Safe-Haven Demand Keeps Gold on Fire🔶 Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)
📊 Technical Structure
Gold retreated after touching fresh highs, now consolidating between $3,844–$3,860. The chart shows repeated bounces from the ascending trendline support, suggesting buyers remain active. Key resistance stands at $3,881–$3,886, and a breakout above could open the way to $3,900 psychological level. The short-term bias remains bullish as long as support holds.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,837–$3,843 (long)
Stop Loss: Below $3,833
Take Profit:
TP1: $3,881
TP2: $3,886
TP3: $3,900
Risk/Reward: 1 : 4.21
🌍 Macro Background
Gold remains supported by macro factors:
Fed Policy: Despite hawkish remarks from Dallas Fed President Logan warning about persistent inflation, markets are still pricing in a 99% chance of a 25bps rate cut in October. The USD has rebounded slightly, but overall sentiment remains bearish for the dollar.
Government Shutdown: The ongoing US government shutdown suspends official BLS data releases. However, September’s NFP figures are expected to be published, keeping labour market focus alive.
Labour Market: ADP report showed a surprise drop of -32K private payrolls, adding pressure on the Fed to cut rates.
Safe-Haven Demand: Rising geopolitical tensions and fiscal uncertainty continue to fuel safe-haven inflows into gold.
Despite intraday pullbacks, fundamentals remain gold-supportive.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $3,881 / $3,886 / $3,900
Support: $3,843 / $3,837
📝 Trade Summary
Gold is consolidating but holding critical support. As long as price sustains above $3,837, bulls retain control. The suggested long entry near $3,843 targets the $3,881–$3,886 area.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
