SPY Market Preview for Monday, September 8
Price Action & Market Structure
* SPY is trading around 648.4, consolidating inside a rising channel after bouncing from 644 HVL support.
* Momentum has slowed after rejecting near 649–650, but structure is still constructive as long as price holds above 646–645.
* Market bias remains neutral-to-bullish unless 644 breaks.
Key Levels
* Resistance (Upside Caps):
* 649–650 → Immediate resistance zone.
* 651–652 → Strong Call Wall / Gamma resistance.
* 653–655 → Higher extension levels.
* Support (Downside Floors):
* 646.0 HVL → Key balance level.
* 645.0–644.0 → Strong support cluster.
* 643.0–640.0 → Put Walls / deeper cushion.
Options Sentiment (GEX & IV)
* GEX: Bearish skew, with Puts 117.6% dominating positioning.
* IVR: 11.6, relatively low → options market not expecting extreme moves.
* Gamma Walls:
* 652–653 = Strong Call resistance.
* 646–644 = Strong support zone.
Indicators
* MACD (15m): Rolling bearish after early strength, showing momentum fading.
* Stoch RSI: Resetting lower, oversold zone nearing, could support bounce if 646 holds.
Scenarios for Today
Bullish Case (if 646–645 holds):
* Defend 646–645 support, push through 649–650.
* Targets: 651–652 → 653–655.
Bearish Case (if 646 fails):
* Breakdown under 646–645, move into 644 HVL.
* If 644 breaks → accelerated downside toward 643–640.
Trading Thoughts
* Longs: Buy dips near 646–645, targeting 650–652, stops below 644.
* Shorts: Fade rejection at 650–652, stops above 653.
* Stops:
* Longs → below 644.
* Shorts → above 653.
Summary
SPY sits at a pivotal mid-zone (646–650). Holding this range favors upside continuation into 652–655, but options positioning (Put heavy) warns of downside hedging pressure. A clean break under 646–644 flips momentum bearish into 640.
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Always manage risk properly.
