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ISDN Holdings LimitedISDN Holdings LimitedISDN Holdings Limited

ISDN Holdings Limited

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Fundamentals + TechnicalsFundamentals: Is the worst over? 1) Revenue: 70% from China. Chinese gov is determined to support its economy, launching a fresh set of stimulus earlier this week. Trump 2.0 tariffs may spur the chinese government to improve more on manufacturing capabilities and equipment turnover, and ISDN is likely to benefit. ‌ 2) Semicon (SEA): ISDN suffered for past 3 years the downcycle of semicon. Normally semicon cycle is between 18-24 months. Somehow this downcycle is disrupted by the wave of AI chips. However lower end semicon chips are still being used 80% of the time. I believe the downcycle of semicon is in sights. This will help ISDN resume its high margin business. ‌ 3) Weak Yuan: A weak yuan vs SGD caused unrealised fx losses in FY 2022 and FY 2023. However yuan has relatively been stable in 2024 albeit minor weakness. Chinese gov loosened it's monetary policy for the first time since 2011. And if we go back to 2011, yuan strengthened against SGD significantly until 2015 when the chinese economy popped. Could we see similar trends? One thing for sure, Trump will not allow yuan to depreciate and may likely find a balanced deal. ‌ 4) Re-investments during downcycle for 3 years: ISDN's management has been talking about re-investing in people and capabilities during downcycle. Historically, companies that do that benefits strongly during upcycle of economy. ISDN in its recent "Theedge" article mentioned about building a platform for talents to push for upsides with limited downsides. This business strategy will play out when economy improves. ‌ 5) Hydropower plants: This money making machine is churning out cash for the company daily. Due to its stability of cashflows (from PLN) and electricity generation even during dry seasons, these assets open up many possibilities of realising gains, which includes asset sales, equity sales, or listing as mentioned in the annual report. What we can be assured is due to the stability of cashflow, the company is not in the hurry to sell the asset at depressed price, so when the sale does actually come, we know that it will be at least fairly priced. ‌ Technicals (weekly): ‌ ISDN is now at a descending triangle movement. Recently price stability above $0.3 with MACD crossing into positive territory could mean an explosive upside in weeks to come. Daily chart also sees stability above SMA 200 and monthly chart MACD histo crossed positively this month. ‌ I have set a price target of $0.465 and $0.61, representing roughly 50% and 100% gains respectively. ‌ Do your own dd.
SGX:I07Long
by CedricYang
Chart update for ISDNWe will have an upcoming 1H results in August. Here's my analysis. I believe 1H will be good, based on the following: 1. 1H historically always do better than 2H, except 2021 but that’s because of property sales proceeds in Q3. 2. 3 hydros running full steam compared to 1H 2023. 3. semicon has bottomed off and should be better than 2H 2023, which itself registered a gain compared to 1H 2023. 4. China has been improving sequentially from 1H 2023 to 2H 2023. And I see caixin PMI figures running on expansion 6 months continuously (Jan - Jun 2024), ISDN China should see good figures. 5. Yuan has stopped the decline from 2H 2023, meaning we will not see any meaningful fx depreciation 6. Low base of 1H 2023 at $4.5m profit.
SGX:I07Long
by CedricYang
Fundamentals and Weekly Technical align.ISDN just released its full year, though numbers are disappointing, the company mentioned that they had been re-investing heavily during down time to capture market share. With yuan bottoming, semicon seeing a pick up in 2H 2024, and Chinese advanced manufacturing boom for the foreseeable future, I expect a stella FY 2024 from low base of FY 2023. Technical wise, there is 3 supports that forms a good bullish divergence on MACD. Breaking the downward sloping resistance may see the price rebound to $0.415 before more upside.
SGX:I07Long
by CedricYang
[Analysis] ISDN (I07)(SG)Consolidation occurs when there is a presence of sellers in the market. Price will remain sideways until sellers have exhausted, then it will eventually rally up. The exhaustion in supply can be seen in decreasing volume within the same price range. As a trader, you need to understand that buying within this consolidation means, you will be held for some time. This is because while volume can hint at supply exhaustion, there is no way to 100% confirms such a fact. Hence, the expectation and assumption that price will immediately rally is the common cause of traders failing to catch any form of rally. Impatience and lack of holding power is a major contributing factor to retailers unable to secure profits. Traders will also need to ensure that after they entered, they are not stopped out while the consolidation is still ongoing. The cause is usually due to improper stop loss. Sad fact: Many traders are able to "pick" the right counter, but they are unable to execute a profitable trade.
SGX:I07Long
by NimbusCapital