Gold. wave Analysis 3/Oct/25XAUUSD probably forming a bullish tringle pattern within 3900 - 3800 range before hitting 4000
SPOTGOLD trade ideas
Gold price analysis October 3In the last two New York sessions, gold has been under constant selling pressure as it approaches the peak. The market is showing a strong tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, reflecting the indecision after the previous long-term rally.
Currently, the 3862 area is considered an important resistance level. If the London session does not create enough momentum to break through this area, the bearish scenario will be prioritized with the target falling back to the support levels of 3825 and deeper at 3805.
SELL setup: Watch for price rejection signals around the resistance of 3862.
🎯 Target: 3825 – 3805.
BUY setup: Only consider when the H1 price closes a stable candle above 3862, opening up the opportunity to continue the uptrend.
GOLD NEWYORK PERSPECTIVE GOLD IS THE ONLY MONEY THAT WILL STAND ,THE REST IS FAILING, fiat money is failing, gold will hit 5000k before the end of the year.
the structure remains bullish, every time we dip ,they buy back as fast as possible.
watch supply roof at 4025-4022-4030 extended.
the next will be 4047-4050 and 4058 extended
note under no condition should 1hr,2hr,3hr and 4hr candle close below Asian high of 3992-3995,break and close of the zone will trigger sell into structure below ON THE FIB LEVEL
Gold Tests 4000 Again After Double Top SelloffGold formed a double top and reached the 3,940 formation target during yesterday’s selloff. It is now testing the 4,000 level from below. If this level holds, a slightly negative outlook for the next couple of days will be the base case, with gold moving closer to the main trendline. The trend currently sits around 3,885 and is rising.
If gold manages to recapture 4,000 on a sustained basis, upward pressure toward 4,060 may continue. Traders should beware of possible traps around the 4,000 level.
Gold will continue to rise at the end of the week!!!Gold is currently consolidating at a high level on the daily chart, nearly forming an engulfing pattern at a high level, making today's daily close crucial. On the 4-hour chart, prices are currently fluctuating at a low level, finding support around 3950. On the hourly chart, after continuous fluctuations, the technical pattern is gradually adjusting. The short-term moving average is gradually diverging upward, and the K-line chart is slowly crossing the short-term moving average. The short-term trend is gradually strengthening, suggesting further upside potential. Keep an eye on the resistance zone around 4010.
Trade Recommendation: Buy around 3975-6, with a stop-loss at 3966.
10.10 Gold pullback continues to be bullish!!!Looking at the 4-hour market trend, watch for the important support level at 3957-3960. The bulls are rising strongly and there's no end in sight. Trading strategies should prioritize buying on dips. In the middle, be cautious and watchful when buying.
Gold Trading Strategies:
1. Go long on gold at 3957-3960, with a stop loss at 3948 and a target of 4015-4020. Hold if it breaks through!
Prices fluctuated wildly. Downward pressure persists.On Thursday, the market experienced significant price fluctuations, correcting around 4041.5 before rapidly rising, reaching a high of 4058.2. However, the market reversed during the US trading session. Influenced by news of a ceasefire in the Middle East, prices plummeted below the 4000 mark, reaching a low of 3943.3 before consolidating and closing at 3976.9.
This converging pattern indicates that short-term downward pressure persists.
Short-term Trading Focus:
1. Focus on the 4000 mark. If the price rebounds near this level, consider shorting.
2. After breaking through 4000, consider a final short position at 4020.
Profit targets are 3980-3960. Further declines could target 3945-3920.
A long strategy can start with a small long position around 3945, with a profit range of 3980-4000.
XAU 80 returned as mentioned!
81 with 83 crucial….
If you trade gold…. You know…..
It’s never too late to turn it around….
Let’s see!!!! 🤔
$3910 vs $4000 Two-Sided Battle - Precise SCALP Setup Following Macro Overview: USD Weakness Triggers Gold's Rebound Momentum
The yellow metal is regaining traction after the US Dollar slightly pulled back from its two-month high. Key fundamental factors supporting Gold remain:
Fed Rate Cut Bets: Despite lingering inflation concerns in the FOMC minutes, the market still prices in a higher probability of the Fed cutting borrowing costs twice by year-end. This reduces the opportunity cost of holding Gold.
Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical risks (despite the short-term profit-taking after the Israel-Hamas truce news) and the risk of a potential US government shutdown continue to be a Crucial Safe-Haven Factor.
Summary: Gold is facing short-term profit-taking pressure but is strongly anchored by expectations of Lower Interest Rates and Geopolitical/Macroeconomic Risks.
📊 Technical Analysis (TA) - Focus Scalp Reaction Zones
The chart shows Gold consolidating and reacting sharply at key Fibo levels following a major drop. Today's Trading Plan focuses on specific Reaction Zones for SCALPING.
1️⃣ SELL Strategy (SELL SCALP) - Priority on Resistance Recovery
SELL SCALP REACTION ZONE 3997 - 4000 (0.5 Fibo):
This is a notable Short-Term Resistance Zone, coinciding with the psychological 4000 level.
PLAN: Look to enter upon Price Action/Bearish Reversal Signals at 3997 - 4000.
TARGET: Aim for a drop back to the lower support area at 3915 - 3910.
Strategic H1/H4 SELL ZONE: 4014 - 4018 (0.618 Fibo Downtrend):
The REACTION FIBO 0.618 DOWNTREND H1 SELL ZONE is a stronger sell area. Will consider entry here if the recovery momentum is stronger than anticipated.
2️⃣ BUY Strategy (BUY SCALP) - Reacting at Lower Support
TARGET SELL Gold $$$$ - REACT ZONE BUY SCALP 3915 - 3910:
This zone is Key Support, representing the confluence of the 0.786 Fibo and the lower Uptrend Line of the current minor structure.
PLAN: Wait for price to touch 3915 - 3910. Look for Strong BUY Signals (Bullish Engulfing/Pin Bar).
TARGET: Aim for a bounce back towards the SCALP SELL zone 3997 - 4000.
⚠️ MatrixFibo Note & Risk Management
Risk Warning: Volatility can be extremely high due to USD/Fed news. MANDATORY USE of STOP LOSS (SL) when SCALPING.
Current Status: Gold is in a consolidation phase after the sharp move down. Prioritize Two-Way Scalping at the identified reaction zones.
Recommendation: Trade with a Volume appropriate for a scalping strategy.
SIGNAL TYPE ; SELL GOLD XAUUSD🔴 SELL SIGNAL ACTIVE — XAUUSD (GOLD)
Bears are stepping in as price shows signs of exhaustion at key resistance levels.
This setup marks a high-probability short-term downside opportunity, ideal for traders who look to capitalize on momentum reversals and clean structural shifts.
✳️ Market Snapshot
Structure Shift: Price forms a lower high, signaling potential weakness ahead.
Momentum Turn: Sellers are reclaiming control after a failed bullish push.
Entry Zone: A defined area where downside acceleration is likely to begin.
Risk Control: Stop-loss levels remain tight (around 40–50 pips) to safeguard capital.
Trading Outlook
Consider short positions near the highlighted resistance or confirmation candle.
Targets: Short-term take-profits at recent support or liquidity sweep zones.
Tip: Keep position sizing aligned with your risk plan — focus on accuracy, not aggression.
Trader’s Note
This signal is intended for short-term momentum trading. Always apply your own analysis, follow strict risk management, and treat this as a trade idea, not financial advice.
Gold trading analysis!After reaching its historic high of $4059/oz, gold entered a deep correction phase.
Price dropped sharply to $3944, then rebounded technically to around $3990, but buying momentum quickly faded.
Currently, gold is hovering near $3950, reflecting a cautious sentiment around a critical support zone.
Technical Analysis
• Short-term trend: 🔻 Bearish correction
• Key Resistance: 3995 – 4010 | next 4030
• Major Support: 3930 – 3915 | deeper at 3890
• EMA20/50 (H1): Price remains below both → bearish bias intact
• RSI (H1): Flat near neutral zone → no clear reversal yet
• Candlestick pattern: Lower highs on H1/H4 → downward momentum sustained
Market Outlook
Sellers continue to dominate in the short term.
If gold fails to break above 4010, it may extend the decline toward 3915–3890 in the coming sessions.
However, that support area could attract strong buying interest, potentially triggering a rebound.
Trading Strategy
SELL XAU/USD: 4009 – 4012
TP: 40/80/200 pips
SL: 4015
BUY XAU/USD: 3898 – 3895
TP: 40/80/200 pips
SL: 3885
Gold faces pressure after double top — watch 3980 and 3942 Gold formed a double top yesterday near Wednesday’s historic high before sliding to $3944 during the US session — and momentum still points slightly downward.
As I’ve repeatedly warned at higher levels — beware of FOMO. Sharp declines can happen anytime, yet a rebound remains possible as long as the US government shutdown continues.
Friday is often known as the “Global Margin Call Day,” but of course, that doesn’t apply to GoldRider followers.
Stick to your entry levels and never trade without a stop loss. Discipline comes before profit.
🔸Bullish Scenario (Buy):
Entry: Only above 3980 (risk entry from 3972)
Targets: 3988 – 3994 – (4001–4004) – 4014 – 4023 – 4033 – 4044 – 4057 – 4072 – 4088 – 4100
🔸Bearish Scenario (Sell):
Entry: Safe entry below 3942 (risky entry 3969)
Targets: (3942–3938) – (3924–3920) – 3915 – 3905 – 3894 – (3883–3877) – 3862 – 3842 – 3827
Note: If you find this analysis helpful, I truly appreciate you sharing it with others.
Disclaimer:
This analysis reflects my personal market view only and is not financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves high risk, and all decisions are the sole responsibility of the trader.
#Gold #GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #GoldRider #SafeHaven #MarketUpdate #USShutdown #GlobalMarkets #Investing #RiskManagement
XAUUSD SUPPORT, RESISTANCE & TRENDLINE ANALYSISI always try to keep it simple. The 15 min trendline has broken the low. I will plan for downside move today with targets 3940 / 3924 and maximum till 3918.
For upside if it breaks the 4000 mark then see further upside with 4024 & 4060 as your target.
NOTE: My personal view is Bearish in the short term.
9/10/68 : XAUUSD ( US Session )Using it from US Session until 11.00AM , I'll new analysis and update at 12.00PM
Resistance
4065-4070
4055-4060
4050
Support
4039
4028-4033
4017-4023
UPTOBER : what a time to be alive.Uptober: When Scarcity Meets Sentiment — The Bullish Convergence Across Global Assets
scarcity is rewriting value across the markets. We’re witnessing history in real time.
What a time to be alive as an investor. Uptober isn’t just a catchy phrase this year, it feels like the start of a new financial chapter. We’re witnessing history unfold in real time: Bitcoin and Gold pushing toward all-time highs, Silver stirring from years of compression, and capital flowing back into scarce, tangible assets. It’s a month where macro meets momentum, a new dawn for crypto, commodities, and conviction. The narratives of the past decade are converging into one truth: opportunity now belongs to those who recognize structural change before the headlines do. Uptober isn’t hype, it’s the manifestation of years of build-up across the global financial system.
Every October, traders whisper the same term with cautious optimism “Uptober.”
Historically, it’s the month when risk sentiment warms up, capital rotates back into growth and store-of-value assets, and liquidity begins to flow again after the quiet of September.
But this year, Uptober feels different.
This isn’t just optimism. It’s supply compression meeting rising demand across Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, and other commodities supported by both technical structure and fundamental scarcity.
Let’s decode what’s really happening beneath the charts.
⚪ Silver — The Hybrid Asset
Fundamentals:
Industrial demand boom: Solar, EV, and electronics demand surging.
Limited mine output: Many silver mines also produce copper and zinc, creating structural supply constraint.
Monetary tailwind: As gold rises, silver attracts secondary capital flows.
Undervalued ratio: Gold-to-silver ratio near historical extremes (~85–90) suggests mean reversion potential.
Narrative: When silver lags, it’s not weakness — it’s compression waiting for ignition.
🟤 Copper — The Quiet Pulse of Global Growth
Fundamentals:
Electrification demand: EVs, renewable infrastructure, and data centers accelerating consumption.
Supply bottlenecks: Political instability in Chile and Peru (key producers) constrains output.
Structural deficit: Inventories at multi-year lows — visible stocks <3 weeks of global demand.
Reindustrialization theme: Western economies rebuilding manufacturing capacity.
Narrative: Copper is not just metal — it’s electricity in solid form, and the world needs more of it.
🟢 Uranium — The Energy Transition Dark Horse
Fundamentals:
Nuclear renaissance: Global re-acceptance of nuclear power as clean base-load energy.
Mine depletion: Key mines in Kazakhstan and Canada struggling to ramp supply.
Inventory depletion: Utilities are now restocking aggressively after years of under-contracting.
New policy tailwinds: US, France, Japan, and China expanding nuclear capacity.
Narrative: Uranium’s bull market is what happens when ideology meets physics.
💠 Platinum & Palladium — The Industrial Precious Pair
Fundamentals:
Automotive catalyst demand: As emissions standards tighten, platinum group metals gain.
South African supply disruption: Power issues and strikes reduce consistency of exports.
Shift in substitution: Automakers gradually replacing expensive palladium with cheaper platinum.
Jewelry demand recovery: Especially from India and China.
Narrative: Platinum and palladium are quietly benefiting from both scarcity and industrial evolution.
💹 Global Equity Indices — The Liquidity Premium Returns
Fundamentals:
Rate cut expectations: Markets beginning to price in a softer Fed stance into 2025.
Earnings resilience: Mega-cap tech and AI-driven sectors outperforming.
Record buybacks: Corporations recycling profits into equity repurchases.
Retail inflows returning: October often marks seasonal optimism.
Inflation normalization narrative: “Soft landing” hopes sustain valuations.
Narrative: Equities are feeding on policy hope, not just earnings reality.
🪙 Ethereum & Layer-1 Ecosystem — Network Utility Meets Macro Recovery
Fundamentals:
Post-Merge supply deflation: ETH issuance net negative since the Merge.
Staking yield attractiveness: Staked ETH acts as yield-bearing “crypto bond.”
L2 ecosystem growth: Scaling solutions like Arbitrum and Base increasing on-chain activity.
DeFi revival: Stablecoin liquidity returning as macro confidence improves.
Institutional integration: ETH futures and ETFs widening exposure channels.
Narrative: Ethereum’s bull case is built on activity, not hype — it’s the digital economy’s backbone.
🪵 Agricultural Commodities — The Weather Premium
Fundamentals:
Climate irregularities: El Niño continues to disrupt crop yields globally.
Geopolitical logistics: Black Sea tensions and export restrictions tightening grain supply.
Biofuel demand: Corn and soy increasingly diverted to renewable energy production.
Inventory compression: Lower global reserves across wheat, corn, and soybeans.
Narrative: Food inflation is the quietest, most persistent form of monetary feedback.
🌐 Macro Synthesis — The Scarcity Supercycle
The connecting thread across all these assets is scarcity meeting fiscal expansion.
Governments are spending, central banks are cornered, and real assets, the ones you can’t print are being repriced accordingly.
Inflation may moderate in data, but structurally, cost of production and deglobalization pressures are lifting the floor on prices.
This cycle isn’t speculative; it’s revaluation through necessity.
🧭 Uptober as a Behavioral Catalyst
“Uptober” is more than a meme. It’s a behavioral shift in market posture — when optimism, liquidity, and narrative align just enough to turn potential energy into motion.
Traders re-enter after Q3 rebalancing.
Funds rotate back into risk and real assets.
Positive seasonality compounds sentiment.
When fundamentals already lean bullish, this sentiment loop can accelerate performance across asset classes.
🔮 CurrencyNerd’s Final Take
This Uptober is powered not by hope, but by structure:
Limited supply across metals, energy, and crypto.
Expanding demand from policy, technology, and demographic cycles.
Liquidity rotation from paper to tangible value.
The smartest trades this month aren’t emotional they’re observational.
“Markets don’t reward prediction; they reward preparation. Uptober is for those who saw the imbalance forming months ago.”
honourable mention :
BTCUSD/XAUUSD
put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
long/ updateprice continues to give rejection at trend line resistance area. looking for further potential to the upside. This analysis may change at any time without notice and is provided solely for educational purposes to help traders make independent investment decisions.
The information and publications are not intended to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView.
XAUUSD : SayonaraIt is time again.
I would just patiently wait.
Just to see how high you can go.
Come on, show me what you have.
By now, you must be really tired.
You know you can never beat a harmonic pattern player who is ever so patient.
Good luck @ $4,100
4050-4030 oscillation, break to decide the direction#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
The hourly gold line in the U.S. market closed with a large positive line after a series of dojis, but it still did not break through the 4050-4030 oscillation range, proving that the bulls and bears in the current market are still fighting for dominance.
As I reminded you before, once it falls below 4030, gold may test the support range of 4020-4010 in the US market. We can wait for gold to return to the support before going long, which is still a reference. Because we are still in an upward channel, the core trading idea remains unchanged.
However, one thing that needs to be noted is that because the bulls and bears are fighting for the dominant low position, we also need to be vigilant on the upper side. As time goes by, once gold stabilizes above 4050, it will definitely touch the channel pressure near 4065 again.
Therefore, the short-term main long and auxiliary short ideas remain unchanged. If the gold price rises first and touches the upper channel pressure while waiting for the gold to retreat, we can still consider shorting gold with a light position.
See below for more real-time updates👇
Gold Trade Set Up Oct 8 2025Price has pushed well above PDH and created a new ATH once again so as long as the 15m support holds i will be looking for a BOS on the 15m and retest into a 5m/15m demand to take buys higher
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Gold PredictionIf the end of year bull run on Gold targets the same % as the beginning of the year run, then it is possibly targeting 4500 area.
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#GoldPrices
