Decline then #4,100.80 - #4,200.80 zoneTechnical analysis: Gold reversed on Intra-day basis (even though DX is Trading near multi-session High’s, from now on / main correlation for the fractal) as Price-action was isolated within Neutral Rectangle which has Lower High's / High's - Low's. As I've mentioned before, current slide was nothing more but sweep to cool down Overbought levels however not discontinuation of Ascending Channel on bigger charts.. Hourly 4 chart's timeframe should turn green any minute now and as long as Price-action meets strong Support near #4,000.80 psychological benchmark which is showcasing strong rejection point, I expect test-and-break of the #4,052.80 - #4,057.80 zone which can extend Buying sequence widely above #4,100.80 psychological benchmark, preserving trendline on Hourly 4 chart which is Supporting the uptrend and rejecting every downside attempt since late September / early October fractal. It is worth noting that if #4,052.80 - #4,057.80 Short-term Resistance zone rejects current recovery attempt, #3rd Top on mentioned belt which is guarding the upside will be formed as Gold will be isolated within #2 strong trendlines until one of the levels break and delivers major move on the aftermath (I lean to the Bullish side as well).
SPOTGOLD trade ideas
Gold hits record high, momentum stays strong💹 Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) has just reached a new all-time high at $4021/oz, reflecting strong safe-haven demand and optimism over upcoming Fed rate cuts.
During the Asian session, price consolidated around $4017–$4020, showing limited profit-taking pressure and strong bullish dominance.
📊 Technical Analysis
- Resistance: $4025 – $4035 (next psychological level)
- Support: $4005 – $3990 (potential short-term buying area)
- EMA50 (H1): trending firmly upward around $4008
- Volume & Momentum: steady buying inflow, no bearish divergence
- Candle Structure (H1): forming higher lows → confirming bullish control
🔎 Outlook
Gold remains in a powerful breakout phase, with momentum suggesting a potential extension toward $4030–$4050 if no strong selling pressure appears.
However, watch for a possible technical pullback near $4000–$4005 before the next move up.
💰 Trading Strategy
🔺 BUY XAU/USD: $4008 – $4012
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $4005
XAU/USD Short-Term Buy Opportunity Near $3,950 SupportCurrent price: around $3,949.60
Support zone: near $3,940
Resistance targets: around $3,962, $3,965, and $3,970
Setup type: A long position with a defined entry near current price, stop loss just below $3,940, and take profit around $3,962–$3,970.
The green box indicates the reward zone, while the red box shows the risk area.
✅ Interpretation: The trader anticipates a short-term bullish rebound after a corrective move down.
GOLD Completes Correction – Ready to Soar to 4,050 USD!OANDA:XAUUSD The price is currently testing a key support zone within a clearly defined ascending channel, indicating potential for continued upward movement. If price action confirms rejection at this level, we may see a bullish move towards 4,050 USD, aligning with the middle line of the channel. However, a break below this support level could invalidate the bullish outlook and signal a shift in momentum.
This setup reflects the potential for the current uptrend to continue. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Gold FVG Retest – Bulls Aiming for 3890
XAUUSD has reacted strongly from the support zone and is currently filling a fair value gap (FVG). As long as price holds above the defined support, bullish continuation remains favored toward the next resistance near 3890.
Key Levels:
Buy Entry: 3855
Take Profit: 3890
Stop Loss: 3835
Reasoning:
The structure shows a rebound from support and alignment with the FVG zone, indicating potential strength. Holding above 3835 suggests buyers may drive price toward the 3890 resistance, completing the swing setup.
Disclaimer:
This idea is shared strictly for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Always manage risk and follow your own trading plan.
Golden opportunity has arrivedGold has continued its strong upward momentum since breaking through the 4000 mark, reaching a high of around 4049. The market has hardly made any decent corrections, market sentiment has continued to be high, and bullish confidence has been infinitely magnified. However, the more emotional the stage is, the more we need to remain calm and rational. Structurally, gold has entered the end of an accelerated upward trend, and short-term indicators are obviously overbought. Although prices have hit new highs, momentum has not increased simultaneously, and there are signs of slight divergence, indicating that the upper space is gradually narrowing. Combined with the 4-hour structure, the 4050-4060 area is a period of strong pressure, and it may face a technical correction in the short term. In terms of operational thinking, you can consider shorting with a light position in the 4050-4060 area, and first target the 4020-4000 area. Conservative people can wait for the confirmation of the pullback before participating, and do not blindly chase the long position. Although gold is strong at present, it is not a mindless rise stage. The larger the bullish space, the deeper the adjustment will often be. At this time, risk control should be the core and planning should be the basis. Short-term short positions should only participate in structural corrections, and should not make impulsive trades that blindly fight against the trend. Steady execution, position control, and maintaining rhythm are the key to remaining invincible in extreme markets.If your recent operations are not ideal, or you are confused about how to grasp the rhythm, you are welcome to communicate with me at any time. I hope I can help you avoid detours and steadily improve your trading thinking and execution.
Still going up for goldHi traders,
Last week my outlook on gold was wrong. It turned out that gold was slowly going up some more.
Now it finished another correction down and rejected from the Daily bullish FVG so next week we could see more upside again.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bullish and trade longs again.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
GOLD 15MIN ASIAN CHART.THE SELL ORDER we opened at 3924-3922 is based on the rejection on 15 min roof and it can be broken ,if that zone is broken go long into our asain session supply roof as illustrated on the chart3956-3965 zone and a push back into our demand floor in the zone 3900 3908 will be a buy position. Except the dollar index flips it.
we have two targets for Asian and target for Newyork session..
NEWYORK WILL BE 3965-3970.
THEN ASAIAN IS ALSO VALID INTO LONDON SESSION..
#GOLD #XAUUSD #DOLLAR #US10Y
XAUUSD – Trade PlanXAUUSD – Trade Plan
Entry (Buy): Only if liquidity at 3929–3930 is taken (price sweeps below and then closes back above).
Stop Loss (SL): Below 3921 (under the liquidity low).
Take Profit (TP): 3948–3950 (previous highs).
Risk–Reward: Approx. 1:3.
Conditions:
Market structure has already shown CHoCH + BOS, indicating a bullish shift.
Entry is valid only after a confirmed liquidity grab → ensures smart money accumulation.
If liquidity is not taken, the setup remains invalid (no entry).
XAUUSD – PRICE ABOVE $4000: TRULY INSANE FOR TRADERSXAUUSD – PRICE ABOVE $4000: TRULY INSANE FOR TRADERS
Gold has officially surpassed the $4000 mark, marking one of the most robust rallies in recent history.
Let's take a look at key price zones and short-term opportunities 👇
🔻 SELL Scenario
SELL 4025–4027 → SL 4033 → TP 4015 – 4000 – 3980
SELL 4042–4044 → SL 4049 → TP 4030 – 4015 – 4000 – 3980
🟩 BUY Scenario
BUY 3993–3995 → SL 3988 → TP 4005 – 4013 – 4023 – 4040
BUY 3980–3983 → SL 3975 → TP 3998 – 4005 – 4013 – 4023 – 4040
📈 Technical Analysis
The medium-term uptrend channel continues to be maintained steadily.
Rising lows indicate that buying pressure remains very strong.
The nearest psychological resistance is around the 4043 area, coinciding with the Fibonacci extension.
The expected buying zone is at the POC Volume Profile area — a high liquidity zone, previously where many traders expected gold prices to be rejected, but now could become a strong demand area.
🧭 Macro Perspective
If the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to cut interest rates, the market could aim for the next milestone – 5000 USD/ounce.
Although short-term fluctuations may occur (such as temporary ceasefires in the Middle East or Ukraine), the core drivers of this trend remain unchanged:
US public debt is increasing
Central banks are diversifying foreign exchange reserves
The USD is weakening
All support the medium-term uptrend of gold.
⚡️Summary
Gold remains in a solid bullish structure, even as it approaches overbought territory.
There may be strong corrections, but as long as the uptrend structure is maintained, buyers remain in control.
Don't chase the rise when it's bullish, go short at 4000#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
The continued rise in gold prices is primarily due to the market's continued bullish signals, primarily driven by the US government shutdown, continued gold holdings by central banks, and tariffs and geopolitical factors.
The current gold pullback is focusing on the support level of 3950-3940. As long as this area is not broken and gold is in an upward channel, the price of gold will continue to rise. Moreover, according to the previous gold trend patterns, it can be found that every time gold continues to rise and breaks through a new high, it will touch the channel pressure and there will be a pullback of about $70-80 to accumulate energy. According to this trend pattern, combined with the rising channel of our chart, we can find that the next suppression point is at 3990-4000.
Overall, the medium- and long-term trend for gold remains bullish, but we still need to be wary of possible technical corrections in the short term. Therefore, when it retreats to the 3950-3940 range during the day, you can consider going long on gold. When it rebounds and touches the channel pressure of 3990-4000, you can try to short gold with a light position.
Oct 7, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis:
Yesterday, price broke above the 3900 resistance, reaching a high of 3970.
There’s strong support around 3927 — as long as this level holds, bullish momentum remains intact.
At today’s open, price quickly surged to 3976 before pulling back.
Watch 3976 resistance closely: a breakout could extend the uptrend, while failure to break may offer a good shorting opportunity.
Overall, bullish momentum has not faded.
The main plan remains buying pullbacks into support, and short setups should wait patiently for clear reversal signals before entry.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 4000 – Bullish target
• 3990 – Bullish target
• 3980 – Bullish target
• 3976 – Resistance
• 3970 – Support
• 3959 – Support
• 3956 – Bull–bear pivot
• 3950 – Psychological level
📈 Intraday Strategy:
SELL: If price breaks below 3956 → target 3952, with further downside toward 3950, 3946, 3941
BUY: If price holds above 3973 → target 3976, with further upside toward 3980, 3985, 3990
XAUUSD: The Calm Before the Golden RallyGold (XAU/USD) is currently maintaining a short-term bullish structure after breaking several key resistance levels. Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) on the 15-minute chart signal a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. As long as the price holds above the 3,977–3,970 support zone, the overall bias remains upward. The current formation of higher highs and higher lows suggests buyers are still in control, setting the stage for a potential continuation rally.
The first demand zone lies between 3,944 – 3,955, where the last bullish impulse originated — a critical area for potential re-entry buys if the price retraces deeply. On the upside, the 4,014 – 4,033 range marks a strong supply zone that coincides with the Fibonacci 0.618–0.786 retracement levels. Should bulls manage to clear this supply zone, price could extend toward the 4,057 (1.0 Fibonacci) level, and possibly reach the 4,128 (1.618 extension) as the next swing target.
The primary scenario anticipates a minor pullback toward 3,985 (Fib 0.382) before resuming its bullish move toward 4,024 (supply). A clean break above that zone could accelerate momentum toward 4,057–4,128. Alternatively, if price breaks below 3,977, it might retest the demand base at 3,944–3,955 before another bullish attempt.
The technical landscape points to a bullish continuation setup with well-defined risk. Gold is preparing for a possible surge, but traders should stay patient for confirmation at key retracement levels. As always — trade the plan, not emotions.
Gold's Trend Outlook After Historic Breakthrough of $4,000Gold's Trend Outlook After Historic Breakthrough of $4,000
I. Milestone Market Review
On October 8th, during the Asian and European trading sessions, spot gold prices achieved a historic breakthrough, surpassing the $4,000/ounce mark for the first time. The intraday high reached $4,036.98, and at press time, it was trading around $4,032. The futures market also strengthened, with December gold futures in New York reaching a new high of $4,059.3. So far this year, gold prices have risen 53%, continuing to lead global assets after a 27% increase in 2024.
II. In-depth Analysis of Multiple Driving Factors
1. Monetary Policy Expectations Dominate the Market
Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut continue to strengthen, with futures markets indicating traders are betting on a 25 basis point rate cut this month with an over 80% probability, followed by another in December.
The US government shutdown entered its seventh day, and the release of key economic data has stalled, exacerbating market expectations of a policy shift.
2. Geopolitical Risks Continue to Fester
International events such as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the stalemate in the war in Ukraine continue to intensify safe-haven demand.
Global political uncertainty is driving large-scale capital flows toward safe-haven assets such as gold.
3. Structural Demand Provides Long-Term Support
The de-dollarization of global central bank foreign exchange reserves is accelerating.
Physical gold ETFs are seeing substantial inflows.
Top investment banks have continuously raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs raising its December 2026 target price from $4,300 to $4,900.
III. Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies
Current Trend Positioning
Gold has established a strong bullish pattern. After breaking through the key psychological level of $4,000, the technical outlook suggests an accelerating upward trend.
Key Price Analysis
Resistance: $4060-4070 (short-term target area)
Support: $4020-4010 (initial support), $3980-3975 (key support)
Trading Strategy Recommendations
Key Concept: Follow the trend and focus on buying on pullbacks
Entry Timing:
Advanced traders may consider entering long positions after the price stabilizes in the $4020-4010 support area.
Conservative traders may wait for a pullback to the key support area of $3980-3975 to enter positions in batches.
Risk Control:
If the price falls below the $3980 support area, be wary of a deep pullback to the $3945 area.
Set a strict stop-loss order to control the risk of each trade.
IV. Market Outlook and Risk Warnings
Although short-term technical indicators suggest overbought conditions and a technical pullback is possible, the core factors driving gold's long-term bull market remain solid:
Global debt continues to expand
The US dollar credit system faces challenges
The trend of diversification of reserve assets deepens
Any technical pullback may provide investors with new entry opportunities. Market analysts pointed out that in the current macro environment, $5,000 has become the next key target worthy of attention.
XAU(shows the world’s fear) - BTC(shows the world's hope) What’s Fueling Bitcoin and Gold to All-Time Highs
“Where macro meets momentum.”
Intro: The Tale of Two Safe Havens
Gold and Bitcoin — one ancient, one digital — are both rewriting history.
While their origins could not be more different, their current trajectory reveals something deeper about the state of global liquidity, trust, and capital flow.
Gold has pushed through multi-decade resistance to print new all-time highs. Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold”, isn’t far behind, revisiting historical peaks and attracting institutional capital again.
So, what’s fueling this synchronized surge?
1. Monetary Easing Expectations: The Silent Fuel
One of the strongest forces behind both rallies is expectation specifically, the market’s expectation that interest rates have peaked and liquidity will expand again.
When central banks signal easing, real yields fall.
That hurts cash and bonds, but benefits assets with no yield but high scarcity, like gold and Bitcoin.
US10Y Real Yield versus XAUUSD weekly — note how gold rallies as real yields decline.
You can overly Bitcoin which often lags slightly, then accelerates as liquidity broadens.
“When yield curves flatten and central banks pivot, gold rallies first, Bitcoin later joins the party.”
2. Liquidity & Global Balance Sheet Expansion
Both assets thrive on liquidity expansion.
Look at central bank balance sheets from the Fed, PBoC, and ECB, and you’ll see that total liquidity is creeping higher again, even amid rate-hike talk.
Gold reacts to real rates. Bitcoin reacts to real liquidity.
Both react to trust in the monetary system.
3. Inflation Hedge and the “Trust Crisis”
Gold has always been the metal of mistrust, when confidence in paper weakens, it shines.
Bitcoin inherited that narrative during the post-2008 era and strengthened it through decentralization and scarcity.
Now, both are beneficiaries of the same phenomenon:
The erosion of confidence in fiat systems.
Persistent inflation, record debt, and fiscal expansion across G7 nations are reviving the demand for hard assets.
4. Institutional Rotation and ETF Demand
For Bitcoin, 2024–2025 marked a structural change, the ETF era.
Institutional investors now have a compliant, liquid gateway to Bitcoin exposure, which has quietly unlocked billions in passive inflows.
Gold went through this same transformation in the early 2000s with the launch of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).
The parallel is uncanny ETFs legitimize and absorb demand from new classes of investors.
Compare GLD inflows (2004–2008) vs. BTC Spot ETF inflows (2024–2025).
“The same story, told 20 years apart, first in metal, now in code.”
Institutions love narratives backed by liquidity.
Bitcoin is now walking the same path gold paved two decades ago.
5. Momentum and Market Memory
Markets remember levels — and they respond to them emotionally.
Gold’s prior high near $2,100 acted as psychological resistance for years. Once broken, momentum algos and portfolio reallocations accelerated the move, a textbook resistance-turned-support dynamic.
Bitcoin behaves similarly. Each breakout past an old high (20K in 2017, 69K in 2021) sets off a new wave of belief, often followed by an equal wave of disbelief (profit-taking, skepticism, corrections).
Markets are living memories.
They don’t forget where pain and profit once lived.
6. Correlation Cycles: From Divergence to Convergence
Historically, gold and Bitcoin don’t always move together, their correlation cycles alternate.
But during periods of global liquidity shifts or macro stress, they tend to align.
When fear and liquidity meet, gold and Bitcoin speak the same language — scarcity.
7. The Human Factor: Psychology & Narrative
Ultimately, charts move because people do.
Fear of missing out (FOMO), fear of loss, greed, disbelief, these emotional waves are as much a part of this rally as any macro variable.
Gold buyers think in decades. Bitcoin traders think in blocks.
But both respond to the same core emotion: the need for certainty in uncertain times.
8. What Could Derail the Rally
Every fuel has a flash point.
Delayed rate cuts → Higher real yields hurt both assets.
Liquidity drain → QT or fiscal tightening can pause flows.
Strong USD cycles → Historically inverse correlation to both BTC and XAU.
Regulatory tightening → Can impact Bitcoin specifically, as seen in 2021–2022.
Gold and Bitcoin thrive when dollars are cheap, trust is low, and liquidity is high.
Conclusion: Two Mirrors, One Message
Gold tells us where the world’s fear lies.
Bitcoin tells us where the world’s hope lies.
Both reaching all-time highs together is not coincidence, it’s signal.
A signal that liquidity, inflation, and trust are converging in ways unseen since the 1970s and early 2010s.
So whether you prefer the metal or the math, remember this:
“When scarcity assets rise together, the world is quietly pricing in the cost of confidence.”
my takeaway is :
Stay curious.
Study the cause, not just the price.
And remember, what’s fueling the rally is not hype.
It’s trust being re-priced.
put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd