Gold Next Target: $4,100 — Key Level Ahead!The next key zone — and possibly the next target for gold — is $4,100. Let’s see how the price reacts to this level
SPOTGOLD trade ideas
ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 2.0 – US FORECAST (08/10/2025)Session Bias: Bullish continuation with controlled pullback probability
Market Structure: Still within ascending channel; bulls defending structure after rejection at 4,049
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🕐 1️⃣ DAILY TIMEFRAME (D1)
• Gold continues its aggressive uptrend, with another bullish daily candle extending from 3,983 to 4,049.
• Price remains above 20 EMA (3,975) and 50 EMA (3,867) → strong bullish trend confirmation.
• RSI at 79 → extremely overbought, suggesting limited room before a short-term correction.
• MACD histogram still expanding positively, showing momentum remains active despite exhaustion risk.
• Parabolic SAR stays below price → trend intact.
Summary:
Gold is overextended but structurally bullish. As long as daily candle holds above 4,000, buyers remain in control aiming for 4,060–4,078.
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⏱ 2️⃣ H1 TIMEFRAME
• Gold hit 4,049 (Weak High) and is now consolidating around 4,040–4,043, holding above short-term structure support at 4,031.
• Price remains above 20 EMA (4,031) and 50 EMA (3,984) — EMAs sharply aligned upward.
• MACD: histogram showing fading bullish momentum, though still above zero → healthy pullback possible.
• RSI (70) hovering near overbought → suggests cooling off before potential continuation.
• Channel Structure: price rejected top trendline (red), possibly retracing toward midline support 4,031–4,020.
Observation:
If 4,031–4,020 holds, we may see a continuation leg toward 4,060–4,078.
A break below 4,018 would shift short-term momentum bearish toward 4,004.
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📉 3️⃣ M15 TIMEFRAME
• The intraday structure remains bullish; however, candles are printing smaller bodies → indicating exhaustion.
• Fibonacci retracement from 3,984 → 4,049:
• 38.2% = 4,024
• 50% = 4,017
• 61.8% = 4,010
→ forming a Golden Zone (4,024–4,010) — ideal pullback area for re-entry if the bullish trend resumes.
• MACD showing a flattening histogram → potential retrace before next impulse.
• RSI at 61 → mid-range, ready for either a dip or rebound depending on 4,031 support reaction.
Summary:
A healthy retracement toward 4,024–4,010 is expected. As long as the golden zone holds, trend continuation remains the main scenario.
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⚡ 4️⃣ M5 TIMEFRAME (SCALPING VIEW)
• Price formed a minor double top at 4,049 and retraced to 4,033, currently ranging between 4,030–4,044.
• 20 EMA starting to flatten, while 50 EMA remains below → short-term correction developing.
• MACD histogram in red but narrowing → bears weakening as we approach support.
• RSI 48 → neutral, suggesting accumulation zone forming for next move.
Scalping Summary:
• Buy scalp zone: 4,031–4,024 (confirmation required)
• Sell scalp zone: below 4,018 (breakout and retest) → potential drop to 4,004–3,992
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✨ FIBONACCI GOLDEN ZONE (Current Swing: 3,984 → 4,049)
Retracement Level Price
38.2% 4,024
50% 4,017
61.8% 4,010
Golden Zone = 4,024 – 4,010 → key support & re-entry area.
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🚨 BREAKOUT LEVELS TO WATCH
Direction Breakout Zone Retest Confirmation Target Zones
Bullish Above 4,049–4,050 Retest 4,045–4,047 4,060 → 4,072 → 4,085
Bearish Below 4,018–4,010 Retest 4,015–4,012 4,004 → 3,992 → 3,970
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📊 INDICATORS SUMMARY
Indicator Reading Bias
RSI (H1) 70 (Overbought) ⚠ Cooling phase
MACD (H1) Positive, flattening ✅ Still bullish
EMAs (20/50) Rising, wide gap ✅ Trend intact
Volume Normalizing ⚠ Pre-news pause
Parabolic SAR Below price ✅ Trend supportive
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🧭 SESSION OUTLOOK (US SESSION)
• Base Case (60% probability):
Controlled pullback toward 4,024–4,010 (Golden Zone) before continuation to 4,060–4,078.
• Alternative (30% probability):
Extended range between 4,030–4,049 with sideways consolidation.
• Low Probability (10%):
Breakdown below 4,010 → deeper correction to 3,990–3,970.
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✅ SUMMARY
Gold remains bullish overall, but short-term momentum is softening after reaching 4,049 resistance.
A pullback into 4,024–4,010 (Golden Zone) is the ideal setup for bullish continuation.
As long as price holds above 4,018, trend bias stays upward;
only a confirmed breakdown below 4,010 would signal short-term bearish correction.
Bias: 🟢 Bullish above 4,018
⚪ Neutral 4,018–4,010
🔴 Bearish below 4,010
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XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold continues its strong bullish run, extending gains above 4000, with price now approaching the 4046 resistance level. Momentum remains firmly in buyers’ hands with no clear signs of exhaustion so far, although price is now moving into overextended territory following several strong impulsive moves.
If bullish momentum remains strong and buyers manage to break above the 4046 resistance, price may extend toward the 4064 level. However, failure to clear 4046 could trigger a pullback toward lower support zones.
Immediate support sits at the First Reaction Zone (4000–3970) — a natural area for a short-term pullback if price starts to cool off.
Deeper retracement zones are found around 3937 and 3909, where the broader uptrend could rebuild momentum should short-term profit-taking intensify.
📌Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4046
4064
4080
Support:
4020
4000
3970
3937
3909
🔎Fundamental Focus | October 8, 2025
All eyes are on the FOMC Meeting Minutes later today, scheduled for 8:00 pm (GMT+2).
Despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, the Fed’s communications remain unaffected since it operates independently.
Several Fed officials — including Mester, Barr, Goolsbee, Logan, and Kashkari — are also speaking throughout the day, which could add volatility.
⚠️ Stay cautious — sentiment remains headline-driven amid the shutdown and multiple Fed speeches today.
4015 can go long, 3990 is bullish if not brokenAs expected, gold continued its strong upward momentum, breaking through the 4,000 mark in the Asian session and nearly reaching 4,040. But from the news point of view, gold has now come to a critical moment. According to information revealed by U.S. Senator John Thune, the Senate will vote again on two short-term appropriations bills on the 8th and discuss the progress of the government shutdown. This will be the Senate's sixth attempt to pass a temporary spending bill to end the federal government shutdown. The previous government shutdown sparked market panic, leading many investors to flock to the gold market. If the government can be reopened this time, it will effectively alleviate risk aversion and cause gold prices to correct. On the contrary, the impact of continued closures and geopolitical factors may even cause gold to rise again.
Judging from the current gold trend, a new upward channel has been formed. Our trading strategy still focuses on long gold and short gold as a supplement. Then we should first focus on the small support of 4015-4010. When it falls back to here for the first time, we can try to go long with a light position. If it breaks, stop loss in time and pay attention to the important support of 4000-3900 to go long on gold. But it is worth noting that we must be wary of the possible rise and fall of gold today. The first reason is whether the US government shutdown issue can be resolved. The second reason is that China’s holiday is about to end. As a major gold holder, once it returns, the impact on the market will definitely be significant. On the upside, focus on the channel resistance level of 4050-4060. If gold rises near this resistance level, consider shorting it appropriately based on market conditions.
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XAU/USD Intraday Analysis – October 8, 2025Technical Overview:
Gold is currently trading near the upper boundary of a well-defined ascending channel. Price action indicates strong bullish momentum, confirmed by higher highs and higher lows. Short-term retracements are expected around resistance zones, providing optimal entry points for buyers.
Key Levels:
Immediate Support: 3,983 – 3,985 USD (lower boundary of ascending channel)
Immediate Resistance: 4,000 – 4,005 USD (upper boundary, psychological level)
Next Target Zone: 4,065 – 4,070 USD (extension of channel projection)
Indicators:
EMA cluster aligns with the ascending trend, confirming continuation potential.
RSI approaching overbought territory, suggesting possible short-term pullback before resuming uptrend.
Trading Strategy:
Long Setup (Buy):
Entry: 3,990 – 3,995 USD
Stop Loss: 3,983 USD (channel support)
Take Profit 1: 4,020 USD
Take Profit 2: 4,040 USD
Take Profit 3: 4,065 USD
Short Setup (Sell / Countertrend):
Entry: Only consider if price rejects 4,000 – 4,005 USD resistance
Stop Loss: 4,010 USD
Take Profit: 3,985 – 3,990 USD
Market Notes:
The ascending channel remains intact; trend-following strategies favor buying near support.
A break above 4,005 USD may trigger strong bullish continuation to the projected 4,065 USD zone.
Watch for high-impact US economic events that could create volatility (e.g., CPI, Fed statements).
Conclusion:
Gold shows strong bullish bias on the hourly timeframe. Patience for pullbacks near support levels is recommended to maximize risk-reward. Discipline and adherence to channel boundaries will enhance trade accuracy.
Follow for more daily XAU/USD strategies and precise entry setups.
GOLD Risky!!Another low- probability risky trade I'll take on Gold now
After BOS SL at BE!. Let's see how it plays out
Today's gold price forecast: A correction to $3,950-3,915.Today's gold price forecast: A correction to $3,950-3,915.
My point is:
If gold prices remain above $4,000 this week,
how much higher can gold prices rise in the coming months?
Shouldn't gold prices pause for a while?
Let them digest the gains of the past seven weeks?
Currently, the key range under pressure for gold prices: $3,980-3,990-4,000.
If gold prices break through $4,000 this week, I believe trading gold in the coming months (October, November, and December) will become very difficult.
This increase should have taken a quarter, but it was achieved in just one month.
If this is normal, it only means that $4,000 is far from the limit for gold's upward movement.
We should set a higher threshold for gold price increases.
Clearly, this is not normal.
Today's trading strategy, I believe, is primarily focused on a correction. SELL: 3980
SELL: 4000
SL: 4010
TP: 3950
TP: 3915
The above is my assessment and trading expectations for today's trend.
Intraday Gold Sell Setup – Risk-Reward Favoring Downside Move ?Entry Price: ~$3,973
Stop Loss (SL): ~$3,980.89
Take Profit (TP): ~$3,958.85
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2
Market Context & Price Action:
Bearish Engulfing Pattern: The last red candle has engulfed the prior green candle near a recent swing high, suggesting potential short-term bearish momentum.
Resistance Zone: Around $3,977–$3,980, where price was rejected.
Bearish Projection Arrow: Indicates expected drop towards the TP zone around $3,958.
Support Area: ~$3,958 and $3,954 – prior levels where price has shown reactions.
XAU updated If you held through the noise….
Congratulations….
Came out that range hotttt 🔥
30min from now to sustain.
Most likely, with 44 in sight.
🫶🏽
$xau brrrrrrrrrrrpWonderful printing going on here!!!
As of last posts!!! $3941 smacked up no problems, almost running full target here just shy of $3983.
Looking to scale in around $3920 & if can make the return before TP. $4025 should be no problem!😌
$3983>$4025 are the new waters to bring along $4150 pending closures..
And once again… $3983 plays golds super handle..
This the guy that says short or long for any longterm solutions!!!
Definitely see this number a lot over the next couple weeks..
Pay attention….📝 🧠
Abundant energy. Breaking through 4000?Gold continues its strong bullish trend, and the bullish outlook remains unchanged. Having already broken through the 3900 mark, the upside target could reach 4000.
Based on the cyclical rhythm, we expect continued unilateral gains in the early part of this week (Monday and Tuesday); be wary of a shift to a volatile upward trend or a reversal in the midweek (Wednesday and Thursday); Friday is likely to see a corrective rally, but if a reversal occurs midweek, there is a risk of a sharp correction on Friday.
Technically, gold maintains a healthy upward trend along its short-term moving average on the 4-hour chart. The bottoming out during the US trading session has completed the technical pattern repair, accumulating momentum for further gains. Although the current price is fluctuating at a high level, a new high is inevitable, as similar patterns have repeatedly demonstrated strong breakouts recently. Even if it maintains a high and narrow consolidation in the short term, there is a high probability that it will see a direct rise.
From the 1-hour level, the gold price is temporarily consolidating at a high level, but the small-cycle technical indicators have shown a certain degree of top divergence. This indicates that the short-term trend may continue to fluctuate at a high level and be strong, and we need to pay attention to the opportunity for bullish intervention after the correction. Watch for opportunities to enter the bull market after a pullback. The overall technical structure remains solid and supports a bullish outlook.
Trading Recommendation:
Continue to buy on a pullback to 3945, with a stop-loss at 3935. Profit range: 3970-3980-3990.
Gold's Key Support Level: $3910Gold's Key Support Level: $3910
1: $3910 is a Key Support Level for Gold
2: As long as gold prices remain above $3910, there's only one safest trading strategy: wait for a dip and go long.
3: All Buy Points: 3930-3920-3910, Stop Loss: 3903, Target: 3960+
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Technical Analysis:
1: $3900-3910 is a key round number, where many traders and investors place buy orders (pending orders) or stop-loss orders, creating a concentrated buying force.
2: Trend Line Support: Connecting the lows of the recent uptrend could form an upward trend line, with $3910 falling squarely on this trend line (see Figure 4h).
A STRONG BULLISHNESS This is a smaller time frame buy am expecting at the circled area (3833-30) to around 3858-62 before maybe a sell again to test a higher time frame buy zone at the same area 3833-30 or before it starts buying with momentum, my interest is in buys not any sell.
Gold extended its bullish momentum, rallying through the 3900’s,Gold extended its bullish momentum, rallying through the 3900’s, with market sentiment now craving a psychological test at 4000 USD/Oz. The continued bullish drive reflects sustained demand strength and investor confidence ahead of key macro events. follow for more insights , comment , and boost idea
XAU/USD 06 October 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed as per previous intraday analysis whereby I mentioned price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within an established internal range, however, bearish pullback was insignificant relative to recent price action, therefore, I will not classify the bullish, I have however marked this in red.
Price has continued bullish printing ATH's. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH, thereafter trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,949.670.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed as per my intraday analysis dated 02 October 2025 whereby I mentioned price to trade down to either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,895.500.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Price is now trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday expectation: Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation. Price to then trade down to either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% EQ before targeting internal high priced at 3,949.670
Alternative Scenario: Price could potentially target strong internal low as H4 TF enters it's bearish pullback phase.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
GOLD Update (1) – Monday 06-10-2025 | Outlook and Follow-UpAnalysis – XAUUSD
As anticipated in my Monday market outlook, gold perfectly followed the expected bullish scenario — the buy setup above $3892 played out exactly as projected, reaching a new all-time high at $3945 earlier today.
At the time of writing, gold is trading near $3926, showing consolidation after the breakout.
The structure remains technically bullish but is now testing the upper channel zone, suggesting potential short-term volatility before the next directional move.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Buy)
Entry: Above 3937
Targets: (3941–3944) – 3957 – 3963 – 3974 – (3988–3994) – 4000 – 4013 – 4030
📉 Bearish Scenario (Sell)
Entry: Below 3926 (safer entry below 3917)
Targets: (3921–3917) – 3912 – 3907 – 3901 – 3893 – 3881 – 3874 – (3864–3859) – (3847–3841)
Market Context:
After printing a record high, gold is now digesting gains near intraday resistance.
Buyers remain in control as long as 3917 holds, while a confirmed break below could shift momentum into a corrective phase.
Traders should stay patient and wait for confirmation before entering new positions.
Disclaimer:
This analysis reflects my personal market observation only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk; each trader is responsible for their own decisions.
#GoldRider #XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #TradingView #gold #forex
Gold Ascending Channel | Channel UpThe recent US government shutdown has provided an upside opportunity for the yellow metal, as the shutdown has left investors with uncertainty.
As a result of that we can see opportunities presented and aligning with the chart patterns price has been following.
Friday closed with an ascending triangle on the smaller timeframes, up to M15, which is clearly yet to break out.
However, it MAY be possible to see a low momentum breakout or no breakout and or a reversal to sweep the Sell-Side liquidity left on Thursday, where buyers should step in for continuation at the H1 Demand.
Ensure to manage your risk and protect your psychology and capital.
Have a profitable week!
Gold – Monday Outlook: Compression Before the Next Move(Asian Session Opening Analysis)
Overview:
Gold closed last Friday at $3884.78, slightly below its all-time high of $3897.24 (recorded on October 2).
Despite repeated attempts, no 2-hour candle managed to close above $3890, confirming that sellers continue to defend this level aggressively.
From late Friday, price action began forming a lower-high structure, coinciding with headlines about a potential ceasefire in Gaza — a reminder that geopolitical tone often dictates the rhythm of gold.
Key Outlook:
A clear breakout above 3890 may unlock an extension toward 3897–3899, and if bulls manage to secure a daily close above that zone, momentum could shift firmly in their favor.
However, failure to hold above support at 3877–3870 may lead to deeper retracements toward 3850–3840, or even 3828 if selling accelerates.
Technical Context:
Structurally, gold remains in a high-volatility zone. Price is still trading near the upper boundary of the bullish channel, but momentum show early signs of fatigue.
Until we see a decisive breakout above the previous high or a confirmed close below 3870, gold is likely to oscillate within this compression range.
🎯 Bullish Scenario (Buy Setup)
Entry: Above 3892
Targets: 3899 – 3906 – (3922–3926) – 3934 – 3940 – 3955 – 3968
📉 Bearish Scenario (Sell Setup)
Entry: Below 3877
Targets: 3870 – 3863 – (3854–3850) – 3842 – (3830–3828) – 3819 – 3810 – 3797 – 3789 – 3770 – 3760
Trading Notes:
Asian session openings are often erratic and liquidity-thin, making sudden wicks and false breakouts more common. Patience and confirmation remain key — avoid chasing the first move of the week.
Conclusion:
Gold’s directional bias remains cautiously bullish above 3877, but the lack of follow-through beyond 3890 warns of exhaustion. A confirmed breakout will validate continuation toward new highs, while sustained pressure below 3870 could trigger a technical reset.
Disclaimer:
This analysis reflects only my personal market view and is not a trading signal. Financial markets involve substantial risk; decisions remain the sole responsibility of each trader.
Gold 4h analysis I think gold is still bullish on a 4h timeframe we can look for a buy position after confirmation of course.
H1 Forecast for Next Week ( 6 October 2025 )H1 Forecast for Next Week. If the price manages to pull back above that yellow zone and continues its momentum, the market could create a brand-new all-time high. According to Fibonacci projections, the target may extend toward 3925.31.
But remember confirmation always comes first. The market can easily shift into a Change of Character and turn bearish. That’s why discipline is key. Manage your risk, protect your capital, and never forget your money is your weapon in this market. Guard it, respect it, and it will reward you.
Gold adjustment is not over yet, continue to short at highsGold continued to fluctuate in today's Asian session, failing to initiate a strong rebound and instead fluctuating weakly. This suggests that gold's short-term correction has not concluded and may continue. Today's non-farm payroll report may be delayed, so without supporting data, short-term volatility is likely to continue.
Gold's 1-hour moving average has begun to turn upward, forming a double top pattern. Short-term bulls have yet to re-establish themselves at the gold neckline, indicating continued weakness. Gold rebounded several times but still failed to break through the pressure of 3865. Gold near 3865 in the European session is an opportunity to short on rallies.
Resistance levels: 3865, 3878
Support levels: 3843, 3828
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