17-11-2025 _ Short Term Bullish Idea _ XAUUSD M301- Potential Flag Pattern.
2- After pullback between 61.8 - 78% Fibo Retracement expect a push to the Up Side.
Note: Only trade in case of a buy setup.
Trade ideas
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) continues to drift lower, now trading around $4,030–$4,035, following a sharp decline from last week’s highs above $4,150. The 1-hour chart shows price pressing into a major support zone between $3,993–$4,005, which has historically attracted buyers.
Immediate resistance lies at $4,079–$4,089, a supply region that capped upside attempts earlier. A recovery toward the resistance zone is possible if the support zone holds, though the broader structure remains corrective.
A close below $3,989 would invalidate the rebound setup and expose downside potential toward $3,960.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Buy from support zone for a corrective rebound into resistance.
Entry: $3,993 – $4,005
Stop Loss: $3,989
Take Profit 1: $4,079
Take Profit 2: $4,089
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 4.95
Bias is cautiously bullish from support, but sentiment remains fragile due to macro headwinds.
🌐 Macro Background
Gold extended losses into Tuesday’s Asian session, trading near $4,030, weighed down by renewed U.S. Dollar strength and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
FXStreet reports: “Gold price declines below $4,050 as USD strength and hawkish Fed comments weigh on sentiment.” 【FXStreet】
USD Strength:
The U.S. Dollar has strengthened for a third consecutive day, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers and pressuring the metal’s short-term outlook.
Delayed U.S. Data & NFP Ahead:
With the record-long U.S. government shutdown delaying official economic data, traders are now focused on Thursday’s NFP release, which may steer Fed expectations.
Hawkish Fed Commentary:
Officials including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid expressed concern about persistent inflation and signalled a preference for keeping rates steady.
Rate Cut Expectations Drop:
CME FedWatch shows rate-cut expectations for December falling to 45%, down from over 60% last week.
UBS noted that the “totality of data” before the December meeting may still lean toward supporting a third rate cut this year.
China Buying Gold:
China added 15 tons to its gold reserves in September, providing medium-term support but insufficient to offset immediate USD-driven pressure.
Overall, macro drivers remain mixed: strong USD and hawkish Fed weigh on gold, while central bank demand and uncertainty offer a buffer at lower levels.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $4,079 – $4,089
Support: $3,993 – $4,005
Psychological Level: $4,050
📌 Trade Summary
Gold remains under pressure but is testing a major support zone around $3,993–$4,005. If this area holds, a corrective rebound toward $4,079–$4,089 is likely. However, continued USD strength or firmer Fed rhetoric could limit upside momentum.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
GOLD USDHI GUYS,
GOLD I is most likely not to break current zone.
I expect buy confirmation a few hours from now. Tuesday.
Entries on both scalp account and swing account.
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for November 24thGold Technical Analysis:
Daily Resistance: 4145, Support: 4000
4-Hour Resistance: 4110, Support: 4022
1-Hour Resistance: 4085, Support: 4040
The weekly chart closed with a doji, putting pressure on short-term bullish sentiment. The consecutive doji closes on the daily chart suggest a slowdown in the short-term upward trend and exacerbate the expectation of consolidation. The upper Bollinger Band resistance continues to move downwards, and the price will need to focus on the 4040 level (the middle Bollinger Band) during the day. The next key level is 4000; a break below this level would warrant a short-term sell-off. If the price can recover above 4085 in the short term, a continued bullish trend is possible, with the 4140/4150 area as another resistance level to watch. Long-term holders can still look for buying opportunities around 3930/3920;
Looking at the 1-hour chart, gold rebounded after a decline in the European session, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing. The focus in the US session will be on the continuation of this rebound, with resistance levels around 4078 and 4092. The short-term range to watch is 4040-4100;
Trading Strategy:
BUY: 4040near
SELL: 4078~4085
More Analysis →
XAU Selling Model #2Hello everyone, Welcome to the XAU-SYNDICATE...
This is my entry model for selling. If the price holds within the bearish trendline and print a clean 15 min rejection candle backed by strong volume. I'll take that as my cue to execute sell positions from this zone, aiming for a short-term downside move.
#XAU-SYNDICATE
Gold (XAU/USD) 2H Chart Analysis – Sell Setup from High ProbabilBased on the chart you provided, Gold is currently reacting near a High Probability POI (supply zone) after a corrective bullish move. The structure still shows:
Lower highs and lower lows → Bearish market structure
Price is approaching a supply zone where sellers previously dominated
Liquidity has been taken above internal highs (marked as "$$$"), indicating a liquidity grab
This supports a short position idea from the supply zone.
🔍 Key Technical Levels
Zone / Level Meaning
4,125 – 4,150 USD High Probability POI / Supply (Sell area)
4,080 – 4,100 USD Entry region (price is currently here)
4,040 – 4,025 USD First reaction / partial take zone (50% area)
3,990 – 4,000 USD Main Target (previous demand + equal lows)
🎯 Suggested Target
Primary Target: $4,000
(Exactly aligning with your chart’s marked “TARGET” zone where liquidity sits)
If momentum continues and structure breaks more aggressively:
Extended Target: $3,975 – $3,960
(deeper sweep into demand)
🛑 Risk Management
Detail Level
Stop Loss Above 4,155 USD (beyond POI + liquidity)
R:R Potential Approx. 1:3 to 1:4
📌 Summary
Price has retraced into a key supply zone
Liquidity was taken → seller confirmation likely
Expectation is continuation downward towards the liquidity pool below
📊 Title Recommendation:
“Gold Retests Supply Zone – Bearish Continuation Toward $4,000 Expected”
XAUUSD ANALYSIS #01 ( 24 NOV 25 )This is just our intial plan about PURPLETRADING:XAUUSD. According our analysis we marked two support zone below. Currently price is trading near our first support zone. If the price break the trend line with a strong candlestick pattern or chart pattern we will plan a trade on retest.
Either if the price move below and it goes near our second support zone. We will wait for a confirmation.
Mainly our plan is trading on the up side for today. Let's see where the market goes. Stay connect with us.
Buy gold on dips on November 24th.In the short term, the daily chart is currently showing signs of weakness, with moving averages turning downwards and the price breaking below the daily mid-band. Therefore, the intraday outlook is likely to be a decline followed by a rise, and our strategy should follow this pattern: short first, then long. For support, we still expect entry around 4025, with a stop-loss at 4005. Upside targets are 4050-80 and 4100. For shorting, we can wait for a rebound to around 4075 before entering, with a stop-loss above 4090. Pay close attention to the strength of the European session. If the European session is strong, buy on dips before the US session; if the European session is weak, sell on rallies before the US session, targeting a bottoming out and rebound.
Gold XAUUSD updateScroll down to see entry.
I post all my entries here so follow if you want to get free 80-90% accurate ideas.
Take trades at your own risk, go through my entry history on my posts.
Back to gold.
Even though it has not made significant movement it is however for me confirming that I can continue to hold to potential TP. This the biggest amount I've ever traded and at to hit it will solidify me as an official 5 figure trader!
Will keep you posted.
GOLD ForecastGold is trading under a descending trendline, facing strong resistance around the 4076–4077 zone, while buyers are holding support at 4040. A break above resistance may open the way toward 4090+, but failure to break could drag price back to the 4020–4012 support zone.
"Thank you for your support! If you found this idea valuable or learned something new, please consider liking and leaving a comment. I’d really appreciate hearing your feedback and thoughts."
XAUUSD chart structure (Elliott Wave + SMC + Fib confluence)🔎 Market Structure Overview
Your chart is showing a completed 5-wave impulse down finishing at point (5), followed by a corrective A–B–C structure in development.
Key points identified on the chart:
Wave (1) → (5): Full impulse down.
After wave (5), price formed a corrective (A) and is pulling back toward (B).
The BOS (Break of Structure) confirms bearish continuation into the B wave.
Price has tapped deeply into the 0.786 – 0.9 Fibo retracement, forming a potential B-wave demand zone.
🟦 Demand Zone
Your marked zone around:
4,011 – 4,025
Aligns with 0.786 – 0.90 retracement
Also meets a trendline touch
BOS + liquidity sweep under previous lows
This is classic B-wave liquidity grab → setting up for C-wave expansion upward.
📈 Expected Move (Wave C Projection)
You’re targeting:
-0.272 Fib extension around 4,155 – 4,170
This aligns perfectly with:
Typical C-wave extension
Prior supply zone above wave (A)
Trendline break & retest structure
So the next move likely:
Bullish Scenario
Price holds above 4,011 – 4,025 demand
Breaks descending structure
Expands upward into C-wave target zone (4,155 – 4,170)
This matches your structure.
⚠️ Bearish Invalidations
The bullish count fails if:
Price closes below 4,000 (invalidates B-wave)
Sustained trading under the demand block signals continuation of the impulse down.
📌 Summary
Bias: Short-term bullish retracement (C-wave)
Key support: 4,011 – 4,025
Upside target: 4,155 – 4,170
Invalidation: Break below 4,000
If you'd like, I can also give:
Entry / SL / TP plan
Probability breakdown
Lower-timeframe refinement (M15/M5)
Updated scenario if you share the latest candleXAUUSD chart structure (Elliott Wave + SMC + Fi🔎 Market Structure Overview
Your chart is showing a completed 5-wave impulse down finishing at point (5), followed by a corrective A–B–C structure in development.
Key points identified on the chart:
Wave (1) → (5): Full impulse down.
After wave (5), price formed a corrective (A) and is pulling back toward (B).
The BOS (Break of Structure) confirms bearish continuation into the B wave.
Price has tapped deeply into the 0.786 – 0.9 Fibo retracement, forming a potential B-wave demand zone.
🟦 Demand Zone
Your marked zone around:
4,011 – 4,025
Aligns with 0.786 – 0.90 retracement
Also meets a trendline touch
BOS + liquidity sweep under previous lows
This is classic B-wave liquidity grab → setting up for C-wave expansion upward.
📈 Expected Move (Wave C Projection)
You’re targeting:
-0.272 Fib extension around 4,155 – 4,170
This aligns perfectly with:
Typical C-wave extension
Prior supply zone above wave (A)
Trendline break & retest structure
So the next move likely:
Bullish Scenario
Price holds above 4,011 – 4,025 demand
Breaks descending structure
Expands upward into C-wave target zone (4,155 – 4,170)
This matches your structure.
⚠️ Bearish Invalidations
The bullish count fails if:
Price closes below 4,000 (invalidates B-wave)
Sustained trading under the demand block signals continuation of the impulse down.
📌 Summary
Bias: Short-term bullish retracement (C-wave)
Key support: 4,011 – 4,025
Upside target: 4,155 – 4,170
Invalidation: Break below 4,000
If you'd like, I can also give:
Entry / SL / TP plan
Probability breakdown
Lower-timeframe refinement (M15/M5)
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
XAUUSD BUYI expect Gold to push to the upside from Price action shown on the chart. Gold breakout and expecting pullback and rally toward above Fair value gap and Supply zone above.
Wave Theory..!!!Elliot wave has been the most fundamental part of trading. The only thing is to wait for entries.
X is busy forming the last correction before we shoot down to start and form Y pulse.
Happy Trading.
The core logic for going long on goldPositive macro support: In mid-October, the initial jobless claims in the US rose to a two-month high, indicating a cooling in corporate hiring intentions. This weak employment data has pushed the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December back above 50%, which is beneficial for the interest-free asset, gold. At the same time, global central banks have continuously increased their gold holdings for 12 consecutive months. In the first three quarters, domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 160% year-on-year. The sustained trend of central bank gold purchases provides a solid underlying support for the gold price. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties such as the tense relationship between China and Japan continue to inject safe-haven buying momentum into gold.
Low-absorption opportunities in a volatile pattern: Currently, gold is generally in a high-volatile range. The weekly line has not broken the key support level of 3980. After the previous drop from 4110, it did not form a sustained downward trend. The pullback has become a good opportunity for low absorption. Moreover, 4061 is in the middle position between the support level of 4045 and the resistance level of 4098. It not only has the space to rebound with the support below but also conforms to the core logic of low absorption and going long in a volatile market.
Gold trading strategy
buy：4035-4045
tp:4065-4075-4120
sl:4025
XAUUSD: Short-Term Downtrend Active Below FVG/Supply ZoneKey Technical Points
Major Resistance (X): The swing high marked 'X' around $4,240 served as a strong ceiling, initiating the current downtrend.
Supply Zone (D / FVG): The shaded gray box, labeled 'D / FVG' (Demand/Fair Value Gap), is a critical supply area (resistance) located between approximately $4,100 and $4,140. The price has reacted negatively to this zone, confirming its importance as a selling region.
Bearish Channel: Since the rejection from the major high, the price has been contained within a clear descending channel, indicating sustained short-term bearish momentum.
Current Action: The price is trading near the mid-point of the channel, currently at $4,064.40. The market structure suggests a pattern of lower highs and lower lows is still active.
Outlook
The immediate outlook remains bearish as long as the price stays within the descending channel and below the D / FVG supply zone. The most probable next move is a continuation toward the lower boundary of the channel, potentially testing the $4,000 psychological support level.
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
TVC:GOLD Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,075, struggling to gain traction after a sharp intraday recovery. Price remains capped by the resistance zone at $4,081–$4,086, while intraday support is seen between $4,041–$4,045.
The structure currently favours a short-term bearish reaction, with price showing repeated rejection at the resistance zone. A break below $4,060 could accelerate downside momentum toward the support zone, while any sustained push above $4,093 would invalidate the bearish bias.
🎯 Trade Setup
Idea: Sell from resistance zone targeting retest of support.
Entry: $4,081 – $4,086
Stop Loss: $4,094
Take Profit 1: $4,045
Take Profit 2: $4,041
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 3.4
Bias turns bullish only if price closes above $4,093.
🌐 Macro Background
Gold trades above $4,100 ahead of the delayed US September NFP report, which was pushed back due to the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history.
FXStreet notes that:
“Gold edges higher to near $4,110 as uncertainty over US jobs data and cautious sentiment support safe-haven demand.” 【FXStreet】
NFP Impact:
A weaker-than-expected jobs report would likely revive expectations for a December rate cut, boosting gold through lower yields and a softer USD.
Fed Divisions:
The FOMC Minutes showed policymakers divided—some supporting further cuts, others opposing another move in December.
Market Pricing:
The CME FedWatch Tool shows only a 30% probability of a December rate cut, sharply lower than nearly 60% last week, limiting gold’s upside.
Overall, gold’s upside remains constrained by shifting rate expectations, but uncertainty around delayed data continues to provide safe-haven support.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $4,081 – $4,086
Support: $4,041 – $4,045
Psychological Level: $4,100
📌 Trade Summary
Gold remains trapped between resistance at $4,081–$4,086 and support at $4,041–$4,045. Price is showing rejection at resistance, favouring a short-term bearish pullback.
Downside targets lie at $4,045 and $4,041, unless incoming NFP data triggers renewed bullish momentum.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
OUTLOOK XAUUSD 1H Analysis (20th November 2025)Hey Guys, This is just a trade idea, not a financial advise
BUY/SELL SCENARIOS:
BUYS:
1) Retest the 1h Bullish FVG at the 4100.52 level.
2) Create a 3/5m Bullish CHOCh with a body candle close (with a FVG).
3) Retest the 3/5m Bullish CHOCH level to capitalise on BUYS towards the 4133.00 level.
SELLS:
1) Body candle close below the 4084.81 level.
2) Retest the failed 1h Bullish FVG at the 4084.81 level.
3) Create a 3/5m Bearish Engulfing Candle to capitalize on SELLS towards the 4040.50 level.
Trade smart, Trade according to the trading plan. Cheers
A BUY my next trade for today is a buy at 4086-80, sl at 4066 and tp at 4120-26 or hold till the end of today, if it doesn't come there today then i may not get entry today .
Supporting the precise long-positioning strategyCore economic data disappointed, confirming the economic slowdown.
The core retail sales in the US dropped by 0.3% month-on-month in October (expected to remain unchanged), marking the largest decline since March 2024. At the same time, industrial output dropped by 0.6% month-on-month in October (expected to decline by 0.1%), with both core consumption and production indicators showing synchronous weakness, far exceeding market expectations. Historical data shows that when core retail sales and industrial output decline simultaneously, the probability of the Federal Reserve initiating easing policies within 3 months increases from 58% to 72%. This directly boosts the probability of a December interest rate cut from 44.4% to 48.2%. The early brewing of easing expectations provides strong support for the gold price.
The dovish faction of the Federal Reserve has spoken out, and policy differences have widened.
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman (previously hawkish) stated on November 19 that "We need to closely monitor the impact of economic slowdown signals on inflation. If the economy continues to weaken, we can assess the timing of the interest rate cut in advance." The dovish faction unexpectedly expanded, breaking the previous "hawkish dominance" of the舆论 landscape. Market sensitivity to policy shifts has significantly increased， further weakening the suppression power of hawkish remarks.
Gold trading strategy
buy：4065-4075
tp:4085-4095-4130
sl:4055
XAU/USD 19 November 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025.
Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380.990.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per analysis dated 14 November 2025, price has printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,245.195
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
MY EXPECTATION FOR THE WEEK Gold shifted to sells after it tested 4245 area and it closed to end the week around 4080-82, bears will likely continue with the downward push to any of these three levels before the buy start again, 4020, 4000 and 3960-30, with the 3960-30 area having a higher probability of starting the buy followed by 4000 ,
so there's a high chance the sell will reach 3960-30 before the buy start, but gold can start buying from any place it wants and whatever be the case there will be update throughout the week so it wouldn't be a big issue.
A sell after market open at anywhere within 4084-94 and an sl at 4111 with tp at 4000, 3965 or a minimum of 600 pips and a good confirmation of more sell is if price closes below 4055-53.
Marginal weakening of macroeconomic negative factorsDigestion of hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve: Previously, Fed officials issued a series of signals indicating "no immediate rate cut", causing the probability of a rate cut in December to drop from 66% to below 50%, but the market has now fully absorbed this negative factor. The impact of further hawkish statements from the Fed will weaken. Moreover, the core PCE in the US has continued to fall to 2.8% in October, indicating weak economic data, which still leaves room for long-term rate cuts. The negative factors are unlikely to continue to intensify.
The retreat of risk aversion has slowed down: The short-term negative factors such as the US government shutdown and the easing of the geopolitical situation in Venezuela have been released. Potential risks such as the situation in the Middle East and the crisis in the Red Sea shipping route still exist. The market's sensitivity to negative factors has decreased, and there is no new catalyst for the decline.
Gold trading strategy
buy：4000-4010
tp:4020-4030
sl:3990
