What will happen to gold on November 3rd?
I. Market Analysis
Trend Structure
Weekly Chart: Price is below the 5-week moving average, with the MACD showing a bearish crossover. Bearish forces dominate in the near term. However, the long-term ascending trendline support is near $3900. The long-term trend remains cautiously bullish as long as this level holds decisively.
Daily Chart: Moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with price pressured near the middle/lower band. Key resistance is at 4046. Support is focused in the 3972-3950 zone. A break below 3972 could lead to a further decline towards 3950-3900.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zone: 4010 (Weakness Boundary) → 4023-4035 (Core Short Area) → 4047-4055 (Strong Resistance).
Support Zone: 3980 (Initial Support) → 3950-3955 (Long Area) → 3915-3885 (Deep Correction Target).
II. Trading Strategy
Core Idea: Prioritize selling on rallies, with opportunistic buying near key support levels. Strict risk control is essential.
Short Strategy (Primary)
Entry Zone: Enter short positions in batches between 4030-4035. Consider adding to shorts if price reaches 4047-4055.
Stop Loss: Above 4040-4060 (Adjust flexibly between 8-10 pips based on position size).
Targets: First target 3980, Second target 3960-3950 (Hold if broken).
Long Strategy (Secondary)
Entry Condition: Consider light long positions upon stabilization in the 3950-3955 zone after a pullback.
Stop Loss: Below 3940 (8-10 pips).
Targets: First target 3980-4000, Second target 4010 (Follow up if broken).
III. Risk Control Essentials
Position Management: Single trade position ≤ 5% of capital. Avoid heavy positions.
Stop-Loss Discipline: Strictly place stops for shorts above 4060 and for longs below 3940.
Contingency Alert: Monitor the US Dollar Index, Fed policy动向, and geopolitical risks closely. Adjust strategies promptly if key levels are breached.
IV. Summary
Gold's short-term technical posture is bearish, but the long-term trend requires monitoring the effectiveness of the 3900 support.
If price rallies and faces resistance in the 4030-4055 zone next Monday, prioritize short entries.
If price pulls back and stabilizes near 3950, consider light long positions for a bounce.
If price strongly breaks above 4060 or below 3940, a reassessment of the trend will be necessary.
