Gold prices fell as expected,The next big opportunity is brewingGold Technical Analysis: Let's first discuss why the price has fallen so sharply, and the core point hits the nail on the head! Expectations for a Fed rate cut have completely cooled down! This is the most direct trigger! Recent US ADP employment data has surged higher than expected, suggesting the economy isn't as weak as it seemed. The previously certain "December rate cut" has now completely changed, with some institutions even saying there might only be one rate cut this year! It's important to understand that gold is a non-interest-bearing asset. As interest rates are expected to rise, the cost of holding gold increases, causing funds that previously rushed to buy to immediately withdraw. With a wave of selling, how can the price of gold not collapse?
Today, after gold broke through the key support level of 4150, we suggested shorting. As expected, it fell sharply. Unfortunately, gold continued to decline without giving us another chance to rebound. So let's wait patiently for an opportunity. We can't rush into the market in the current situation. Be patient and wait. If there's no opportunity, we'll try again next week. Have a peaceful weekend. As market expectations for a December rate cut continue to decline, gold prices are under increasing pressure.
Tonight, watch the 5-day moving average around 4035-4030 for gold. If it closes below this level today, market sentiment at the beginning of next week will likely be bearish and expect a correction. The 4035-4030 area is quite important, as it was the breakout point for the bulls on Monday and a previous support/resistance level. Given that it's Friday, bears shouldn't be greedy before a breakout and should wait for the weekly close. Normally, a market decline cannot be completed in one go, and a rebound is expected in the 4035-4030 range. As expected, we seized the opportunity to take profits, and the timing was exactly in line with our prediction. The rebound was met with resistance at 4110, and the market continued to fall. This round of decline is heading towards a break below 4000, followed by a test of 3886-3600! In the evening, the focus for gold remained on holding short positions and shorting at higher levels. If the price does not rise above 4120 tonight, short positions can be held over the weekend. Try to maintain a stable approach and wait and observe if there are no good entry points. In summary, today's gold trading strategy is to primarily sell on rallies and secondarily buy on dips. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is 4110-4120, while the key support level is 4030-4000. Please keep up with the pace. It is essential to manage position size and stop-loss orders carefully, strictly set stop-loss orders, and never hold onto losing positions.
