Gold may face another major cleanup in the non-farm payroll repoGold may face another major cleanup in the non-farm payroll report.
I. Analysis of Core Bullish and Bearish Factors
Major Bearish Factors:
Hawky Fed Stance: Federal Reserve officials have recently continued to send hawkish signals, emphasizing the continued inflationary pressure and the need to maintain a tight policy. Some officials have even mentioned the possibility of starting balance sheet reduction in October. This move has boosted the US dollar, directly increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Technical Pullback Pressure: Gold prices have entered severely overbought territory on the weekly and daily charts, with technical indicators showing top divergences, suggesting strong demand for a correction. Recent prices have repeatedly encountered resistance at the key psychological level of $3,900, followed by sharp declines, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum.
Risk aversion has eased marginally: European and US stock markets have performed strongly, continuously hitting new highs, diverting some safe-haven funds from the gold market.
Key Bullish Factors:
Economic Data Shows Weakness: The US ADP employment report unexpectedly declined sharply, while the ISM manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory. These data reinforced market expectations of an economic slowdown and future Federal Reserve rate cuts, providing underlying support for gold prices.
Geopolitical Risk Support: The risk of a renewed US government shutdown, coupled with ongoing geopolitical conflicts, provides a solid foundation for safe-haven demand for gold.
Long-Term Structural Demand: Continued gold purchases by emerging market central banks provide a long-term structural positive for the gold market.
II. Intraday Technical Analysis and Strategy (Before Non-Farm Payroll Data)
Market Review and Positioning:
After hitting a high of $3,895, gold prices formed a classic "inverted hammer" and "black cross" candlestick pattern on the daily chart, clearly demonstrating significant selling pressure at high levels. Yesterday, prices retested this resistance level for the second time and retreated sharply to $3,819 before rebounding to recover some of the lost ground, confirming the current market consolidation pattern at a high level. While the long-term bullish trend remains intact, the short-term uptrend has significantly slowed.
Key Price Levels:
Resistance: $3867, $3870-3880, $3900
Support: $3850, $3838-3820, $3800 (10-day moving average)
Intraday (pre-data) Trading Strategy:
The overall strategy is to approach the market with high-level fluctuations, avoiding chasing highs and selling lows.
Short Strategy: Aggressive traders can try a small short position if the price rebounds to the $3860-3870 area, with a stop-loss above $3877 and a target of $3845-3840.
Long Strategy: If the price first retraces to the $3830-3820 support area during the Asian and European sessions and shows signs of stabilization, a small long position can be taken with a stop-loss below $3810 and a target of $3850-3860.
Key Reminder: Be wary of a repeat of the recent market cycle of "rebound in Asian and European sessions, decline in US sessions."
III. Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll Data: Key Focus and Countermeasures
Market Impact Logic:
This non-farm payroll data is a key indicator for the Fed's policy direction and is bound to trigger significant market volatility.
If the data is strong (e.g., above 50,000), it will reinforce the Fed's hawkish stance, boost the US dollar, and potentially trigger large-scale profit-taking by gold bulls. Gold prices face the risk of a further, deeper correction. Support levels below target 3820 or even the 3800-3780 area.
If the data is significantly weak (e.g., negative), it will significantly reinforce expectations of a rate cut, theoretically positive for gold prices. However, caution is advised against "buying expectations, selling the facts" as gold prices may quickly fall after a surge as the positive news runs out. Avoid chasing highs above $3,900, especially if the price is above $3,900.
Strategy and Risk Management Recommendations:
Conservative investors are advised to liquidate or maintain a very light position before the data is released to mitigate the risk of uncertainty.
After the data is released, wait for market sentiment to stabilize and a clear direction before entering the market, avoiding blind trading during initial volatility.
All positions must have stop-loss orders set before the data is released, leaving sufficient room for market fluctuations and maintaining strict risk management.
