH bullish on M15–H1).
➡️ This is the final discount zone before major capital can return to the market – technical reversal setup, low risk / high reward.
⚠️ Risk Management
Prioritize SELL at supply zones, BUY at Premium – avoid trading mid-range.
Reduce volume in scalp setup (Sell 1).
If price closes above 4,070 → short-term downtrend is invalidated.
💬 Conclusion
Gold remains under short-term bearish pressure, however, the 3,884–3,900 USD zone could act as strong support.
The suitable strategy is to capitalize on the two resistance zones for Selling and observe technical Buying at the Premium bottom.
👉 Comprehensive Strategy:
Sell 4,010–4,015 | SL 4,025 | TP 4,005 → 3,965 🎯
Sell 4,043–4,060 | SL 4,065 | TP 4,050 → 4,010 🎯
Buy 3,900 | SL 3,880 | TP 3,910 → 3,950 🎯
🔥 “Trade with patience, react at precision zones — that’s how consistency is built.”
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Update: 28/10/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
