SPOTGOLD trade ideas
Gold Weekly Review and OutlookGold Weekly Review and Outlook | Driven by risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts, gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, poised for a breakout.
📈 Market Review and Current Trends
Spot gold stabilized and rebounded on Friday (October 3rd), breaking through the $3,850 mark and reaching an intraday high of $3,879, an increase of over 0.59%. Gold prices have rebounded significantly from their previous low of $3,838, maintaining a strong bullish trend overall. Two "deep V" reversals occurred during the week, demonstrating strong bargain-hunting buying.📊
🔍 Fundamental Drivers Analysis
1. 🛡️ Safe-haven demand continues to build
The US government shutdown enters its third day, and the political deadlock exacerbates economic uncertainty.
Geopolitical risks loom, and funds continue to flow into safe-haven assets.
2. 💰 Expectations of rate cuts rise again.
The September ISM Services PMI plummeted to 50.0, far below expectations.
The employment component has remained in contraction territory for four consecutive months, reinforcing the Fed's case for rate cuts.
The market is betting on another rate cut at the October FOMC meeting, and the probability continues to rise.
3. 📉 Data vacuum exacerbates volatility.
Delays in the release of the non-farm payroll report and CPI data due to the government shutdown.
The Fed's decision-making is shrouded in a "data fog," increasing uncertainty about its policy path.
📊 Technical Analysis from Multiple Dimensions
1. Key Position Analysis
🟢 Support Area: 3860-3865 (previous resistance turned support) → 3838 (Thursday's low) → 3820 (strong support).
🔴 Resistance Area: 3895-3900 (Historical High)
2. Indicator Signal Analysis
The 4-hour chart has stabilized above the 21-period SMA (3864), indicating a bullish structure.
The RSI has retreated from the overbought zone to the neutral level of 61, suggesting a potential resumption of the upward trend after consolidation.
The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands suggests a period of high volatility between 3895 and 3850.
🎯 Trading Strategy and Layout for Next Week
Core Concept: Buy on dips, wait for a breakout.
Main Strategy: Arrange long positions in batches upon a pullback to the 3850-3860 area.
Risk Management Tips: A successful break below 3820 signals short-term weakness and warrants reassessment.
Breakout Signal: A firm break above 3895 will initiate a new round of upside.
Rhythm Control:
⏰ Focus on upward momentum in the Asian and European sessions.
⏰ Be wary of technical pullbacks in the US session.
⏰ Position for reversal opportunities during the midnight session.
⚠️ Risk Warning and Outlook
If the government shutdown continues, it could further disrupt market sentiment.
Delayed data releases exacerbate policy uncertainty, and volatility may remain elevated.
The overall trend remains unchanged, but caution should be exercised against the risk of a market shakeout at elevated levels.
💎 Summary
Gold maintains a structural bull market, driven by the dual engines of safe-haven and interest rate cuts. Short-term volatility is simply building momentum for a breakout. Traders should remain patient and adhere to the principle of "pullbacks are opportunities, breakouts are trends" to navigate this volatile market steadily.
🔥 Follow us for early positioning strategies and real-time price updates for next week's non-farm payroll figures!
Gold Sell Setup With Key Upside Levels Gold has rallied up to 4600 plus pips since September. Now this area is extremely important, price has approached this area and got rejected multiple times. If bulls managed to break 3900 than expect gold to rally up to 3950.
But if this area gets rejected again than I’m expecting a solid Sell off which is due now. Plus we cannot ignore Israel Gaza situation, if everything goes well with Trump plan than Selling pressure will be on Gold.
If resistance on daily gets rejected than I’ll sell and my targets will be support levels
S1 - 3840
S2 - 3780
S3 - 3750
S4 - 3700
S5 - 3650-30
Now most important thing if price approaches any of these levels and gets rejected on daily tf than I’ll buy so if price goes down book partials at these levels and place sl at entry to make Sells risk free.
Gold at $4,000: A Major Milestone — or the Start of a Pullback?Gold just hit the $4,000 mark — a massive psychological level after one of the strongest rallies in years 🚀
Fueled by Middle East conflicts, the metal’s performance has been insane: +278% from the 2015 low and +130% from the 2022 correction low.
Now, with a ceasefire announcement in play, institutions might start taking profits. Could this be the pivot point before a short-term bearish move?
What do you think — will gold keep climbing to new highs, or is it time for a correction?
Drop your thoughts below 👇
GOLD hits new peak with global crisisSpot OANDA:XAUUSD continued to climb in Asia on October 7, approaching the all-time high of $4,000 an ounce, amid global markets rocked by political turmoil in the US and Europe.
Gold had earlier gained 1.9% in the first session of the week, reaching $3,976.25 an ounce, despite a stronger US dollar and high US bond yields.
In Washington, the budget impasse continues to drag the US government into a second week of shutdown. Both spending bills proposed by Democrats and Republicans failed to pass the Senate.
The shutdown is costing the US economy about $15 billion a week, or 0.1 percentage point of GDP, according to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. If it lasts a month, the consequences could be 43,000 jobs lost and as much as $30 billion in lost spending.
The lack of economic data due to the shutdown has also made it difficult for the Federal Reserve to assess the situation and make decisions on interest rates. However, the market is still pricing in the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25% this month, a factor that is seen as a strong support for gold, which is a non-interest-bearing asset.
In Europe, things were less calm. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu abruptly resigned just hours before a new cabinet was to be announced, deepening the political deadlock and threatening efforts to rein in the budget deficit in the country with the highest debt in the eurozone.
Meanwhile, in Japan, the prospect of Sanae Takaichi becoming the new Prime Minister has also made investors cautious, as monetary policy and public spending may continue to be loosened.
Gold prices have increased by nearly 50% this year, supported by the Fed's interest rate cuts, a wave of gold purchases from central banks, and escalating global geopolitical tensions, once again affirming the precious metal's position as the "last refuge" of the international financial market.
Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD
Main Trend
• Gold prices are in a strong and sustainable uptrend, as shown by:
o The price line is firmly above the medium-term MA line, with a clear positive slope.
o The uptrend channel (parallel trendline) has not been broken yet, and prices continue to remain within the upper zone of the channel.
o RSI remains above 60, indicating that buying power is still dominant.
Important zones
• Strong resistance: 4,000 USD/oz, this is a major psychological level, also coincides with the Fibonacci 0.236 zone.
• Near support: around 3,895 – 3,870 USD/oz, which is the confluence of the lower edge of the rising channel and the old peak zone.
Note
If the price breaks decisively above $4,000 with high volume, the target can be extended to the $4,280 – $4,405 zone.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4000 - 3998⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4004
→Take Profit 1 3992
↨
→Take Profit 2 3986
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3919 - 3921⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3915
→Take Profit 1 3927
↨
→Take Profit 2 3933
Gold Nears $4000, BofA Warns of Mid-Cycle Correction 🚀 XAUUSD – Daily Trading Plan| MMFLOW TRADING
📊 Market Context
Gold is pushing toward the $4,000/oz milestone, but a fresh warning from Bank of America has traders on alert. Strategist Paul Ciana points out that gold is currently trading 20% above its 200-day moving average — a level that historically preceded sharp corrections (2008, 2011, 2020, 2022).
That said, mid-term forecasts from Goldman Sachs, UBS, and even BofA still project gold could reach $4,200–$4,900/oz in the coming year. The long-term bullish trend remains intact, but in the short term, the risk of sudden corrections is high as the market shakes out FOMO-driven buying pressure.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
Price is consolidating near the ATH Zone and major liquidity levels around 3990–4000.
Buy Zone: 3935–3933 (CP zone & FVG reaction) – attractive area to reload long positions.
Sell Zone: 3993–3995 (Liquidity Zone) – a potential trap area as gold tests the $4000 psychological mark.
🔑 Key Levels
BUY Zones: 3935–3933, with main support at 3910.
SELL Zone: 3993–3995 (watch liquidity reaction).
Psychological resistance: 4000.
📈 Trading Scenarios & Plan
✅ BUY ZONE 1: 3935–3933
SL: 3927
TP: 3940 - 3945 - 3950 - 3960 - 3970 - 3980 - ???
✅ SELL ZONE: 3993–3995
SL: 4000
TP: 3988 - 3984 - 3980 - 3970 - 3960 - ???
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
The 3990–4000 zone is a heavy liquidity cluster — expect false breakouts before reversals.
Only enter trades with clear price action confirmation; avoid chasing FOMO near the highs.
Adjust position sizing carefully, as volatility may spike while markets debate the risk of a “mid-cycle correction.”
✅ Summary
Gold remains in a long-term bullish trend, but traders must respect short-term risks. MMFLOW prioritises buys at 3935–3933 while keeping a cautious eye on the 3993–3995 sell zone near the $4000 mark. Upside targets point toward 3980+, with potential for higher extensions if momentum holds.
📢 Stay tuned with MMFLOW TRADING for real-time updates and BIGWIN setups as gold tests historic highs!
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Super Cycle, Macro & Sub-Macro Wave Breakdown📈 GOLD (XAU/USD) – Super Cycle, Macro & Sub-Macro Wave Breakdown (1971–2026+)
Elliott Wave | Fibonacci | Smart Money | Price Action | Long-Term Technical Outlook
🧭 Summary
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently unfolding a historic Super Cycle Wave ③ , which began in 2000 . The wave structure is supported by Fibonacci precision, Smart Money behavior, and Macroeconomic alignment.
We are currently in Macro Wave (v) of Super Cycle ③ — subdividing into a micro 5-wave impulse — with Wave 3 in progress and targeting ~$4,500 , and the final Wave 5 expected to reach $6,000+ before a multi-year correction begins.
🔱 Super Cycle Waves (1971–2026)
Super Cycle Wave ① (1971–1980) – “The Fiat Escape”
Gold surged from $35 to ~$850 after the end of the gold standard
Strong 5-wave impulse as inflation exploded and fiat credibility dropped
Wave 3 was dominant; Wave 5 ended in speculative mania
This wave established gold as a hedge against inflation and monetary collapse
Super Cycle Wave ② (1980–2000) – “The Structural Reset”
Multi-decade correction after the parabolic rise
Price fell from ~$850 to ~$250, forming a complex A–B–C structure
Long accumulation period with institutional repositioning
Deep ~0.786% retracement of Wave ① — typical for Wave ②
Set the stage for a massive base leading into Wave ③
Super Cycle Wave ③ (2000–2026+) – “The Great Expansion Phase” (In Progress)
Started from ~$250 in 2000, expected to end near $6,000+ by 2026
Divides into five Macro Waves: (i) to (v)
Currently in Macro Wave (v) , subdividing into five Micro/Sub-Macro Waves
🔹 Macro Wave Breakdown (within Super Cycle ③)
Macro Wave (i): 2000–2006
Breakout above 1980 ATHs — confirmed start of Super Cycle ③
Early Smart Money accumulation
Wave structure: clean impulse with confirmation of macro trend shift
Macro Wave (ii): 2006–2008
Sharp correction to ~0.618% retracement
Bottomed during 2008 financial crisis
Set institutional demand zone and final BOS before liftoff
Macro Wave (iii): 2008–2011
Strongest wave in the macro structure — classic Wave ③ behavior
Price exploded to ~$1,900
Momentum, volume, and sentiment peaked
Macro Wave (iv): 2011–2015/16
Prolonged correction in ABCDE triangle or complex flat form
Ended near 0.618 retracement
Time-based correction — Smart Money reaccumulated
Macro Wave (v): 2016–2026 (In Progress)
Final macro impulse subdividing into 5 Micro/Sub-Macro waves
Currently in Micro Wave 3 — targeting ~$4,500
Final Wave 5 could push price above $6,000
🔻 Sub-Macro / Micro Wave Breakdown (within Macro Wave (v))
Micro Wave 1: 2016–2020
Strong impulse breaking above 2011 highs
Structural BOS confirmed new bullish expansion
Micro Wave 2: 2020–2018 (In Time Overlap)
~0.618 retracement back to OB zone near $1,680–$1,750
Clean liquidity sweep and reaccumulation phase
Micro Wave 3: 2018–2025 (Active)
Currently unfolding — strongest leg of this impulse
Fibonacci 1.618 extension projects target at ~$4,500
BOS and volume confirm trend continuation
Micro Wave 4: Projected 2026
Expected shallow correction or time-based pullback
Will likely form a flat or zigzag pattern
Targeting 0.236%–0.382% retracement of Wave 3
Micro Wave 5: 2027–2028
Final push toward $6,000–$6,500
Completion of Macro Wave (v) and Super Cycle Wave ③
Followed by potential multi-year Wave ④ correction
📐 Fibonacci Highlights Across All Degrees
Macro Wave (ii) retraced ~0.618 of (i)
Macro Wave (iv) retraced ~0.50 of (iii)
Micro Wave 2 retraced ~0.618 of Micro Wave 1
Micro Wave 3 targets 1.618 extension → ~$4,500
Macro Wave (v) targets 3.618 of (i)–(iii) → $6,045–$6,500
🧠 Smart Money Confluence
Breaks of Structure after each key wave completion confirm direction
Institutional Order Blocks respected in Wave (ii), (iv), and Micro Wave 2
Engineered liquidity sweeps prior to major expansions
Price compressions and OB retests act as Smart Money footprints
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
$2,956–$3,120 – Institutional OB and structural support
$3,977 – BoS zone; breakout above confirms Wave 3 continuation
$4,500 – Projected top of Micro Wave 3
$6,045–$6,500 – Final Super Cycle Wave ③ target range
🔮 What Comes After Wave ③?
Once Super Cycle Wave ③ completes:
Expect a multi-year Wave ④ correction
Likely a complex flat or triangle structure
Possible consolidation between $4,000–$5,000
Could last several years before final Wave ⑤ begins
🧾 Final Outlook
We are in a major macro impulse, with alignment across all wave degrees:
✅ Super Cycle ③ still in progress
✅ Macro Wave (v) active since 2016
✅ Micro Wave 3 unfolding now toward ~$4,500
✅ Final Micro Wave 5 to push toward $6,000+
✅ All retracements and extensions respect Fibonacci precision
✅ Smart Money structure confirms trend continuation
This remains a historic bullish opportunity in gold, possibly concluding the most powerful wave in the modern history of the metal.
📘 DISCLAIMER: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management
#Gold #XAUUSD #ElliottWave #WaveTheory #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
The long position of 3935 gold is making a huge profit!The market is always full of possibilities. There is no so-called "highest point", only higher possibilities. When the trend is clearly upward, going with the flow is the core strategy to achieve stable profits. Avoid trading against the trend or based on emotions, especially in the current volatile market environment. Trading without clear thinking and discipline can easily lead to unnecessary losses. This is something I've been emphasizing. For those who are still on the sidelines and haven't yet developed an effective trading strategy, please follow my channel. We will continue to provide professional market analysis, comprehensive trading plans, and precise buy and sell instructions to help you better grasp the market's rhythm.
I am not surprised by the sharp rise in gold prices at the opening. Those who have read my views know that the current trend is basically consistent with my prediction, and reaching 3900 is within expectations. Since last week, we have been emphasizing that the bullish trend of gold remains unchanged. On Thursday and Friday, we established long positions in gold at 3840-3855-3874, including buying at 3893 at the beginning of the opening. This is based on the technical analysis and news analysis, which makes us dare to be so firmly bullish.
Last Friday, despite a surge and then a decline, gold prices remained volatile at high levels. Market expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, coupled with high uncertainty regarding global geopolitical risks and the economic outlook, continued to provide stable support for gold prices, maintaining their upward trend. In particular, the recent US government shutdown crisis has stimulated rising risk aversion sentiment, helping gold prices to rise further, and the market's concerns about a long-term US government shutdown have intensified.
Judging from the gold daily chart, gold prices rebounded sharply last Friday and recorded a large real body positive candlestick pattern. Although the sharp rebound in prices last Friday failed to break through the previous high, gold prices continued to rise after opening high this week. In addition, the moving average cluster maintained a bullish arrangement, and the MACD indicator double lines maintained a golden cross operation process, indicating that the current trend is under the control of bulls.
The short-term trading strategy continues with last week's buy-on-low strategy!
There are many areas in 393-3925, the target is 3945, pay attention to the breakthrough of 3950, if it breaks through, look higher!
The above is the gold signal opinion published four hours ago. The first target of 3945 has been successfully reached. It is also correct to continue to be bullish after breaking through 3950. The accurate prediction perfectly matches the current gold trend. Welcome to click to view the original text!
Gold is preparing a pause before a new breakthroughOn the 30-minute chart, gold remains inside the ascending channel but is showing local signs of overheating: price hit resistance around 3875 and pulled back.
The technical setup suggests a correction towards the channel support and the 0.5–0.618 Fibo zone (3833–3823), where buyers are expected to step in. If support holds, the bullish trend may resume with targets at 3909 and 3941.
Volume indicates selling pressure at highs, but the overall trend remains intact - moving averages are pointing upward, and the higher-high structure is still valid.
Tactical plan: watch how the 3833–3823 zone reacts; if buyers confirm control, gold has room for another strong push.
And if bulls rush without giving a pullback - that’s the classic “market never waits for your comfy chair” scenario.
Gold Update If Candle Break 3999 - on 1 hour Chart"
then we can expect market to fall down "
Target Level - 3948
Can Formed double top chart pattern 🔥🔥🔥
............................
If not market will be on sideways
HI Retail Trader.
Check Below Chart
This subject to Educational Purpose"
Please Do your own Analyzation and Use Proper Risk - Money management
And Trade"
Smart Money Concept
XAUUSD; Continues To Surge Higher..XAUUSD have fulfilled our previous idea on reaching 4000 ATH, it have persistently keep mounting up. The risk of the U.S government closed down has also led investors and traders to move to gold as safe haven, contributing to the remarkable price increase. We might expect a slight retracement down to 4000-3950 as the next key support before a scale toward 4120 as possible highs remains intact.
Meanwhile XAUUSD resume its climb inside the uptrend region with a range of higher lows and higher highs, showing encouraged bullish momentum.
Like and follow up
Thanks as you share your opinion on this
GOLD GOLD ,WE CALLED FOR BREAK AND retest at 4017-4020 and used our send down the rain strategy to get into sniper at 4004,4009 4003
the aim is to spot a key level on 4hr/3hr and look for point of entry on lower time frame
watch break of supply roof as 4100 is looking at London or 3875-3880-3990 they will get one
Gold price broke the rising channel twice in 3 days.
News:
The dual support of closure and interest rate cuts
The underlying logic of the current market is rooted in the amplification of fundamental uncertainty. The US government shutdown has lasted for a week, which has not only suppressed the release of economic data but also increased the market's sensitivity to Fed policy. Expectations of interest rate cuts have become one of the "twin engines," and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the October 29 meeting has risen to 95%, providing gold with the dual benefits of inflation hedging and reduced opportunity costs. Well-known institutional analysts pointed out that if the employment data released after the shutdown is weak, it will further consolidate bullish expectations.
Geopolitical factors offer short-term flashpoints. The progress of Middle East ceasefire negotiations is attracting significant attention. If successfully concluded, it could shave 2-3% off the safe-haven premium, leading to a short-term price drop. Conversely, developments in eastern Russia and Ukraine or escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could instantly ignite bullish sentiment, pushing the price up to around 4050. Political fragmentation in Europe, such as the French budget crisis and leadership changes in Japan, are also considered undervalued variables: these events could weaken the euro, indirectly strengthening the dollar's relative strength and weighing on gold.
Specifically:
On Wednesday, the price of gold continued to hold above the $4,000 mark, which is in line with our bullish expectations. Channel members have made profits based on the signals. This trend represents two breakouts from the ascending channel over the past three trading days, marking the three fastest days of this upward trend. This acceleration undoubtedly marks a recent sentiment high for gold prices, which are often attractive points for profit-taking.
The 4-hour chart of spot gold clearly outlines a strong upward trend. Since the recent low, the price has formed a "stair-step" upward structure. Each upward wave has been accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume, indicating an orderly advance of long funds.
The candlestick chart has broken through the upper Bollinger Band at 4030 and briefly touched the all-time high of 4040. This not only confirms a strong trend reversal but also reinforces the market's allocation to safe-haven assets.
The moving average system also supports this view: the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) at 3866 is sloping upward and acting as dynamic support, while shorter-term moving averages such as the 4036 MA closely follow the price upward, forming a bullish formation and preventing the risk of price isolation at high levels.
Strategy:
Long Position4020-4025,SL:4010,Target:4050,4075
Confirming Our Previous Analysis Towards 4000Our previous analysis beat all 2 price pullback moves pushing the price to breakout of the region
The asset has a nice pattern to reach 4000, this week promises to be volatile, we will have payroll on Friday
We are close to starting a price consolidation, but before that we will still have a lot of liquidity fluctuations.
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 10/6/2025Although in my weekly post, gold is very bullish and selling should be avoided at this moment, it is facing a strong resistance at 3895. If 3895 is broken, we may see 3925-3945. Alternatively, if gold retrace to 3865, we could buy toward 3895. Again, I will only engage buying order for today. Let's see how the market plays out.
GOLD DAILY – MACRO PERSPECTIVE FOR LONG-TERM GOLD
Hello everyone 👋
Today is the weekend, let's review gold's movements to gain insights for the upcoming trading week.
The weekly candle closed at 3,886.5 – a high level that most investors did not anticipate. The nearly full bullish daily candle has strongly reinforced the main bullish trend of gold in the medium and long term.
🔎 Technical Perspective
Analyzing through Fibonacci extension, the next target for gold is at 4,000, coinciding with the 1.618 Fibo level and an important psychological resistance zone.
This is a confluence zone between technical and psychological factors, expected to have a strong reaction when the price approaches this area.
The current uptrend is almost unwavering, bolstered by macro factors – U.S. political instability is causing uncertainty for the USD.
💡 Macro Perspective
The U.S. government shutdown is indefinite, economic data is delayed, causing market confusion.
USD weakens, while gold becomes a safe haven.
This context continues to reinforce the long-term uptrend of gold, especially as investors seek value-preserving assets.
⚖️ Long-term Scenarios and Strategies
1️⃣ Long-term Buy Scenario:
Entry: 3,640 – 3,650 zone
Reason: This is a strong support area on the Volume Profile chart, where large liquidity is concentrated.
When the price returns to this area, the pressure of profit-taking and position unwinding from trapped traders will create a strong price rebound effect.
This is the most potential buying zone in the medium term.
2️⃣ Short/Medium-term Reaction Sell Scenario:
Entry: around 4,000
Reason: This is a confluence resistance zone of technical (Fibo 1.618) and psychological (round number) factors.
Prioritize short-term reactionary selling, capturing the pullback if gold hits a peak.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
Trading on larger time frames requires capital and good management skills, as stop-loss ranges are wider compared to shorter frames.
Do not enter trades too early without confirmation signals from the price zone.
Always clearly define the time frame and profit expectations before entering a trade.
📈 Summary:
The long-term trend of gold remains bullish, with a medium-term target towards $4,000.
Buying around 3,640 is a beautiful price zone to accumulate a long-term position.
Sell reaction around 4,000 if there is a clear reversal signal.
👉 If you want to follow daily updated scenarios, follow me
Gold Market In-Depth Analysis Gold Market In-Depth Analysis | A wave of "downtrading" sweeps across the market, poised for a breakout in gold prices
1. A New Market Paradigm: The Rise of the "Downtrading"
A recent report from JPMorgan Chase indicates that retail investors, driven by fear of missing out (FOMO), are pouring into alternative assets like gold, creating a "downtrading" trend. Driving factors include:
🛡️ Heightened geopolitical and policy uncertainty
💸 Concerns about "debt devaluation" and government deficits
🌍 Declining confidence in fiat currencies in emerging markets
🔄 Global assets shift away from the US dollar toward diversified allocations
II. Capital Flows and Market Structure
ETF demand explodes
GLD, the world's largest gold ETF, saw a record inflow of 35.2 tons in September
A single-day inflow of 18.9 tons was a record high, indicating accelerated capital inflows
Central bank gold purchases have become normalized
Global official gold reserves have increased by over 1,000 tons per year for three consecutive years
Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset
Speculative positions still have room to grow
CFTC speculative holdings are below their 2016 peak
ETF holdings remain far from their 2020 high, suggesting significant potential for incremental capital
III. Technical Analysis: A shakeout or a reversal? Key Levels
🟢 Support: 3840-3850 (bull-bear watershed) → 3820-3830 (strong support zone)
🔴 Resistance: 3890-3900 (previous high pressure zone)
Trend Analysis
The 4-hour chart shows wide range fluctuations at high levels. Yesterday's sharp drop was more of a wash-out than a trend reversal. Bulls have repeatedly reclaimed 3850 and tested its validity, maintaining the overall bullish trend.📊
IV. Trading Strategy and Risk Control
🎯 Main Strategy: Bullish with a volatile outlook, choose opportune positions
Long Position: Enter the 3860-3855 area, stop-loss at 3848, target 3870 (reduce position) → 3900 (hold if breakout)
Alternative Plan: If the market stabilizes at 3820-3830, re-enter long positions.
Risk Control Warning: A significant break below 3820 indicates short-term weakness, with a target of 3790-3800.
V. Forward Guidance
Data Focus: Another surprise in tonight's ADP and non-farm payroll data could reinforce expectations of a rate cut.
Breakthrough Signal: If gold prices stabilize at 3900, a new round of upside will begin. 🚀
Silver Linkage: Silver's bullish momentum is strong and may attract wider retail participation.
The "depreciation trade" trend is gaining momentum, and the foundation for a structural bull market in gold is solid! Seize the opportunity to layout after the market shakeout and follow the trend to win 💎