Gold vs The Stock Markets.Gold vs The Stock Markets.
Phase A is in play.
History says Phase B comes next.
Another bull era for gold, silver, oil & friends is setting up.
SPOTGOLD trade ideas
Gold Bullish Setup Towards 3910 ATHThis chart shows the XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) 1-hour timeframe analysis. Price is currently trading around 3863, following a strong bullish trend supported by an upward trendline. The market recently bounced from the support area and continues to push higher, confirming buyer strength.
Key levels are highlighted:
Immediate support: 3853 – 3807 zone, aligned with the trendline.
Resistance levels: 3873 and 3900, with the next target at 3910 (new all-time high).
The projection suggests that as long as gold holds above the support trendline, price is likely to continue its bullish momentum, potentially reaching 3910. However, a break below the support could trigger a deeper pullback.
👉 Overall bias: Bullish, targeting 3910 ATH if momentum sustains.
GOLD: Back from 3795 with target 4000GOLD: Back from 3795 with target 4000
After gold reached 3871.6 earlier today, we saw a strong sell-off that occurred as a profit-taking moment, pushing the price down to 3795.
Currently, buyers are still strong and as long as the price stays above 3795, I don't see any hope for a down move yet. Gold remains in a clear and strong uptrend.
It seems like everyone is trading only gold. It seems like all the market volume is invested only in gold :)
As we can see, the US reported good JOLT data 7.22M vs. 7.2M, but again the US dollar is weak.
The targets are still valid as in the last analysis I posted.
Main targets: 3850; 3900; 3950 and 4000
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Excellent re-Buy orders on GoldAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: 'My position: I have made excellent Profits on Gold Buying #3,801.80 firstly towards #3,812.80, then when #3,810.80 established decent Support zone, Bought Gold aggressively towards #3,827.80 extension. Unfortunately, I have closed most of my Buys there however Profit was excellent since I Traded with 200 Lot's. Well done for all who followed my Buying calls, well done!
Gold is on the way to test my #4,000.80 benchmark for the fractal.'
I have closed my orders on #3,827.80 however engaged another set Buying orders last night with no Take Profit and manually closed all my orders on #3,886.80 few moments ago. This is indeed real delight for all Traders to participate on Bull trend, booking excellent Profits on the way up towards my #4,000.80 benchmark Medium-term Target.
My position: I do believe however that Gold is set for small pullback then another wave to the upside. I assume no new orders for now.
Gold at Key Decision Zone: Breakout or Breakdown?Hello guys!
Let's analyze Gold!
🔸 Current Market Structure
Price is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle after a strong bullish run.
Momentum remains positive, but sellers are defending the upper trendline.
Key short-term support is around 3,720 – 3,710 zone.
🔺 Bullish Scenario (More Probable)
If price breaks above the triangle resistance, we could see continuation toward 3,770 – 3,790 levels.
Structure favors buyers as long as price holds above 3,720.
🔻 Bearish Scenario (Alternative)
If the price loses the 3,710 support zone, sellers may take control.
Downside targets:
First support: 3,690 – 3,680 zone
Key target: 3,676 area
🔹 Conclusion
More probable scenario: A bullish breakout continuation.
Risk to watch: If the support fails, the price could quickly revisit 3,676.
Best approach: Wait for a confirmed breakout before entering.
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
XAU/USD Intraday Analysis – October 1, 2025Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading around 3,887 USD/oz, showing strong bullish momentum on the hourly timeframe. The price action indicates a clear uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows forming since mid‑September.
Technical Overview:
Trend: Uptrend confirmed by consecutive bullish candlesticks and ascending trendline.
Support Levels:
3,760 – 3,750 USD/oz: Major intraday support zone, tested multiple times and held strongly.
Resistance Levels:
3,890 – 3,895 USD/oz: Immediate resistance zone where recent price action paused before breaking higher.
Key Observations:
The recent breakout above the previous resistance indicates strong buying pressure.
Price is currently respecting the ascending trendline (blue line on chart), which may act as dynamic support for the next bullish leg.
Pullbacks toward the trendline could offer high-probability buying opportunities for intraday traders.
Short-term traders should watch for reversals near 3,910 USD/oz, which could temporarily cap upside movement.
Trading Strategy:
Buy Strategy: Enter on pullbacks to 3,875 – 3,880 USD/oz with stop-loss below 3,865 USD/oz. Target near 3,905 – 3,910 USD/oz.
Sell Strategy: Consider shorting only if a strong bearish reversal candlestick pattern forms near the 3,910 USD/oz resistance.
Conclusion:
Gold remains in a strong intraday uptrend. Momentum favors the bulls, and the next leg higher could push prices toward 3,910 USD/oz. Traders should focus on trend-following entries while monitoring key resistance for potential profit-taking.
Follow for more intraday gold strategies and high-probability setups, and bookmark this analysis if you find it useful for your trading decisions.
Gold consolidation a new chance formed to Growth sideGold has reached a new ATH (all-time high) in today’s session, reflecting strong bullish momentum US Government Shutdown Risk (Oct 1) a potential shutdown would likely weaken the dollar due to economic uncertainty Fed Rate Cut Probability (~90%): Markets are pricing in a high chance of a rate cut in October, which would further pressure the USD and support gold prices Even though some Fed officials remain cautious, the macro bias still points to a weaker USD, which is bullish for gold.
Technically ; After making a new ATH, price could retrace to the support zone (3795). This is normal profit-taking behaviour A false breakdown (brief dip below support followed by a strong rebound) is likely. If this happens, price could accelerate upward again. and we could find a next Physiological level 3885,
You may find more details n the chart,
Trade wisely best of luck buddies.
Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Supporting.
XAU/USD 4H Chart – Bullish Pullback Setup to Key Support ZoneAnalysis Overview:
📈 Trend:
The price is currently moving in an ascending channel, indicating a bullish trend.
Price has recently touched or slightly exceeded the upper boundary of the channel, suggesting a potential pullback.
🟦 Support Zone (Buy Zone):
Marked in blue, between 3,764.828 (Trade Entry) and 3,718.674 (Stop Loss).
This zone aligns with a previous consolidation area, which now acts as a strong support.
✅ Entry Plan:
Wait for price to retrace into the blue support zone.
Ideal entry around 3,764.828, possibly after a bullish signal (e.g., pin bar, bullish engulfing).
❌ Stop Loss:
Placed just below the support zone at 3,718.674, protecting the trade in case the structure fails.
🎯 Target (TP):
3,975.534 — This is labeled as the LABA TARGET POINT, near the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
Risk-reward ratio appears favorable, roughly 4:1 if using the full range between entry and stop loss.
🧠 Trade Idea Summary:
Setup Type: Pullback to Support in Bullish Channel
Bias: Long/Bullish
Entry Zone: 3,764.828 (support)
Stop Loss: 3,718.674 (below structure)
Target: 3,975.534 (channel top)
Conditions to Watch:
Confirm reversal within the buy zone before entering.
Monitor for bearish breakdown if price closes below stop loss zone.
⚠️ Risk Management Tips:
Use proper position sizing based on your account size and stop loss.
Do not enter early; wait for confirmation (e.g., bullish candle pattern) in the support zone.
Keep an eye on macroeconomic news (e.g., NFP, interest rate updates) as gold is very sensitive to these events
GOLD: Unstoppable Gold Rally Continues - Eyes on 4000GOLD: Unstoppable Gold Rally Continues - Eyes on 4000
Gold seems to be unstoppable with good or bad US economic data. With or without a rate cut from the FED.
Why it is only rising is a big topic because we can only speculate about tariffs, the US economy, the global situation in general. However, ultimately, these are just guesses because the real movement started when Israel attacked Hamas and has not stopped since.
Currently, gold broke another strong resistance area at 3790 and reached a new record high at 3811 so far.
If the market continues to maintain this bullish momentum above 3790, then gold could reach 4000.
I think this whole situation makes no sense, but that's just the way it is.
Key targets: 3850; 3900; 3950 and 4000.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Gold can Bounce From Channel Support and Continue HigherHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market context for Gold has been firmly bullish since the price action reversed its prior downward channel, a move that established the current, well-defined upward channel. This structure has been methodically guiding the price of XAUUSD higher through a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows, confirming that buyers are in control of the dominant trend. Currently, after recently testing the channel's upper resistance line, the asset is undergoing a healthy corrective phase. This pull-back is guiding the price towards a critical confluence of support, where the ascending support line of the channel meets the horizontal support zone around the 3625 current support level. In my mind, this correction is an opportunity to join the uptrend. I expect that the price will find support on the channel's lower boundary and initiate a new upward rebound. I think this move will carry the price to a new high within the channel. Therefore, I have placed my TP at 3930 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
XAUUSD 2025: Recalibrate Your Thinking or You Won’t SurviveThesis: If you don’t recalibrate your volatility expectations for Gold, you won’t survive this market. What felt like a “big move” in 2021 is just noise in 2025.
________________________________________
1) Context: What Actually Happened (2020 → 2025)
• 2020–2023: Gold largely oscillated in a broad range around the $1,700–$2,000 handles (with occasional spikes beyond). Many traders anchored their risk and target expectations to this regime.
• March–April 2024: A decisive breakout to fresh all-time highs shifted the regime from compression to expansion.
• Late August 2025: Price broke out of a symmetrical triangle around the ~3330 zone and then advanced near-vertically into late September, ushering in a burst of exceptional volatility.
Bottom line: The market transitioned from a four-year consolidation into a powerful expansion phase. Your playbook must evolve accordingly.
________________________________________
2) Volatility Math: Same %, Bigger Dollars → Bigger “Pips”
Many retail platforms quote XAUUSD so that 1 pip ≈ $0.10. Using that convention:
• In the $1,900–$2,000 environment, a 2% move ≈ $38–$40 → 380–400 pips.
• At $3,300–$3,800, the same 2% ≈ $66–$76 → 660–760 pips.
So those “300–400 pip moves” you treated as significant in 2021 or2022 are structurally too small for 2025.
In expansion phases, 1,000+ pip swings are perfectly normal.
Key takeaway: If price doubles, absolute fluctuations for the same percentage move roughly double too. Stop using yesterday’s pip yardstick.
________________________________________
3) Why Recalibration Matters
The market is not static. Traders who survive across cycles are those who adapt to new volatility regimes. Anchoring to outdated benchmarks—whether in pips, percentage moves, or psychological comfort zones—leads to poor decisions.
It is not enough to have a strategy. You need the right frame of reference for volatility, risk, and expectations.
A system built for a $1,800 gold market cannot simply be copied and pasted into a $3,500 gold market without adjustment.
________________________________________
4) The Psychological Shift
Recalibration is not only technical but also mental:
• Old anchors: What once felt like a big move is now an intraday fluctuation.
• Risk perception: A number that once signaled danger may now be just routine volatility.
• Flexibility: The willingness to redefine “normal” is the mark of a trader who lasts.
This is not abstract theory. For example, I started writing this article when Gold was trading at 3860. By the time I reached this paragraph, price had already dropped to 3815, after making a low at 3810—an almost 700-pip drop from today’s all-time high in just three hours.
By the time you read this, it may be trading at a completely different level. That’s the reality of expansion volatility.
And here’s the perspective shift: these days, being happy about booking 100 pips on Gold is like being happy for 10 pips on EURUSD. It’s not that 100 pips don’t matter—it’s that the scale of the game has changed, and your mindset must change with it.
________________________________________
5) Moving Forward
Your survival depends on continuous mental updates. Understand that volatility is relative to price, that regimes change, and that clinging to old measures is a recipe for losses. General principles—risk discipline, patience, and adaptability—remain constant, but their practical application shifts with the environment.
Recalibrate, or the market will do it for you.
Oct 1, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis:
Although yesterday saw a deep pullback, the daily close suggests that bulls remain in control.
Watch the 3868 resistance — failure to break above could trigger a reversal. If price holds above 3868, upside targets are 3872, potentially extending to a new high near 3899.
The overall plan remains buying dips into support. Without a clear bearish signal, short positions are not recommended.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 3899 – Projected bullish target
• 3880 – Bullish target
• 3868–3872 – Resistance zone
• 3863 – Resistance
• 3850 – Support
• 3840 – Support
• 3834 – Support
• 3828 – Support
• 3820–3823 – Support zone
📈 Intraday Strategy:
SELL: If price breaks below 3860 → target 3855, with further downside toward 3850, 3845, 3840
BUY: If price holds above 3865 → target 3869, with further upside toward 3872, 3880, 3885
Gold – Straight Up, Straight Question1. Yesterday’s Move Recap
Like everyone else these days, I’m trying to make some sense of Gold’s move. Let’s be honest: even if you were extremely bullish, you wouldn’t have expected this kind of vertical line in the past 6 weeks or so.
The market is clearly overextended, and while momentum is impressive, technical traders know what usually follows such parabolic moves.
2. Key Question
Is Gold about to enter a much-needed correction, or can this euphoric rally defy gravity for longer?
3. Technical Observations
• Since the 2700 ATH zone in September, Gold has been carving out a repeating rhythm:
o Monday: explosive new ATH push
o Tuesday: spikes and volatility
o End of the week: corrective drop
• The last strong move (Friday the 19th → Wednesday the 23rd) measured around 1600 pips.
• If we project a similar extension from last Friday’s start, the measured move points toward 3885–3890 — right at the top of the newly formed channel.
This zone is not a certainty but an interesting confluence of measured move symmetry and technical channel resistance.
4. Why I Expect a Correction
• Gold has recently shown a tendency to correct after Wednesday.
• We are already in stretched territory with limited room for new buyers at these levels.
• Corrections are not only natural but necessary for healthy continuation.
5. Trading Plan
For me, the only trade that makes sense here is shorting spikes into resistance — anticipating a strong correction. I’m currently flat, but if we see exhaustion signs near 3885–3890, I’ll consider positioning short. The same strategy worked well last time,so...
6. Closing Thought
Patterns don’t always repeat perfectly, but they rhyme. If Gold follows its recent script, a midweek top followed by correction wouldn’t surprise me at all. 🚀
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see update on our 4H chart idea from last week, which is playing out as analysed and still valid to continue to track for the coming week.
After completing our Bullish targets last week with ema5 cross and lock confirmation, we are now seeing price play between 3738 and 3778. . We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either of these two weighted level to determine the next range.
We will also now use lower Goldturns for support and Bounce until we see further cross and lock above for a continuation.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3696 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3696 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3738 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3738 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3778 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3778 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3811 -
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3811 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3845
BEARISH TARGETS
3655
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3615
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3615 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3583
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3583 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3546
3509
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3509 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3458
3409
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold is making another record pullback then spike This chart analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) on the 1-hour timeframe shows a bullish outlook with a focus on the support trend line.
Price recently pulled back after a sharp rise but is holding above the support zone and support trend line.
If the support holds, gold is expected to bounce and resume its upward move.
Key resistance levels to watch are 3873 and 3900, with a potential target at 3910 (New ATH).
A break below the support trend line could weaken bullish momentum, but as long as it holds, the outlook remains positive.
👉 Overall, the analysis suggests a bullish continuation setup with higher targets if support sustains.
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3780 and a gap below at 3753. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3780
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3780 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3802
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3802 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3825
BEARISH TARGETS
3753
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3753 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3734
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3734 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3705
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3705 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3683
3654
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3654 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3622
3592
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEDaily Chart Update – Follow Up
3776 Target Achieved!!
Previously, we highlighted the importance of a candle body close above 3683, which opened the gap toward 3776. That target has now been hit with precision last week.
With 3776 now achieved, the key focus shifts to the daily close:
A sustained candle body close above 3776 will confirm the breakout and open the path toward 3866, especially if we see the EMA5 cross and lock in alignment.
For now, any rejection at this level would ideally see the channel top act as support, allowing room for a healthy correction while maintaining the broader bullish structure.
However, if price rejects and slips back into the channel, then range-bound play resumes within the channel zone.
Current Outlook
🔹 3683 Target Reached
Our breakout sequence played out with precision, starting from the EMA5 lock above 3564 and extending to complete the 3683 objective.
🔹 3776 Target Completed
Last weeks price action delivered the full upside completion into 3776. Now, new daily close will decide whether the breakout extends further into new ranges.
🔹 Key Inflection – 3776
Close above = breakout expansion toward 3866.
Rejection = retest of 3683 and channel top as support, or deeper channel play if momentum fades.
Updated Key Levels
📉 Support – 3683 & Channel Top
📉 Deeper Support – 3564 & 3433
📉 Pivotal Floor – 3272
📈 Resistance / Next Upside Objective – 3866 (on confirmed close and EMA5 lock above 3776)
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Reaccumulation. Breakout. Distribution.
Gold. 120 days of reaccumulation.
The cT scenario looks like the base case — aiming for 3550–3600.
I’m working this setup.
What comes next is likely years of volatile distribution OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1!
Gold Surges to 14-Year High Amid US Government Shutdown RiskHello everyone,
Gold extended its rally today, reaching its highest level in 14 years as safe-haven demand soared. The main driver comes from political uncertainty in the US, particularly the looming risk of a government shutdown as Congress struggles to pass a short-term spending bill.
From a technical perspective, gold has broken out of its FVG zone and is approaching the 3,850–3,870 USD resistance area, which now stands as the critical barrier. A decisive break above could open the door toward 3,900 USD or higher. On the downside, the 3,815–3,790 USD range (green FVG) is serving as dynamic support and a cushion for the ongoing bullish momentum.
News flow remains the dominant catalyst. The US budget standoff and shutdown fears raise concerns about disruptions in federal services and the broader economy, prompting investors to flock to gold. At the same time, the dollar is under pressure due to political instability, while weaker US 10-year bond yields and falling oil prices further strengthen the precious metal’s bullish backdrop.
What do you think about gold’s next move? Share your view in the comments!
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPWeekly Chart Update – Follow Up
3732 Hit & Closed Above, 3806 Gap Opens
Previously we saw 3659 tested again with a weekly candle body close above the level, officially opening and completing 3732 last week.
Now, we’re closing above 3732, which leaves a long-range gap open at 3806 for the week ahead. This sets the stage for continued bullish progression but with correction risks still in play.
We must also keep in mind the possibility of a detachment correction back to 3659. Should momentum pick up during any such pullback, the channel top could align with the 3576 Goldturn to provide an additional zone of support and a potential springboard for continuation higher.
Current Outlook
🔹 3659 Retest & Close Above
Weekly close above 3659 confirmed strength and cleared the path higher.
🔹 3732 Objective Achieved
Target reached precisely after last week’s breakout, validating the continuation sequence.
🔹 3806 Range Gap Active
With a close above 3732, focus now shifts toward 3806 as the next upside range expansion.
🔹 Correctional Supports – 3659 & 3576
Detachment below highlights correctional risk. Both 3659 and 3576 (Goldturn) provide critical support zones, with the channel top acting as a confluence level for potential bounce.
Updated Levels to Watch
📉 Supports – 3659 & 3576 (correctional zones), deeper floor at 3482
📈 Resistance / Next Upside Objective – 3806
Plan
The bullish structure remains intact with upside potential toward 3806. A healthy correction into support zones (3659 / 3576) would help reset momentum while preserving the overall trend.
As always, staying flexible with structure and levels will be key heading into the week ahead.
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Beyond the Chart - GOLD Market Technical Analysis📉 XAUUSD Update
Price has entered the sell range after a newly formed Bearish FVG + rejection. The trendline is still holding, and buyers have not managed to break above it.
⚡️ Volatility is high (blue zone), signaling that the next move could be sharp.
🎯 Targets:
• First target → 3,795
• If price sweeps the gap here and confirms with a strong bearish close → 3,765
More Bullish On Gold (XAUUSD)Gold on the 4H timeframe is still showing strong bullish momentum. Since mid-September, price has been consistently forming higher highs and higher lows, which is the classic sign of an uptrend. Even though a recent “Sell” signal has appeared near the top, the overall structure has not broken down. What we’re seeing here is likely a short-term correction or profit-taking phase rather than a reversal. The important thing is that the price continues to hold above the $3,820–$3,830 area, which is acting as immediate support. If this zone holds, it gives the bulls a solid base to push higher.
The broader picture also favors the upside because gold has been trading well above the TDH bands, indicating momentum is intact. The reward-to-risk setup currently leans bullish, with the potential upside target near $4,100 compared to a stop level around $3,640. The recent candles suggest some hesitation, but as long as the market doesn’t fall below $3,640, the trend remains bullish. A decisive break above $3,900 would likely accelerate the move toward $4,100, while holding above $3,825 on dips will keep buyers confident.
Trade Setup (Bullish Bias)
• Entry: Around $3,825–$3,835 or on small dips
• Stop-Loss: Below $3,640 (swing low support)
• Take-Profit: $4,100 and beyond if momentum holds
• Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:1.5 (favorable for long positions)
Gold smashes record high: Gov shutdown + EOM flows drive rallyGold hit fresh all-time highs above $3,875 as multiple catalysts converged on September 30th. Let's break down the perfect storm driving this bull run and critical technical levels ahead.
Key Market Drivers:
US Government Shutdown: Congress fails to agree on fiscal budget by tonight's deadline – no jobs data Friday, Fed flies blind into October meeting
Fed Rate Cut Odds: 89% probability of October cut, 65% chance of December follow-up as economic data blackout begins
China's Golden Week: 8-day market closure starting tomorrow removes world's largest gold consumer from active trading
End-of-Month Flows: Quarter-end portfolio rebalancing adding fuel to momentum
Technical Analysis:
Triangle Breakout : Confirmed breakout from major consolidation pattern
Fibonacci Targets : 200% extension at $3,885 (current area), next target $3,920
Elliott Wave Count : Approaching potential 5th wave completion near $4,000
RSI Setup: Flat momentum suggests another leg higher before divergence
Trading Levels:
Resistance: $3,885 (200% Fib), $3,920 (triangle target), $4,000 (psychological)
Support: $3,830, $3,790 (swing low), $3,750 (triangle support)
Channel: Ascending channel intact – trend bullish while above support
Strategy :
Bullish Bias : Continuation above $3,850, target $3,920-$4,000
Risk Scenario: IF (possible) government deal reached, watch for profit-taking to $3,790
Stop Loss: Above $3,910 for any short-term correction trades
A historic confluence of political dysfunction, monetary policy uncertainty, and technical breakout adds to bullish bias.
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