Hitting the 50% Fibinocci in the next few days ...There will be a brief retracement in the next few days until Sept 22. I suspect it will hit the 50% fib but realistically it could hit any one of the other fib lines.
The reason I am thinking it will retrace is due to the indicators looking bearish, especially on the 4 hour indicators, etc.
This is just a brief retracement lasting a few days and the SPY will continue to go up after.
Always have stops in place and only use 10% or less of your trading account.
SRD trade ideas
SPY Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 663.63
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 661.35
Recommended Stop Loss - 664.75
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Potential $SPY Pullback AnalysisOverview
This section examines the possibility of a pullback in SPY, based on recent price movements and historical trends.
Current Price Stretch Relative to Moving Average
SPY is currently trading approximately 9.5% above its 30-week moving average. This level of extension is notable, as it approaches the threshold observed during previous pullbacks.
Historical Context
Looking back, the last significant instance when SPY was stretched about 10% above its 30-week moving average resulted in a pullback toward the end of March 2024. This comparison provides context for the current market situation.
Observational Note
It is worth noting that a confirmed closing price for the current week has not yet been established. This analysis is not a prediction, but rather an observation intended to increase awareness of market conditions.
decision pointThere are some key levels on AMEX:SPY i'm marking for the rest of the week. I still feel more bearish to rate cuts and post-rate cut announcement. There has been some strong upward pressure in the last week that it seems a bit irrational that we will not hit some cool off somewhere for an unknown period of time. There are some fib extension levels I marked for possible support/ resistance. Namely, 663.19 at the .236 and 667.08 at the .382. There are points above that as well marked. For support I have 654.81 and 650.97 which both lines up well with price action support/ resistance. if we break the more macro golden trendline I will be looking to leverage into a short position to a possible profit box on the downside towards some of these levels.
Rate cuts are ALREADY priced in, again, but anything that comes out that shifts our forward-looking projections could move price now. ie. future rate cuts, hawkish, dovishness etc.
Either way technicals still want cooling off but due to heavy bear pressure and this expectation being widespread we will see shorts getting squeezed a bit and price moving erratically at times to the upside (as we have ben).
Markets on Edge Ahead of Fed: Eyeing a CorrectionSimilar to what I mentioned in the silver outlook, I believe today the classic rule may play out: buy the rumor, sell the fact. This could trigger a pullback across the board — in precious metals (particularly silver and palladium) and, of course, in the broader equity market.
That said, it’s safer to consider entries closer to the Fed decision or even right after, since short-term market noise and potential manipulations are likely. I’ll be watching for opportunities, but any position will require a tight stop-loss, as the chart has yet to form a strong short setup — this trade is more of an idea than a clean technical pattern.
📝Trading Plan
🟢Entry: I plan to open a short closer to the Fed rate announcement.
🔴Stop: above yesterday’s high
🎯Target: 640
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in World Trading Systems1. Understanding CBDCs
1.1 Definition
A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is a digital form of a country’s sovereign currency, issued and regulated by its central bank. Unlike bank deposits or private stablecoins, CBDCs are a direct liability of the central bank, making them risk-free in terms of credit and liquidity.
1.2 Types of CBDCs
CBDCs are broadly categorized into:
Retail CBDCs – Designed for everyday transactions by individuals and businesses, functioning like digital cash.
Wholesale CBDCs – Used by banks and financial institutions for interbank settlements, large-scale cross-border trade, and capital market operations.
For world trading systems, wholesale CBDCs are particularly relevant because they address cross-border settlement delays, currency risks, and high transaction costs.
2. Historical Context of Trade & Money
To understand how CBDCs might transform world trade, we need to briefly revisit the evolution of money and trading systems.
Gold & Silver Standard: Ancient trade relied on commodity money (gold, silver, copper), valued for scarcity and intrinsic worth.
Paper Money & Fiat Currencies: With modern nation-states, paper currency and fiat systems emerged, backed initially by gold (Bretton Woods, 1944) and later by trust in governments.
The Dollar Dominance: Post-1971, the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, dominating global trade settlement, particularly in oil and commodities (Petrodollar system).
Digital Payments & Cryptocurrencies: In the 21st century, fintech innovation and blockchain technology challenged traditional banking, raising questions about efficiency, privacy, and sovereignty.
CBDCs represent the next evolutionary step—a blend of sovereign money and digital innovation—capable of transforming not only domestic payments but also cross-border trade systems.
3. CBDCs in Global Trade: Opportunities
3.1 Faster Cross-Border Settlements
Today, cross-border trade payments often take 2–5 days, relying on intermediaries, correspondent banks, and SWIFT messaging. With CBDCs, settlement can be instantaneous, reducing time and risk.
For example, a Chinese exporter selling goods to an African buyer could receive payment in digital yuan instantly, without waiting for dollar-clearing in New York.
3.2 Reduced Transaction Costs
International trade involves currency conversion, banking fees, and correspondent charges, which can add 3–7% to transaction costs. CBDCs, by enabling direct currency-to-currency exchange via digital platforms, could significantly lower costs.
3.3 Financial Inclusion in Trade
Many small and medium enterprises (SMEs), especially in developing economies, struggle with cross-border payments due to lack of banking access. CBDCs can democratize access, enabling SMEs to engage directly in global markets.
3.4 Bypassing SWIFT & Dollar Dependence
One of the most debated impacts of CBDCs is their potential to challenge US dollar hegemony. Currently, over 85% of global trade is invoiced in dollars or euros. CBDCs like the digital yuan (e-CNY) aim to provide an alternative, especially in Asia, Africa, and Belt and Road countries.
3.5 Programmable Money & Smart Contracts
CBDCs can be embedded with programmability, enabling conditional trade payments. For instance:
A CBDC transaction could release payment automatically once goods clear customs.
Smart contracts could enforce trade finance agreements, reducing fraud and disputes.
4. Key Global CBDC Experiments
4.1 China’s Digital Yuan (e-CNY)
The most advanced large-scale CBDC, piloted in over 25 cities.
Being tested in cross-border trade via Hong Kong, Singapore, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partners.
Aims to internationalize the yuan and reduce dollar dependence.
4.2 India’s Digital Rupee
Introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in 2022–23.
Wholesale pilot programs for interbank settlements.
Potentially useful for India’s high-volume trade with Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
4.3 Europe’s Digital Euro
European Central Bank exploring a digital euro for retail and wholesale use.
Expected to strengthen eurozone trade settlement systems and reduce reliance on US intermediaries.
4.4 Project Dunbar & Project mBridge
Project Dunbar (BIS): A multi-CBDC platform involving Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, and South Africa.
Project mBridge: Collaboration between China, Thailand, UAE, and Hong Kong, enabling real-time cross-border CBDC payments.
These pilots suggest that CBDCs are moving beyond national borders into multilateral trade systems.
5. Implications for World Trading Systems
5.1 Geopolitical Shifts in Currency Power
CBDCs could accelerate the shift from unipolar dollar dominance to a multipolar currency order, where regional CBDCs (digital yuan, digital rupee, digital euro) coexist and compete.
5.2 Trade Alliances & CBDC Zones
Countries may form CBDC trading blocs, agreeing to settle in digital currencies instead of dollars. For example:
BRICS nations exploring a CBDC trade platform.
Gulf states considering digital settlements for oil exports.
5.3 Transparency vs. Privacy
CBDCs offer traceability, reducing trade-based money laundering and fraud. However, this raises concerns about state surveillance of international transactions.
5.4 Impact on SWIFT & Correspondent Banking
If CBDCs enable direct central bank-to-central bank settlement, traditional intermediaries like SWIFT and correspondent banks could lose relevance.
5.5 Exchange Rate Mechanisms
With real-time settlement, CBDCs may require new FX models, possibly leading to dynamic currency baskets for trade invoicing.
6. Challenges & Risks
6.1 Interoperability
For CBDCs to work in world trade, different national CBDCs must interact seamlessly. This requires standardized protocols and cross-border agreements.
6.2 Cybersecurity Threats
CBDCs, being digital, face risks of hacking, cyberwarfare, and systemic attacks, which could disrupt global trade.
6.3 Monetary Sovereignty Conflicts
If a foreign CBDC gains dominance in another country (e.g., digital yuan in Africa), it may undermine local monetary control.
6.4 Technological Divide
Advanced economies may adopt CBDCs faster, leaving developing nations behind, creating digital trade inequalities.
6.5 Political Resistance
The US, benefiting from dollar dominance, may resist widespread CBDC adoption in trade settlement. Sanctions, regulations, and political pressure could slow CBDC globalization.
Critical Perspectives
While CBDCs promise efficiency and inclusivity, critics warn that:
They may fragment global finance if each nation builds incompatible systems.
CBDCs could be used as tools of geopolitical influence, where powerful economies push their CBDCs onto weaker partners.
Privacy concerns and state control may reduce adoption in democratic societies.
Thus, the success of CBDCs in world trading systems depends not only on technology but also on trust, governance, and global cooperation.
Conclusion
Central Bank Digital Currencies are no longer theoretical—they are becoming reality. Their integration into world trading systems could redefine how goods, services, and capital move across borders. CBDCs promise faster, cheaper, and more inclusive trade settlements, reducing reliance on intermediaries and potentially reshaping global monetary power.
Yet, the transition is fraught with challenges: interoperability, cybersecurity, political resistance, and the risk of financial fragmentation. The future likely points to a multi-CBDC ecosystem, coordinated by international institutions, where nations balance efficiency with sovereignty.
In essence, CBDCs represent both a technological innovation and a geopolitical tool. Their impact on global trade will depend not just on design and adoption but on how nations choose to cooperate—or compete—within this new digital financial order.
Options SPY To be or not to beSPY is facing resistance and needs stronger momentum to continue its upward move. The next key target is around $662, followed by a potential pullback toward $645. These price movements are likely to carry strong momentum, influenced by the upcoming interest rate decision on Wednesday, the 17th. The idea lasts approximately 25 days.
SPY's Final Wall: The Bearish ThesisRight now, SPY is facing the most significant confluence of resistance trend lines it has seen in years. Think of this as the ultimate ceiling—a multi-layered wall that the bulls have to smash through.
The market's parabolic move has pushed the price to this critical point. But here's the thesis: the combined strength of these converging trend lines is just too much. The buying power is exhausted.
We believe this is a classic rollover setup. Instead of a breakout to new highs, we expect a strong rejection from this level. The price will hit this solid wall of resistance and turn over, leading to a significant pullback.
The current price isn't a simple pause; it's a test of strength that the bulls are likely to fail.
Day Trade/Swing Trade Idea: Short at red arrow and cover at the green arrow
SPY: Expecting Bearish Continuation! Here is Why:
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the SPY pair which is likely to be pushed down by the bears so we will sell!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
SPY Broader Market Structure (SPY 15M):
The broader direction has been bullish since the rally off 655, with price steadily making higher highs and higher lows. A BOS at 659.11 confirmed continuation, but now price is stalling near the 659–660 supply zone. This stalling action hints at a potential CHoCH if intraday lows are broken, which would open the door to deeper retracement.
Supply and Demand Zones:
The supply zone at 659–660 has already shown its strength—price tapped it and struggled, producing rejections and hesitation candles. Demand sits at 656–657, where buyers defended strongly before, and the more significant demand base is around 655, which marked the origin of the breakout. If price returns there, it would be a high-probability spot for buyers to re-engage.
Footprint Analysis (Order Flow):
The footprint inset shows heavy absorption and stacked sell imbalances near 660, with large resting sell orders repeatedly capping price. This confirms that sellers are actively defending supply, preventing buyers from pushing higher. On the buy side, earlier volume clusters around 657 show aggressive buyers stepping in with stacked buy imbalances, which aligns with the demand zone. The imbalance shift suggests that sellers currently control the top of the range, but buyers have pockets of strength lower down.
Price Action in the Marked Region:
Price is probing into supply and showing rejection wicks while the footprint confirms sell absorption overhead. The most likely scenario is a pullback toward 657 demand, where we’ll see if buyers can reload. If demand breaks, price should flush into 655, where prior aggressive buying was seen.
Trade Bias & Outlook:
The short-term trade bias is bearish, expecting a pullback into demand. The key invalidation is a clean breakout and acceptance above 660, which would flip bias bullish and open the path to 662–663.
Momentum & Candle Behavior:
Momentum is weakening for buyers—candles are showing wicks and indecision at resistance, while the footprint highlights trapped buyers and strong sell absorption. A confirming signal would be a bearish engulfing candle paired with stacked sell imbalances, showing sellers pressing control.
SPY Buyers In Panic! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 657.41 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 650.13
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY Elliott Wave Outlook: Wave (3) Nearing TerminationThe short-term Elliott Wave outlook for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) highlights a cycle starting from the August 1 low. This cycle is unfolding as a diagonal and nears completion. The initial wave ((i)) peaked at 647.04 after the August 1 low. A pullback in wave ((ii)) dropped to 634.92, forming a running flat Elliott Wave. From the wave ((i)) high, wave (a) fell to 632.95. Wave (b) then rose to 649.79. Wave (c) declined to 634.92, finishing wave ((ii)) at a higher degree.
The ETF climbed further in wave ((iii)) to 652.21. A pullback in wave ((iv)) reached 643.33. We expect wave ((v)) to push higher, completing wave 5 of (3). After this, a larger degree wave (4) pullback should occur. A final leg, wave (5), will likely follow to end the cycle from the April 2025 low.
In the near term, the pivot at 634.92 must hold. If it does, dips should find support at the 3, 7, or 11 swing levels. This support will pave the way for more upside. Traders can watch these levels closely for confirmation of the ongoing trend. The outlook suggests a structured advance with clear targets ahead.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 PPI Hits: August Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM — critical input for inflation trend into CPI (Thu).
📈 Yields in focus: Bond market watching supply + inflation mix; $TLT/ TVC:TNX extra sensitive.
💬 Fed chatter: Post-Apple event, markets shift back to Fed data dependency into next week’s FOMC.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Aug)
⏰ 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly)
⏰ 10:30 AM — EIA Petroleum Status Report
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PPI #inflation #Fed #bonds #energy #economy
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 12, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 12, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Markets digest 🚩 CPI + ECB shocks — Friday closes the week with sentiment checks.
🚩 Consumer mood in focus: UMich prelim survey drives inflation expectations + spending tone.
📦 Trade & price gauges: Import/export prices fill in the inflation picture post-CPI/PPI.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Import & Export Prices (Aug)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Sept)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #UMich #inflation #Fed #consumer #bonds #economy
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 CPI Day: August Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM — the main macro print of the week.
🚩 ECB Decision: 8:15 AM ET — Europe’s call on rates adds global cross-asset volatility.
📉 Labor + growth mix: Jobless claims alongside CPI sharpen the Fed outlook.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ECB Rate Decision
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (CPI, Aug)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #CPI #ECB #inflation #Fed #jobs #bonds #economy
Impending bearish pushBear: looking at the adx indicator, we are very low on trend strength on the daily and 4h timeframe of AMEX:SPY . There is room for some more upside to possibly test ath around 652. I believe it will go up to test before it has a pullback again but that being said, adx is low, there are many touches of bearish divergence (lower rsi peaks : higher price points), and we have not seen much drastic big candles in a while. Its important to note that rate cuts are ALREADY priced in. We are forward looking ALREADY. I do not think it impossible that we see a pullback around rate decision or sooner. The current immediate 4h and 1h trend is steep (showing possible exhaustion incoming) especially with all the indicators showing momentum consolidating or slowing down - which could be a possible reversal signal. WATCH ath and the immediate reaction in the days coming.
Bull: Fib extension gives upward price points at 653.52 and even up at 659.09. I think its more possible to combine bearish with bullish thesis and say we will hit the 653.52 then drop- we might just bounce after the drop (which may not be very big). We are in a unique environment with policy and an administration that favors the biggest players in our market. It's silly to expect any SIGNIFICANT downside unless something fundamental *global or political happens. I see pullbacks but nothing like April.
simply put, we are going up there's no stopping that the market is A-symmetrical. However, there are points where I can predict high probability exhaustion and reversals in the coming days and week. aka pullback incoming. Watch all time highs and the adx once it starts to curve up.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Small Biz Pulse: NFIB report before the open — insight into hiring & inflation expectations.
🍏 Apple Mega-Cap Event: 1 PM ET — expected iPhone 17 lineup, Apple Watch, AirPods updates. Mega-cap headline risk for NASDAQ:AAPL and $XLK.
📉 Tape Watch: Traders positioning ahead of 🚩 PPI (Wed) and 🚩 CPI (Thu).
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Jul, rev.)
⏰ 🍏 1:00 PM — Apple Product Launch Event
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #AAPL #AppleEvent #NFIB #inflation #tech #MegaCap
SPY Market Preview for Monday, September 8
Price Action & Market Structure
* SPY is trading around 648.4, consolidating inside a rising channel after bouncing from 644 HVL support.
* Momentum has slowed after rejecting near 649–650, but structure is still constructive as long as price holds above 646–645.
* Market bias remains neutral-to-bullish unless 644 breaks.
Key Levels
* Resistance (Upside Caps):
* 649–650 → Immediate resistance zone.
* 651–652 → Strong Call Wall / Gamma resistance.
* 653–655 → Higher extension levels.
* Support (Downside Floors):
* 646.0 HVL → Key balance level.
* 645.0–644.0 → Strong support cluster.
* 643.0–640.0 → Put Walls / deeper cushion.
Options Sentiment (GEX & IV)
* GEX: Bearish skew, with Puts 117.6% dominating positioning.
* IVR: 11.6, relatively low → options market not expecting extreme moves.
* Gamma Walls:
* 652–653 = Strong Call resistance.
* 646–644 = Strong support zone.
Indicators
* MACD (15m): Rolling bearish after early strength, showing momentum fading.
* Stoch RSI: Resetting lower, oversold zone nearing, could support bounce if 646 holds.
Scenarios for Today
Bullish Case (if 646–645 holds):
* Defend 646–645 support, push through 649–650.
* Targets: 651–652 → 653–655.
Bearish Case (if 646 fails):
* Breakdown under 646–645, move into 644 HVL.
* If 644 breaks → accelerated downside toward 643–640.
Trading Thoughts
* Longs: Buy dips near 646–645, targeting 650–652, stops below 644.
* Shorts: Fade rejection at 650–652, stops above 653.
* Stops:
* Longs → below 644.
* Shorts → above 653.
Summary
SPY sits at a pivotal mid-zone (646–650). Holding this range favors upside continuation into 652–655, but options positioning (Put heavy) warns of downside hedging pressure. A clean break under 646–644 flips momentum bearish into 640.
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Always manage risk properly.
SPY Long-Term Elliott Wave Roadmap📊 SPY Long-Term Elliott Wave Roadmap
SPY continues to respect its long-term bullish channel with clear Elliott Wave structure.
Currently finishing Wave (3) with upside momentum into the 800+ zone.
Expecting a corrective Wave (4) dip toward 680–700.
The final Wave (5) extension projects into the 900+ zone, aligning with major Fibonacci levels.
This roadmap suggests:
✅ Structural bias remains bullish
⚠️ Volatility spikes likely during Wave (4) retracement
⏳ Timeline projects into 2026–2027 for cycle completion
Markets don’t move in straight lines—this is about the macro roadmap.
What’s your take—does SPY see 900+ before the next secular reset?
#SPY #SP500 #ElliottWave #TradingView #Markets