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GOLD → Correction before growth and breakthrough of 3900...FX:XAUUSD has reached a new high of 3895. The dollar is recovering from its decline, and gold may form a correction. As prices rise, economic risks associated with NFP and the US government shutdown are increasing The suspension of NFP publication deprives the Fed and markets of a key benchmark for the labor market, increasing demand for defensive assets. The probability of a rate cut in October is estimated at 100%. Mixed JOLTS data (weak hiring) and fiscal risks are weighing on the USD, which in turn supports gold. Thus, the shutdown creates ideal conditions for gold to rise — uncertainty about Fed policy, a weaker dollar, and a flight to safety. Breaking through the $3900 level seems a likely scenario. Resistance levels: 3900, 3925 Support levels: 3871, 3854, 3831 A correction is forming after a small rally in the European session. Before continuing its growth, the market is entering a correction/consolidation phase. I have indicated the key support levels on the chart. If the bulls manage to keep the price above these zones, then we can expect continued growth in the short and medium term Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
9
Gold's Crisis Pattern: The Liquidation Before the Flight TVC:GOLD Crisis Pattern: The Liquidation Before the Flight Why Gold May Fall 25% Before Its Greatest Bull Run Yet While everyone expects gold to rally during the next crisis, history suggests something different: gold gets sold first, bought later. At $3,790, FX:XAUUSD may be setting up for its most painful - and ultimately profitable - cycle yet. Think of TVC:GOLD like a life preserver on a sinking ship. When panic first strikes, people throw everything overboard to stay afloat - even their life preservers. Only when they're drowning do they realize what they really need. The Crisis Liquidation Pattern 2000 Dot-Com Crisis: Pre-crisis peak: $326 Initial drop: -21% Crisis bottom: $255 Ultimate recovery: +650% over 11 years 2008 Financial Crisis: Pre-crisis peak: $1,033 Initial drop: -34% Crisis bottom: $680 Ultimate recovery: +180% over 3 years 2020 COVID Pandemic: Pre-pandemic peak: $1,696 Initial drop: -15% Bottom-to-recovery: +43% over 2 years, +160% over 5 years Key Distinction: Some will point to 2020, when TVC:GOLD rallied during the COVID crash. But that was a unique exogenous shock - the selloff lasted only weeks before unprecedented stimulus and collapsing real yields drove gold to new highs. In contrast, financial-system crises like 2000 and 2008 forced TVC:GOLD into year-long corrections before its hedge role reasserted. The 2025 setup looks far closer to those financial crises than to 2020's pandemic shock. 2025 Projection: Current peak: $3,790 (I think top already - might be wrong ) ✓ Expected initial drop: -20 to -25% Target bottom: $2,800-3,000 Long-term recovery target: $6,500+ by 2030 Why VELOCITY:GOLD Falls During Liquidity Crises? The Margin Call Cascade When leveraged positions blow up, investors sell what they can, not what they want to. TVC:GOLD , being liquid and unencumbered, becomes emergency cash. The Three-Phase Liquidation: Phase 1: "This is just a correction" - Hold everything Phase 2: "I need cash now" - Sell winners (including gold) Phase 3: "The system is broken" - Buy gold as currency hedge Think of it like a house fire: you don't grab the fire extinguisher first, you grab your wallet. Only after you're safe do you wish you'd saved the fire extinguisher. What Makes 2025 Different? Unprecedented Starting Point CAPITALCOM:GOLD at all-time highs vs. GDP ✓ Central bank buying at record levels Retail ownership through ETFs at maximum More holders means more potential sellers The AI Deflation/Monetary Inflation Paradox AI driving productivity gains (deflationary) Debt levels requiring monetary expansion (inflationary) Gold benefits from the monetary side, but falls in initial deflationary shock Geopolitical MCX:GOLD1! Demand vs. Financial Selling Central banks want VELOCITY:GOLD for de-dollarization But financial stress forces private selling first Result: Temporary oversupply before structural shortage The Crisis Timeline for Gold Stage 1: The Setup (Now - Q4 2025) CMCMARKETS:GOLDZ2025 Price Action: Sideways to slight decline Strong dollar pressure Real yields rising with Fed cuts Still viewed as "risk asset" by algorithms Target Range: $3,400-3,600 Stage 2: The Liquidation (Q4 2025 - Q2 2026) TVC:GOLD Action: Sharp 20-25% decline Forced selling from leveraged funds ETF redemptions as retail panics Dollar TVC:DXY strength peaks Target Bottom: $2,800-3,000 Stage 3: The Recognition (Q2 2026 - Beyond) TVC:GOLD Action: New bull market begins Currency debasement fears return Physical shortage becomes apparent Central bank buying accelerates Ultimate Target: $6,500+ by 2030 Key Indicators to Watch Immediate Danger Signals: TVC:GOLDSILVER ratio above 90(April 2025 100+) (currently 84 - expect further decline) ✓ Dollar Index TVC:DXY climbs higher towards 110 TVC:US10Y 10-year real yields above 4% (currently 4.17%)✓ Crisis Confirmation: TVC:GOLD falls below $3,200 on volume Mining stocks crash 40%+ Central bank buying announcements increase Physical premiums start expanding Recovery Signals: Dollar TVC:DXY weakening below 105 Fed pivots to QE Inflation expectations rising TVC:GOLDSILVER Gold/Silver ratio normalizing The Bigger Picture: Why This Sets Up Gold's Greatest Run Structural Drivers Post-Crisis: Debt Monetization: $30+ trillion deficits requiring QE Currency Competition: Digital currencies vs. physical gold Supply Constraints: Peak gold production reached Generational Shift: Millennials discovering gold after getting burned in "everything bubble" Historical Precedent: After every major financial crisis, gold enters its strongest bull market: Post-1971: +2,300% over 9 years Post-1999: +650% over 11 years Post-2008: +180% over 3 years Post-2025: Targeting +150-200% over 5-7 years Risk Management This Analysis Fails If: Fed pivots to massive QE immediately (before crisis) Fiscal stimulus exceeds $3 trillion rapidly Dollar collapses before financial crisis hits War/geopolitical crisis becomes primary driver Probability Assessment: 65%: VELOCITY:GOLD falls to $2,800-3,200 range before rallying 25%: TVC:GOLD holds above $3,400 and rallies immediately 10%: CMCMARKETS:GOLDZ2025 crashes below $2,500 in systemic crisis Conclusion: The Pain Before the Gain TVC:GOLD 's crisis pattern is counterintuitive but consistent: liquidation before allocation. The coming correction may be the last chance to accumulate gold before its transition from investment to monetary asset. Like Warren Buffett said: "Be greedy when others are fearful." When gold is getting panic-sold alongside everything else, that's when the foundation for the next great bull market gets built. The fire sale is coming. Are you prepared to buy? Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.
TVC:GOLDShort
by niclaxfx
22
"XAUUSD Bullish Setup Toward 3800–3810"This chart shows the XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) 1-hour analysis. Price is currently trading around 3769 after a bullish move. A support trend line is holding price momentum, suggesting buyers are still active above this level. Immediate support is seen near 3753, while the trendline also aligns with this support zone. If price respects the support trend line, a bullish continuation is expected. The upside targets are marked at 3800 as the next key level, and 3810 as a potential new all-time high (ATH). The projection indicates a possible short-term pullback to the trend line before resuming upward movement. Overall, the setup suggests a bullish outlook, as long as price stays above the support and trend line.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex_ViP_Signalss
31
XAU / USD 4 Hour Chart Short SellHello traders. Kaboom is all I can say. As per my previous analysis from a few hours ago I sold from top red line and closed 75% of the trade after about 200 pip. What an amazing day. My runner is still running and my SL is being moved down a to 10 pips from the bottom, so the trade will get taken out soon. Either way, what a great call for a potential set up and what a great impulse scalp sell trade. Done for the day, heck for the week at this point. Be well and trade the trend. All thanks goes to Big G. Happy Thursday
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by musclemilk0075
Long GOLDDue to a combination of factors, including concerns over inflation, low real interest rates, and a weakening U.S. dollar, which make gold an attractive hedge. Geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and recession fears also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, rising central bank purchases, supply constraints, and positive technical signals in the gold market further support bullish sentiment. As a result, traders are positioning for higher gold prices amid a backdrop of global economic and financial risks
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by tagasuyo
Analysis of gold price intraday trend!Market News: Spot gold prices fell in early Asian trading on Thursday (October 2nd), having hit a record high of $3,895 during the previous session. This was boosted by a weakening dollar and safe-haven demand triggered by the US government shutdown. Weak employment data also reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. The US government shutdown has been a key driver of this week's rise in London gold prices. S&P Global Ratings emphasized that this uncertainty directly impacts the Fed's monetary policy outlook and may even amplify the risk of a recession. Amidst the uncertain global economic outlook, gold is experiencing a strong bull market. Investors who seize the opportunity could reap rich returns. However, caution should be taken against the risk of profit-taking by bulls; rational investment is the key to long-term success. Yesterday's rebound in international gold prices suggests a weakening of short-term upward momentum. Investors should be wary of a further correction triggered by profit-taking. Technical Analysis: The US government has entered a shutdown, and the small non-farm payrolls data unexpectedly set a new record with a negative employment figure. Gold hit a new all-time high yesterday, breaking through 3880 and reaching 3895, setting a new all-time high. It surged higher in late trading before retreating to 3855. The daily chart is experiencing significant pressure at and above 3890. The RSI indicator is overbought above the 80-day mark, so be wary of a profit-taking correction in gold prices towards the end of the week. The short-term four-hour and hourly moving averages are converging at high levels, the Bollinger Bands are showing signs of converging, and the RSI indicator is retracing to its mid-axis. A wide range of fluctuations is expected during the day. The daily chart is gradually rising above a single moving average. As long as the support level of the single moving average is not broken, there is no possibility of a turnaround from strength to weakness. The lower support levels are at 3810 and 3750, respectively, on the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. Therefore, the strong will always be strong. Don't be afraid of buying into the rally, but be wary of a pullback and a breakout! The market needs to recover from the decline, but buying with strength is self-evident, and the rise is unassailable. Therefore, we should maintain a bullish buying trend today. Focus on the 4-hour 10-day moving average support at 3833 and wait for intraday corrections to this support level to buy! Trading Strategy: Short-term gold buy at 3830-3833, stop loss at 3822, target at 3870-3890; Short-term gold sell at 3892-3895, stop loss at 3904, target at 3850-3830; Key Points: First Support Level: 3842, Second Support Level: 3833, Third Support Level: 3820 First Resistance Level: 3870, Second Resistance Level: 3882, Third Resistance Level: 3898
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldenBigAge
Gold is bullish !From the current structure, Gold pushed lower to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) highlighted on the chart. That retracement into imbalance has now provided a healthy reset for price action. With the gap filled and buyers stepping in, my view is that Gold remains in a bullish market structure. The momentum suggests the metal is preparing for another leg higher, with the potential to challenge and push into new all-time highs. 📈 Conclusion: Gold is showing strong bullish conviction. The FVG fill acted as a technical catalyst, and as long as buyers hold above that zone, my bias is that the trend continues higher into fresh highs.
TVC:GOLDLong
by abo0o
GOLD XAUUSD The london gold market respected the 3854 30min demand floor and our new sell litmus test if broken on 30 min we will sell and target 300pips minimum. the supply roof at 3872-3871 was broken and it became our demand floor for intraday gain into a higher supply structure from our current all time high at 3893-3895 zone and on technical 30min resistance at 3883-3881 is contested ,this path will lead us to drop or retest the current all time high at 3893-3895. if we retest the current all time high we might extend buying into the 30min supply roof and exceed 3900 into 3918-3914 based on the graphical emotion of demand and supply of traders from our 30 min chart. layer by layer,the market is over bought. #gold #xauusd #dollar #us10y
PYTH:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD FULL ANALYZEDEAR ALL MY FRIENDS as I just checked Gold price Action in last weeks period this is my note : 1. price has completed strong uptrend. 2. price left strong liqudity on 3896 which is highest High. 3. this will make trader think about another upward trend. 4. corrections were weak and now I think there would be a downtrend or correction in major till filling gaps. *TRADING NOTE* 3870 is my stoploss for sells. now sell this price and keeping it till first value level which is 3793. "its just good business"
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by armindehghani
1
Gold Maintains Bullish Momentum Above Uptrend SupportAnalysis: The 1-hour chart of XAU/USD shows a strong upward trendline, which has been consistently respected by price action. After a clear bullish momentum breakout around September 25th, gold has continued to post higher lows, confirming buyers’ control of the market. Currently, gold is trading at $3,878, consolidating just below the $3,924–$3,935 resistance zone. The chart suggests two possible scenarios: Continuation: If the price respects the upward trendline and breaks above the $3,924–$3,935 resistance, gold could aim for new highs, extending the bullish run. Short-Term Pullback: A minor correction to retest the trendline is possible, but as long as the trendline holds, the bullish structure remains intact. Technical Outlook: Support: $3,855 / $3,785 Resistance: $3,924 – $3,935 Trend: Strongly bullish, supported by ascending trendline Bias: Buy on dips towards the trendline, targeting a breakout above $3,935
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DrForexPhd
Stop Hunts: How the Market Tests Your Patience“If the market keeps taking your stop before running in your direction… You might not be wrong — just too early.” What is a Stop Hunt? A Stop Hunt is when price pushes just far enough to trigger stops sitting above a high or below a low — and then reverses. It’s not random. It’s the market collecting liquidity before the real move begins. Why Stop Hunts Happen Stops are easy targets — they’re predictable. Institutions use them to fill big orders at the best prices. Your loss is their entry. How to Spot a Stop Hunt Mark clear swing highs and lows — obvious levels most traders are watching. Watch price sweep above/below those levels with a quick move. Wait. Don’t jump in — the first move is usually a trap. Drop to a lower timeframe (M1/M5) to get a precise entry confirmation. Look for structure shift or ChoCH after the sweep. Only then, consider entering — now you’re trading with the market, not against it. Example Refer to the Gold(XAUUSD) M15 chart above: Notice how price took out the previous swing low with a liquidity grab from the stop area — trapping early buyers — and only then launched into a strong up move. This is the classic stop hunt behavior that shakes out weak hands before the real trend continues. Patience turns a losing stop into a winning entry. The market isn’t against you — it’s just testing who can wait. 📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ChartIsMirror
XAU/USD – Buy Setup from Support Zone Targeting 39451. Trend Direction: Price is moving inside an ascending channel (bullish structure). Higher highs and higher lows confirm the uptrend. 2. Support Zone: Marked between 3820 – 3800 USD, a strong demand area where buyers previously stepped in. 3. Entry Point: Suggested Entry: ~3821 USD This aligns with the support retest inside the channel. 4. Stop Loss: Around 3794 USD, just below the support zone. This protects against false breakouts to the downside. 5. Target Point: 3945 USD (channel resistance). This gives nearly +120 pips potential upside. --- Risk/Reward Analysis Risk: ~27 points (3821 → 3794). Reward: ~124 points (3821 → 3945). R:R Ratio: ≈ 1:4.5 → very favorable. --- Overall Analysis Market is bullish inside the channel. Best trade setup: Wait for price to retest support (3820–3800) and then buy. As long as support holds, price has high probability to reach the target zone (3945). If support breaks, trend may weaken, and gold could move lower outside the channel. 📌 Conclusion: This is a buy-the-dip setup with strong reward-to-risk. Patience is key → wait for confirmation bounce from support before entering.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
4