Trade ideas
Netdragon...Countertrend ahead?Hello Traders,
Netdragon made a high at HK$ @ 25.50 on April 19 and is correcting the tremendous move from HK$ 11.30 on January 4th!
The correction is showing „overlapping“ waves and failed to retrace a 0.382 Fibonacci of the advance, which is the minimum level for a correction to my view, if the advance was done at 24.50.
This overlapping structure is to my view a clear corrective pattern.
So, more bearish potenciall exist and a target at minimum is at HK$ 19.45 and the level of HK$ 18.-, were a wave „iv“ of lesser degree was done.
While a shortterm up-move is possible, a target range for this is around the 22.75-23-75 HK$. This area is at the upper boundary of the trendchannel (blue).
Notice that the volume is „drying up“ and it seems that there is no more „pressure“ to sell the stock.
We will check the patterns and developments for Netdragon and update the analyze if possible.
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!
Netdragon...Correcting in a wave "b/2"!Hello Traders,
Netdragon has made a high @ 24.50 on April 18,2019 and is correcting since in a „three-down“ so far. This is to my view wave „a/w“ of a flat correction, that can take the stock into a range at first to 19.45. This is the .382 fibonacci of the advance from 11.30-24.50! More bearish potencial exist.
It is a challenge to count this stock, cause of the bullishness to the advance. The stock has gained 15 weeks in a row (open to close) and rallied extremly. By observing the Volume, you will notice, that most of them, gained into the stock as possible wave „iii“ was developing and set the stage for wave „v“. I think that the pricerange from 17.90-24.50 is important for traders who enter that stock that late, `cause below the possible wave „iv“ range a lot of Stop loss orders are placed, to protect their positions.
If the high at 24.50 is wave „a/1“ we have a wide range for the stock to correct. This range last to 19.45-16.35 (.618 Fibonacci). If this count work out, the stock has a basis to rally, after the correction is done, for the rest of the year, maybe longer. The future for Netdragon seems positive!
We will watch the stock in the comings weeks and month and analyze this.
Have a great week....
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!
Netdragon...A red candle for Netdragon! WOW!Hello Traders,
Netdragon is showing weakness. After a long bull-ride, that started at January we have 4 red candle`s at the daily chart and the first red candle on a weekly basisi this yeat. A rare case for this stock.
Observe at chart, that the move to the new high (@ 24.50) was accompanied by declining volume, whichis typicall for a wave „5“ or „c“ of any degree.
Note, that the move to 24.50 was embedded in a trendchannel I have drawn at chart and a „trust“ is still to obsserve. After the return into the channel it is quite possible that Netdragon is moving to the lower boundayline of the channel a@ 21.- area. A brek of the lower line could open the door to the low at 18.- (closing) and 18.30 (intraday low)!
Thursdays closing price was @ 21.95, (5 Cent below the 0.382 Fibonacci (18-24.50) and Fridays close was well above (@ 22.30) showing a „flat“candle, a „doji“ often interpret as a candle of „uncertainty“! Any close, at minimium on a daily basis below the .382 Fibonacci will open the door to 21.25-20.50-19.45 zone.
The classic indicators return to neutral position, had left the strong „overbought“ areas, or the trending areas (depending from which point of view to interpret) this behavior.
So, the door is open to both side of the chart, down within a corrction, or up in direction of trend.
I will update the chart if anything new occurs.
Have a great Sunday
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!
Netdragon...End of advance?Hello Traders,
something new to report for all Netdragon Investors, the Hong Kong based chipmaker, has possible made a high of his advance wich is running into the twelvth week.
After todays open and intraday high 20.70 , the stock reversalt strong and slose the day at 18.86.
Second, it create a „bearish-engulfing“ pattern how it often occurs at a change of trend.
Third, observe the volume spike at the bottom of the chart, which is clear above the average and extend to 3.931 M stocks, today.
Fourth. Observe also a pattern, that shows the same characteristic pattern as of March 07-09 (highlighted with the elipse). And, it nearly met perfectly the blue dotted trendline and reversed from this level.
Notice also, that at 20.10 level a 0.382 Fibonacci is placed, and the stock reversed at that zone.
This all fact bring me to a conclusion, that at least net to get more evidence to develop.
A possible long advance has come to an end today, maybe ending a wave (i) of larger degree. So at next a wave „(ii)“ has to occure, which has to become a „three-wave-pattern“!
It is to early to judge, but is so, a multi week lasting correction should be next.
On the other hand. If this pattern today morph into a failure signal, means traders by this stock tommorow above the 20.70 area, than it would mean, that the advance will extend much longer.
The next days will be very interesting in which direction this stock will run!
Have a great day....
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!
Netdragon..UP!!UP!!...Hello Traders,
only one way for Netdragon, the Hong Kong based chipmaker. UP!!!
Since the start of 2019 the stock is rising in a clear uptrend and the next target is around the 19.08$, a peak high as of August 30,2018.
Using indicators as CCI and Full Stoch, both show overbought conditions since the start of the advance. But for now the stock is not willing to decline and give back some of his gains.
But note, as long a correction needs to take place, as stronger it may will become.
For the short term we can just conclude, that above the level of $17.20 the trend is likely to continue to the cited range. Just a red candle with high volume on a daily chart (at minimum) is needet to give a first hint for a possible change of trend. But for now, there are no signs to my view.
From a traders psychologically percpective the stock seem to be interesting.
Becaus of the fact by showing overbought conditions, it look to me, that many investors are waiting for a corrective move and would not enter the stock on the long side of a trade. At the other side, some traders hop in the stock and „scalp“ it for some Cent, even Dollars, and went out again (to observe by the „wicks“/shadows of the candles. As long as this behavior is existing, the stock will raise on and much traders and investors will wait for enter the stock...and wait...and wait!
Another fact is the volume. There is no „abnormal“ volume to observe, that is showing us, that an investor is exiting his position (to observe by volume bar below the graph). I have added a 13-day MA (which is a Fibonacci number) to chart and volumes behavior is around this level with no extradonary spike to either side, up or down.
I will follow stis stock closely and keep an eye on it.
It something new develop, I will update the chart.
Have a gret week....
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!
Netdragon...Bearish-engulfing occurs!Hello Traders,
Netdragon has risen as of the last analyse to 18.32 HK$ and reversed at this level sharp. It creates on a daily basis a „bearish-engulfing" which is a reversal-pattern, that often occurs after a long (up)trend and can be signal the start of a correction. Note that this reversal pattern occurs at a resistance zone, marked with the rectangle at chart.
Since the low @11.28HK$ Netdragon has risen ~7HK$, which is a solid ~63% gain. Not bad for 9 month of advancing prices.
So we have to face the opportunity, that a pause of the uptrend is next to occur, which is a good opportunity to breathe through.
For the shortterm the level of 18.32 is important. Any trading below this, increase the chance for a correction, which could have a target range of ~ 16.32, a 0.382 Fibonacci of the advance from 13.10-18.32! At the level of 15.40 a correction should end, otherwise it falls „out of range“ in Elliott terms.
On the other hand. If the high of 18.32 will be exceed, the bearish-pattern turns into a failed signal, that often is the best buy-signal and the trend is going towards higher highs.
So, for the short-term, the levels got set and we will see, how traders will act at Mondays trading start.
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Netdragon...Up, up...Hello Traders,
Netdragon, a Hong Kong listed stock, has risen to a weekly high at HK$ 16.78 intraweek and closed the week at HK$16.52! The move since the low at HK$11.80 (closing basis) is a clear uptrend (higher highs, higher lows) and as long as the low @ 16.52 is valid the focus is to the upside.
At chart you will observe the colored rectangle, which show you an open gap (on a hourly basis to check) and often times open gap`s act like a magnet. So it is possible that it will be filled.
On a shortterm observation take note, that there is resisstance ahead at 16.52, but also there is much room to rise by checking RSI and RoC!
So the coming days will be interesting to monitor. If the breakout of the declining trendchannel is the start to a new impulsive move, as I think it is, sooner or later a „kiss good-by“ will be occured by testing the upper line of the channel.
Have a great Sunday...
ruebennase
Netdragon...Wave (3) has started?Hello Traders,
let`s have a look to the Stock of Netdragon, a Hong Kong listed Company.
They went public in 2007 and the highest price to history was at HKD19.-!
After that high the stock declined sharply to HKD .92 in Nov. 08 near the high of the real estate crash.
After that massiv drop, the stock start a clear five-up that topped in May 2015 at HKD 42.04. The correction following that high is either an A-B-C decline within a wave (2) or it is wave A/W of (2)!
Observe the possible triangle within wave „B“ with a short, but sharp thrust and the decline that followed thereafter.
Note the nearly perfect trendchannel also, drawn at log-scale, that terminates at the level of a wave 4 of lesser degree, a typical target zone and it retraced at least a bit more as the .618 Fibonacci of the „five-up“! Twice to note is the running channel breakout which implies strength of the stocks, and, if so, we can call out a new high well above the level of 42.04 HKD!
Support receives this view from the „MSCI Emerging Markets Asia Infotech Index“ that may bottomt @€472 (@EUREX) in October 2018!
So for Traders it might be interesting to trade this stock with a stoploss @~HKD11.- and a first target at HKD 19.08 as long as the low @11.- keep intact!
So, that`s it for Sunday...
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analyze is at your own risk!
