TSE:CAS Cascades Inc — Swing Trade==============================================
TSE:CAS — Swing Trade Plan Analysis
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**1. Overview**
* **Price:** 12.27
* **Trend Filter:** Above 200 SMA (Strong long-term bullish trend.)
* **Best Setup Type:** This data presents a **Mean Reversion / Pullback Buy in a Strong Uptrend** setup. The stock is in a confirmed bullish trend across multiple timeframes (Price > EMA20 > EMA50 > SMA200), yet has pulled back to its 2-day low, showing extreme oversold conditions on the short-term RSI(2). This suggests a high probability of a bounce continuing the broader uptrend.
**2. Trend Analysis**
* **EMA/SMA Relationship:** Price (12.27) is trading above all key moving averages (EMA20: 11.87, EMA50: 10.99, SMA200: 9.77). Furthermore, the shorter-term EMAs are above the longer-term MAs, indicating a healthy and robust uptrend across short, intermediate, and long timeframes.
* **Distance from EMA20:** At 3.35% above EMA20, the price is slightly extended but indicates strong bullish momentum. The current pullback to the 2-day low might be seen as a retest or a short-term consolidation before moving higher.
**3. Mean Reversion**
* **RSI(2):** An RSI(2) of 7.74 is *extremely* oversold. This is a strong indicator for a short-term mean reversion bounce, especially when coupled with an underlying uptrend.
* **Down-streak:** 0. This implies the current day is either the first down day or the stock is at a low without consecutive down days, supporting the idea of a potential bounce from a fresh low.
* **Price vs 2-Day Low:** 0.00%. The current price is exactly at the 2-day low (12.27). This further reinforces the oversold condition and identifies the current price as a potential support level for a bounce.
**4. Key Levels**
* **Support:**
* Immediate: 12.27 (Current price, 2-Day Low)
* Previous 14-Day High (now likely support due to breakout): 11.90
* Stronger: 14-Day Low at 11.59.
* Dynamic: EMA20 at 11.87, EMA50 at 10.99.
* **Resistance:**
* Immediate: 2-Day High at 12.60.
* **Volatility:**
* ATR(14): 0.70 (Useful for stop loss and target projections)
* ADR(20): 0.32 (Indicates typical daily movement range)
**5. Volume**
* **Volume Today (170.09K)** is currently below the 20-day average (272.74K). This can be a constructive sign on a pullback, suggesting a lack of strong selling conviction.
* **Volume Trend: Volume Rising.** This suggests a general increase in trading activity in recent periods, supporting the overall bullish momentum despite today's current volume being below average.
**6. Market Risk**
* **VIX: 27.66.** This is an elevated VIX level, indicating higher market volatility and increased risk. This suggests a need for caution and reduced position sizing.
**7. Trade Plan**
* **Entry:** 12.27 (As provided and aligns with the 2-day low and oversold conditions for a bounce).
* **Stop:** Using structure, placing a stop just below the 14-Day Low of 11.59. A stop at **11.55** (approximately 1.03x ATR below entry) clears this key structural support.
* **Target 1:** The nearest resistance level, which is the 2-Day High.
* Target 1: **12.60**
* **Target 2:** An extension target, projecting beyond immediate resistance. Considering the strong underlying trend, a move equal to 1x ATR above Target 1.
* Target 2: 12.60 (2-Day High) + 0.70 (ATR) = **13.30**
* **Position Size:** Adjust position size downwards due to the elevated VIX (27.66). Consider reducing by 25-50% from your normal risk allocation.
**8. Invalidation Conditions**
The setup is invalidated if:
* Price closes below the stop loss level of **11.55**.
* Price breaks and holds below the 14-Day Low (11.59), indicating a deeper pullback or trend reversal.
* Significant deterioration in broader market conditions (e.g., VIX spikes further, major indices show extreme weakness).
* Price fails to show any bullish momentum or bounce action within the next trading period.
**9. Risk-to-Reward (R:R)**
* **Entry:** 12.27
* **Stop:** 11.55
* **Risk per share:** 12.27 - 11.55 = **0.72**
* **To Target 1 (12.60):**
* Reward per share: 12.60 - 12.27 = 0.33
* **R:R (to T1): 0.33 / 0.72 = 0.46:1** (This is a low R:R for a full trade; Target 1 serves as an initial hurdle or partial profit-taking level).
* **To Target 2 (13.30):**
* Reward per share: 13.30 - 12.27 = 1.03
* **R:R (to T2): 1.03 / 0.72 = 1.43:1** (This provides a more acceptable risk-to-reward ratio for a swing trade, assuming the target extension is reached)."
