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GOLD (XAU/USD) – Super Cycle, Macro & Sub-Macro Wave Breakdown📈 GOLD (XAU/USD) – Super Cycle, Macro & Sub-Macro Wave Breakdown (1971–2026+) Elliott Wave | Fibonacci | Smart Money | Price Action | Long-Term Technical Outlook 🧭 Summary Gold (XAU/USD) is currently unfolding a historic Super Cycle Wave ③ , which began in 2000 . The wave structure is supported by Fibonacci precision, Smart Money behavior, and Macroeconomic alignment. We are currently in Macro Wave (v) of Super Cycle ③ — subdividing into a micro 5-wave impulse — with Wave 3 in progress and targeting ~$4,500 , and the final Wave 5 expected to reach $6,000+ before a multi-year correction begins. 🔱 Super Cycle Waves (1971–2026) Super Cycle Wave ① (1971–1980) – “The Fiat Escape” Gold surged from $35 to ~$850 after the end of the gold standard Strong 5-wave impulse as inflation exploded and fiat credibility dropped Wave 3 was dominant; Wave 5 ended in speculative mania This wave established gold as a hedge against inflation and monetary collapse Super Cycle Wave ② (1980–2000) – “The Structural Reset” Multi-decade correction after the parabolic rise Price fell from ~$850 to ~$250, forming a complex A–B–C structure Long accumulation period with institutional repositioning Deep ~0.786% retracement of Wave ① — typical for Wave ② Set the stage for a massive base leading into Wave ③ Super Cycle Wave ③ (2000–2026+) – “The Great Expansion Phase” (In Progress) Started from ~$250 in 2000, expected to end near $6,000+ by 2026 Divides into five Macro Waves: (i) to (v) Currently in Macro Wave (v) , subdividing into five Micro/Sub-Macro Waves 🔹 Macro Wave Breakdown (within Super Cycle ③) Macro Wave (i): 2000–2006 Breakout above 1980 ATHs — confirmed start of Super Cycle ③ Early Smart Money accumulation Wave structure: clean impulse with confirmation of macro trend shift Macro Wave (ii): 2006–2008 Sharp correction to ~0.618% retracement Bottomed during 2008 financial crisis Set institutional demand zone and final BOS before liftoff Macro Wave (iii): 2008–2011 Strongest wave in the macro structure — classic Wave ③ behavior Price exploded to ~$1,900 Momentum, volume, and sentiment peaked Macro Wave (iv): 2011–2015/16 Prolonged correction in ABCDE triangle or complex flat form Ended near 0.618 retracement Time-based correction — Smart Money reaccumulated Macro Wave (v): 2016–2026 (In Progress) Final macro impulse subdividing into 5 Micro/Sub-Macro waves Currently in Micro Wave 3 — targeting ~$4,500 Final Wave 5 could push price above $6,000 🔻 Sub-Macro / Micro Wave Breakdown (within Macro Wave (v)) Micro Wave 1: 2016–2020 Strong impulse breaking above 2011 highs Structural BOS confirmed new bullish expansion Micro Wave 2: 2020–2018 (In Time Overlap) ~0.618 retracement back to OB zone near $1,680–$1,750 Clean liquidity sweep and reaccumulation phase Micro Wave 3: 2018–2025 (Active) Currently unfolding — strongest leg of this impulse Fibonacci 1.618 extension projects target at ~$4,500 BOS and volume confirm trend continuation Micro Wave 4: Projected 2026 Expected shallow correction or time-based pullback Will likely form a flat or zigzag pattern Targeting 0.236%–0.382% retracement of Wave 3 Micro Wave 5: 2027–2028 Final push toward $6,000–$6,500 Completion of Macro Wave (v) and Super Cycle Wave ③ Followed by potential multi-year Wave ④ correction 📐 Fibonacci Highlights Across All Degrees Macro Wave (ii) retraced ~0.618 of (i) Macro Wave (iv) retraced ~0.50 of (iii) Micro Wave 2 retraced ~0.618 of Micro Wave 1 Micro Wave 3 targets 1.618 extension → ~$4,500 Macro Wave (v) targets 3.618 of (i)–(iii) → $6,045–$6,500 🧠 Smart Money Confluence Breaks of Structure after each key wave completion confirm direction Institutional Order Blocks respected in Wave (ii), (iv), and Micro Wave 2 Engineered liquidity sweeps prior to major expansions Price compressions and OB retests act as Smart Money footprints 🔑 Key Levels to Watch $2,956–$3,120 – Institutional OB and structural support $3,977 – BoS zone; breakout above confirms Wave 3 continuation $4,500 – Projected top of Micro Wave 3 $6,045–$6,500 – Final Super Cycle Wave ③ target range 🔮 What Comes After Wave ③? Once Super Cycle Wave ③ completes: Expect a multi-year Wave ④ correction Likely a complex flat or triangle structure Possible consolidation between $4,000–$5,000 Could last several years before final Wave ⑤ begins 🧾 Final Outlook We are in a major macro impulse, with alignment across all wave degrees: ✅ Super Cycle ③ still in progress ✅ Macro Wave (v) active since 2016 ✅ Micro Wave 3 unfolding now toward ~$4,500 ✅ Final Micro Wave 5 to push toward $6,000+ ✅ All retracements and extensions respect Fibonacci precision ✅ Smart Money structure confirms trend continuation This remains a historic bullish opportunity in gold, possibly concluding the most powerful wave in the modern history of the metal. 📘 DISCLAIMER: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management #Gold #XAUUSD #ElliottWave #WaveTheory #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
TVC:GOLDLong
by fibcos
The long position of 3935 gold is making a huge profit!The market is always full of possibilities. There is no so-called "highest point", only higher possibilities. When the trend is clearly upward, going with the flow is the core strategy to achieve stable profits. Avoid trading against the trend or based on emotions, especially in the current volatile market environment. Trading without clear thinking and discipline can easily lead to unnecessary losses. This is something I've been emphasizing. For those who are still on the sidelines and haven't yet developed an effective trading strategy, please follow my channel. We will continue to provide professional market analysis, comprehensive trading plans, and precise buy and sell instructions to help you better grasp the market's rhythm. I am not surprised by the sharp rise in gold prices at the opening. Those who have read my views know that the current trend is basically consistent with my prediction, and reaching 3900 is within expectations. Since last week, we have been emphasizing that the bullish trend of gold remains unchanged. On Thursday and Friday, we established long positions in gold at 3840-3855-3874, including buying at 3893 at the beginning of the opening. This is based on the technical analysis and news analysis, which makes us dare to be so firmly bullish. Last Friday, despite a surge and then a decline, gold prices remained volatile at high levels. Market expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, coupled with high uncertainty regarding global geopolitical risks and the economic outlook, continued to provide stable support for gold prices, maintaining their upward trend. In particular, the recent US government shutdown crisis has stimulated rising risk aversion sentiment, helping gold prices to rise further, and the market's concerns about a long-term US government shutdown have intensified. Judging from the gold daily chart, gold prices rebounded sharply last Friday and recorded a large real body positive candlestick pattern. Although the sharp rebound in prices last Friday failed to break through the previous high, gold prices continued to rise after opening high this week. In addition, the moving average cluster maintained a bullish arrangement, and the MACD indicator double lines maintained a golden cross operation process, indicating that the current trend is under the control of bulls. The short-term trading strategy continues with last week's buy-on-low strategy! There are many areas in 393-3925, the target is 3945, pay attention to the breakthrough of 3950, if it breaks through, look higher! The above is the gold signal opinion published four hours ago. The first target of 3945 has been successfully reached. It is also correct to continue to be bullish after breaking through 3950. The accurate prediction perfectly matches the current gold trend. Welcome to click to view the original text!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Martin_Trading_Guide
XAUUSD; Continues To Surge Higher..XAUUSD have fulfilled our previous idea on reaching 4000 ATH, it have persistently keep mounting up. The risk of the U.S government closed down has also led investors and traders to move to gold as safe haven, contributing to the remarkable price increase. We might expect a slight retracement down to 4000-3950 as the next key support before a scale toward 4120 as possible highs remains intact. Meanwhile XAUUSD resume its climb inside the uptrend region with a range of higher lows and higher highs, showing encouraged bullish momentum. Like and follow up Thanks as you share your opinion on this
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Blaisefxacademy
Gold price broke the rising channel twice in 3 days. News： The dual support of closure and interest rate cuts The underlying logic of the current market is rooted in the amplification of fundamental uncertainty. The US government shutdown has lasted for a week, which has not only suppressed the release of economic data but also increased the market's sensitivity to Fed policy. Expectations of interest rate cuts have become one of the "twin engines," and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the October 29 meeting has risen to 95%, providing gold with the dual benefits of inflation hedging and reduced opportunity costs. Well-known institutional analysts pointed out that if the employment data released after the shutdown is weak, it will further consolidate bullish expectations. Geopolitical factors offer short-term flashpoints. The progress of Middle East ceasefire negotiations is attracting significant attention. If successfully concluded, it could shave 2-3% off the safe-haven premium, leading to a short-term price drop. Conversely, developments in eastern Russia and Ukraine or escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could instantly ignite bullish sentiment, pushing the price up to around 4050. Political fragmentation in Europe, such as the French budget crisis and leadership changes in Japan, are also considered undervalued variables: these events could weaken the euro, indirectly strengthening the dollar's relative strength and weighing on gold. Specifically: On Wednesday, the price of gold continued to hold above the $4,000 mark, which is in line with our bullish expectations. Channel members have made profits based on the signals. This trend represents two breakouts from the ascending channel over the past three trading days, marking the three fastest days of this upward trend. This acceleration undoubtedly marks a recent sentiment high for gold prices, which are often attractive points for profit-taking. The 4-hour chart of spot gold clearly outlines a strong upward trend. Since the recent low, the price has formed a "stair-step" upward structure. Each upward wave has been accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume, indicating an orderly advance of long funds. The candlestick chart has broken through the upper Bollinger Band at 4030 and briefly touched the all-time high of 4040. This not only confirms a strong trend reversal but also reinforces the market's allocation to safe-haven assets. The moving average system also supports this view: the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) at 3866 is sloping upward and acting as dynamic support, while shorter-term moving averages such as the 4036 MA closely follow the price upward, forming a bullish formation and preventing the risk of price isolation at high levels. Strategy： Long Position4020-4025，SL:4010，Target:4050,4075
TVC:GOLDLong
by TheodoreSilas
GOLD DAILY – MACRO PERSPECTIVE FOR LONG-TERM GOLD Hello everyone 👋 Today is the weekend, let's review gold's movements to gain insights for the upcoming trading week. The weekly candle closed at 3,886.5 – a high level that most investors did not anticipate. The nearly full bullish daily candle has strongly reinforced the main bullish trend of gold in the medium and long term. 🔎 Technical Perspective Analyzing through Fibonacci extension, the next target for gold is at 4,000, coinciding with the 1.618 Fibo level and an important psychological resistance zone. This is a confluence zone between technical and psychological factors, expected to have a strong reaction when the price approaches this area. The current uptrend is almost unwavering, bolstered by macro factors – U.S. political instability is causing uncertainty for the USD. 💡 Macro Perspective The U.S. government shutdown is indefinite, economic data is delayed, causing market confusion. USD weakens, while gold becomes a safe haven. This context continues to reinforce the long-term uptrend of gold, especially as investors seek value-preserving assets. ⚖️ Long-term Scenarios and Strategies 1️⃣ Long-term Buy Scenario: Entry: 3,640 – 3,650 zone Reason: This is a strong support area on the Volume Profile chart, where large liquidity is concentrated. When the price returns to this area, the pressure of profit-taking and position unwinding from trapped traders will create a strong price rebound effect. This is the most potential buying zone in the medium term. 2️⃣ Short/Medium-term Reaction Sell Scenario: Entry: around 4,000 Reason: This is a confluence resistance zone of technical (Fibo 1.618) and psychological (round number) factors. Prioritize short-term reactionary selling, capturing the pullback if gold hits a peak. ⚠️ Risk Management Notes Trading on larger time frames requires capital and good management skills, as stop-loss ranges are wider compared to shorter frames. Do not enter trades too early without confirmation signals from the price zone. Always clearly define the time frame and profit expectations before entering a trade. 📈 Summary: The long-term trend of gold remains bullish, with a medium-term target towards $4,000. Buying around 3,640 is a beautiful price zone to accumulate a long-term position. Sell reaction around 4,000 if there is a clear reversal signal. 👉 If you want to follow daily updated scenarios, follow me
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steven-GoldTrading
Gold Market In-Depth Analysis Gold Market In-Depth Analysis | A wave of "downtrading" sweeps across the market, poised for a breakout in gold prices 1. A New Market Paradigm: The Rise of the "Downtrading" A recent report from JPMorgan Chase indicates that retail investors, driven by fear of missing out (FOMO), are pouring into alternative assets like gold, creating a "downtrading" trend. Driving factors include: 🛡️ Heightened geopolitical and policy uncertainty 💸 Concerns about "debt devaluation" and government deficits 🌍 Declining confidence in fiat currencies in emerging markets 🔄 Global assets shift away from the US dollar toward diversified allocations II. Capital Flows and Market Structure ETF demand explodes GLD, the world's largest gold ETF, saw a record inflow of 35.2 tons in September A single-day inflow of 18.9 tons was a record high, indicating accelerated capital inflows Central bank gold purchases have become normalized Global official gold reserves have increased by over 1,000 tons per year for three consecutive years Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset Speculative positions still have room to grow CFTC speculative holdings are below their 2016 peak ETF holdings remain far from their 2020 high, suggesting significant potential for incremental capital III. Technical Analysis: A shakeout or a reversal? Key Levels 🟢 Support: 3840-3850 (bull-bear watershed) → 3820-3830 (strong support zone) 🔴 Resistance: 3890-3900 (previous high pressure zone) Trend Analysis The 4-hour chart shows wide range fluctuations at high levels. Yesterday's sharp drop was more of a wash-out than a trend reversal. Bulls have repeatedly reclaimed 3850 and tested its validity, maintaining the overall bullish trend.📊 IV. Trading Strategy and Risk Control 🎯 Main Strategy: Bullish with a volatile outlook, choose opportune positions Long Position: Enter the 3860-3855 area, stop-loss at 3848, target 3870 (reduce position) → 3900 (hold if breakout) Alternative Plan: If the market stabilizes at 3820-3830, re-enter long positions. Risk Control Warning: A significant break below 3820 indicates short-term weakness, with a target of 3790-3800. V. Forward Guidance Data Focus: Another surprise in tonight's ADP and non-farm payroll data could reinforce expectations of a rate cut. Breakthrough Signal: If gold prices stabilize at 3900, a new round of upside will begin. 🚀 Silver Linkage: Silver's bullish momentum is strong and may attract wider retail participation. The "depreciation trade" trend is gaining momentum, and the foundation for a structural bull market in gold is solid! Seize the opportunity to layout after the market shakeout and follow the trend to win 💎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Gold-Pulse
Gold (XAUUSD) – 10 Oct | Watching Key Zones for Short Setups🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 10 October Hello Disciplined Traders, Welcome to the Chart Is Mirror Community 👋 Market Context • After marking a new all-time high at 4059.350 , Gold is currently in a pullback phase. • CHOCH + BOS have been confirmed on the M15 structure , signaling that H4 may retrace deeper . • Both H4 and M15 structures are now aligned for a short-term downtrend until a structure shift occurs back to the upside. Key Observations • First POI for short setup: 4007–4025 ( M30 OB zone ). • Next potential POI: 4035–4044 ( fractal point zone ) — if retested and respected, it could offer another short opportunity. Execution Plan • Wait for price to pull back to either POI. • If respected with LTF confirmation , plan short setups accordingly. • If price continues forming new structure lows without a pullback, we’ll reassess the chart and plan based on fresh price action. Stay disciplined — structure defines direction, confirmation defines action. 📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartIsMirror
SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)📊 SMC Analysis – GOLD 15M • After the push into the distribution zone and reaching 4,060, price formed a higher low (HL) before dropping with a Break of Structure (BOS). • We then saw a fake out into the FVG, followed by a rejection at the support zone. • Current projection: institutions may use this reset to accumulate, preparing for a new distribution leg toward the target at 4,049. • Market remains valid for a bullish continuation as long as the support zone holds. 🚀 This setup shows the power of patience: wait for liquidity grabs, respect support, and follow the structure toward new highs.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
Analysis of the latest gold price trends today!Market News： Spot gold prices suddenly plummeted in early Asian trading on Thursday, extending their intraday losses to around $40, hitting a low of $4,001. News broke that a ceasefire agreement had been reached in Gaza. US President Trump stated that Israel and Hamas had mutually accepted a phased peace plan, and all detainees would be released soon. This sudden turn in the Middle East geopolitical landscape—the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel—quickly cooled market risk aversion. Be wary of the possibility that this factor could prompt further profit-taking, triggering a sharp correction in gold prices. At the same time, pay attention to any support from bargain-hunting buying! While international gold prices have performed strongly in 2025, the pullback triggered by the Hamas ceasefire agreement reminds us that the market is not a one-way street. In the short term, international gold prices may fluctuate around $4,000, depending on the stability of the Middle East situation and the recovery of US economic data. Technical Analysis: Gold reached a new high of 4059.07 in late trading, then retreated to close at 4038. It opened at 4040 in the Asian morning session before coming under pressure and falling sharply to 4001. The daily chart shows a series of consecutive positive days, and the price remains within an upward trend. The 5-day and 7-day moving averages (MAs) remain upward. However, the RSI indicator is overbought above 80, so watch for a rebound and a short-term correction in gold prices. This correction could signal a short-term volatile correction. Today's trading strategy: Sell high and buy low, anticipating a period of wide range-bound trading. Looking at the 4-hour chart, focus on short-term support below the 4000-3990 level. The bullish trend is strong and there's no end in sight. Buy on dips. At intermediate levels, be cautious and follow orders cautiously, patiently waiting for key entry points. All bearish candlesticks can be considered corrections for short-term buying, not reversals. From this point of view, placing a sell order at any time could be a mistake. Waiting for a dip after the surge may offer a slight opportunity to enter the market! Trading Strategy: Short-term gold buy at 4000-4003, stop loss at 3992, target at 4060-4080; Short-term gold sell at 4067-4070, stop loss at 4079, target at 4000-4010; Key Points: First Support Level: 4001, Second Support Level: 3988, Third Support Level: 3975 First Resistance Level: 4048, Second Resistance Level: 4059, Third Resistance Level: 4072
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenBigAge
XAUUSD: October 6 Market Analysis and StrategyGold Technical Analysis Weekly chart resistance: 4000, support: 3683. Daily chart resistance: 3950, support: 3819. Four-hour chart resistance: 3950, support: 3879. One-hour chart resistance: 3950, support: 3919. Gold continues its upward trend. This seemingly sudden surge is actually the inevitable result of the combined forces of monetary policy expectations, political risks, and geopolitical conflicts. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, is attracting investors. Gold Trading Recommendations: Based on the four-hour chart, focus on the effective support levels below, which remain at 3919-3879. Focus on the 3950 level for upward pressure. If the 3919 support fails, the maximum retracement limit is around 3879. In terms of trading, wait for a pullback before looking for support levels to buy. BUY: 3919near BUY: 3879near
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ActuaryJ
Analysis of today's gold price trend!Market News: Spot gold maintained its strength during Asian trading on Tuesday (October 7), reaching a new high near $3,977 this morning, just shy of $4,000. The US government shutdown and political unrest in France and Japan have intensified risk aversion, supporting international gold prices. Furthermore, hopes for further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have also benefited London gold prices. With no signs of a US government restart, political uncertainty in the US has fueled buying interest in gold. So far this year, gold prices have risen 50%, breaking through $3,000/ounce in March, crossing $3,800/ounce at the end of September, and are now heading for even higher peaks. In a low-interest environment and economic uncertainty, non-interest-bearing gold has become a popular asset among investors, and the market generally believes this trend will continue, potentially reaching a staggering $4,200/ounce by the end of the year. Technical Analysis: Gold maintains a strong bullish buying pattern, reaching a new all-time high of $3,977 and approaching the $4,000 mark. Technically, the gold axis and daily RSI indicators have reached overbought levels above 80. Continued buying volume is pushing prices upwards, extending the 5-day moving average. Gold prices are trading within the upper Bollinger Bands on both the four-hour and daily charts, with the moving averages maintaining an upward trend. Gold's daily charts are all large bullish candlesticks, a $700 increase in just one and a half months. Isn't that terrifying? From 3310 straight to 4000 points, all large bullish candlesticks, all green lights, with no signs of any pullback. The technical outlook is clearly bullish, primarily due to the US government's vote failing and the continued government shutdown. Gold's safe-haven status is inevitable. Buy at 3930 support! Gold has been trading in a buy-one-step-back-three-step-in pattern for a while now. After a short-term correction in the hourly moving average, gold stabilized and continued to rise. The hourly moving average continues to diverge, indicating continued upward buying momentum. Gold's pullbacks offer further buying opportunities. Focus on the short-term support level at 3930 below. Continue buying if it doesn't break through. Treat this as a buy-to-rise strategy, and treat pullbacks as entry points! Strategy: Short-term buy gold at 3930-3933, stop loss at 3922, target at 3980-4000; Short-term sell gold at 4007-4010, stop loss at 4018, target at 3950-3930; Key Points: First Support Level: 3953, Second Support Level: 3945, Third Support Level: 3930 First Resistance Level: 3993, Second Resistance Level: 4010, Third Resistance Level: 4026
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenBigAge