NVDA - Watch the show, until the Sh** hits the FanThe expected โend of hypeโ around Nvidia stems from its current inability to forecast H20 chip sales to China, forced production halts, and growing political frictionโdespite its strong financial performance elsewhere.
The tension between U.S. export policy and Chinaโs technological self-reliance is creating real operational and strategic obstacles for Nvidia.
In this weekly chart we still have an upward projection.
Nonetheless do we all know what a Game NVDA is playing by selling to its one companies.
The air is thin, very thin up there.
And after the Earnings Report we all know how the books are pimped.
A breach of the CIB line would make me go "hmmm....", and starting to look for a short.
Until then, just relax and watch the show.
NVDAN trade ideas
NVDA is Near it's TopHello I am the Cafe Trader.
Today weโre looking at NVDA.
This is the first time Iโve shared a Fibonacci study with you.
The way Iโve mapped it is simple โ start from the beginning of the bull run, and anchor it to the 61.8% retracement of the pullback. From this we can calculate where tops are typically found. (I stumbled upon this method trading with another trader who only used Fib's. I pointed this out to him, and we both got quiet...)
As of now, NVDA Is nearing the top of a channel, and close to the top of our FIB Extension. This is where rallies tend to stall, and the reaction here will determine if this becomes a temporary pause or a full reversal (unlikely).
Red Scenario
If we get rejection in this zone, NVDA could pull back into the demand area around 164โ170. Thatโs the level where Iโd expect buyers to step back in.
Longer term, I see NVDA as still bullish, but needing to cool down in the short term. Adding at 164 can be an aggressive way to continue to stack your long term.
Thanks for reading, as always Happy Trading!
@thecafetrader
I believe NVDIA will...I think NVIDIA is in a consolidation phase and we may see a pull back into the liquidity zone before its next run and I believe that this is a buying opportunity, to see let profits run. According to the Fibonacci retracement tool that we are using it was going to have a pullback. The way in which it is set up in a way where I am able to tell. It you look at my recent bitcoin publication you would see how it works. It's able to essentially tell you if the asset is going to be bearish or bullish based on its pull backs. Now I am always one for fundamental and I am still experimenting with this strategy. So, I guess we will see.
ALWAYS REMEMBER THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. I PRAY THAT YOU (THE READER) RECIEVE YOUR BLESSING WITH THIS TRADE.
$NVDA big move comingWatching NASDAQ:NVDA close the month with a long legged Doji at the top is leading me to believe that some bigger news will be coming out to drop the stock to the downside. I would expect a nice discount coming for potential longer term entry.
Potentially something like China is rejecting their chips or an international market rejection or lawsuit to come into play.
Nvidia (NVDA) Upcoming Earnings ReportNvidia (NVDA) Upcoming Earnings Report
Tomorrow after hours, Nvidia will release its quarterly report, attracting heightened attention given its position as:
โ the worldโs largest company (market capitalisation of around $4.39 trillion);
โ a leader in the development of AI-related industries;
โ strong stock price performance โ approximately +33% year-to-date, +108% from the yearly low.
Bullish Expectations
Analysts anticipate Nvidia will report revenue of around $46 billion, more than 50% higher than the same period last year.
Investors are counting on confirmation of robust demand for Nvidiaโs chips from tech giants such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, all of which continue to expand capital expenditure on data centres to power AI workloads.
Further support for NVDAโs share price could come from positive news about demand for the new Blackwell chips and the resumption of sales in China following a recent agreement with the US government.
Bearish Concerns
Even strong results may fall short of โsky-highโ optimistic expectations, potentially triggering profit-taking and a decline in Nvidiaโs (NVDA) stock price. The stock trades at a high P/E multiple (price-to-earnings ratio), making it vulnerable to any negative news or even a minor miss against forecasts.
The primary concern is that Nvidiaโs forward guidance might point to a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending growth by its key clients. Any hint of this could negatively affect not only Nvidiaโs shares but also the broader technology sector.
Technical Analysis of Nvidia (NVDA) Chart
NVDAโs share price remains within an upward channel (shown in blue), with the following configuration:
โ until mid-August, the price remained within the upper half of the channel;
โ in August, the price declined towards the lower boundary (point A).
The $170 level appears to be a key support:
โ it is a round psychological level;
โ the low at point A looks like an aggressive test of this level, after which the price reversed upward.
From a bullish perspective:
โ support is provided by the lower boundary of the channel;
โ a long bullish candlestick (2) signals persistent demand.
From a bearish perspective, the $183 level looks like key resistance: NVDAโs share price slowed its advance here in early August, with repeated unsuccessful attempts to break higher.
Given the above, we could assume that the bulls may attempt to push through the $183 resistance on the back of the earnings release, but to do so, Nvidiaโs results and guidance must at least meet the marketโs extremely optimistic expectations.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nvida Earnings Next, Can Cryptos Stabilize? Cryptocurrencies stabilized a bit in the last 24 hours while stocks also rebounded yesterday during the US session, but the dollar is still moving sideways. Maybe there will be a bit of slow day ahead, till NVIDA earnings are released. Data will be announced today, after the US close, when weโll get Nvidia earnings, which should also be important for the crypto space. And if results beat expectationsโor in other words if the market moves higher after hoursโthen cryptos could also do well. Looking at Nvidiaโs wave count, price could be eyeing new highs after a bounce from 170 support, so maybe a minor fourth wave has finished and we could even see a gap higher after earnings, with potential resistance around the 200 round figure.
If earnings disappoint and price gaps lower, I would still see this as a higher-degree corrective wave four retracement, and maybe some opportunities later on to fill the gap. Key support to watch is around 150, the previous high. So even if thereโs some downside, as long as any drop itโs not too deep, I still view this stock as bullish within an unfinished impulse, and whenever Nvidia is ready to print new highs, thatโs when cryptos could also stabilize.
Grega
Nvidia (NVDA) Targets 189+ in Wave 5 CompletionNvidia (NVDA) aims to advance in wave (5), targeting $189 or higher. The rally to $185.22 completed wave (3). A pullback in wave (4) formed a zigzag Elliott Wave pattern. From wave (3), wave A dropped to $170.89. Wave B peaked at $184.48, and wave C fell to $168.01, showing an impulsive structure on the 30-minute chart below.
The stock has since turned upward. It must break above $185.22, the wave (3) high, to confirm no double correction. The rally from wave (4) unfolds as a five-wave impulse, supporting a bullish bias. From the wave (4) low, wave ((i)) reached $173.53. Wave ((ii)) dipped to $171.11. The stock then climbed in wave ((iii)) to $181.91. A brief wave ((iv)) pullback ended at $178.35. Nvidia nears completion of wave ((v)), finalizing wave 1 in a higher degree.
A wave 2 pullback should follow, correcting the cycle from the August 22 low. The stock will likely resume its climb afterward. As long as the $168.01 pivot holds, pullbacks should attract buyers in a 3, 7, or 11 swing, paving the way for further upside. This setup keeps Nvidiaโs bullish momentum intact, provided the key support level remains unbroken.
Nvda... where we standEarnings this week...
Upside move 195-200 if they pump this but any opening near 200 should be faded .. I'm looking towards a 140 test in Sept - Oct.
Weekly is really overbought , I wouldn't chase this up here.. I'm looking for a move similar to what TSM did after blow out earnings which is gap up to weekly trendline and fade
Biggest red flag here is NASDAQ:SMH (Chipsector)
Zoomed out you can see price is rolling over at resistance here
Zoomed in and you can see , Wyckoff distribution
You'll be lucky if SMH gives you one more pop but this sector and the underlying top stocks are headed for a 20-30% correction (Maybe more).. I'd stay away from the longs until Seasonality flips again around late Oct early November
See the link from the NASDAQ:AVGO and NYSE:TSM .. they are already finished. NVDA IS THE FAT LADY SINGING.
Eventually NVDA will retest the bottom of this channel , this move will like come with a break below 90 but first we would have to break back below 140..
So my analysis is, Nvda has room for 190-200 if it beats on earnings, if it goes red and drops below 167 it's a short back to 140's..
Either way, we will see 140
Nvda volume spike at top?Bearish argument:
Volume spike at the top on the daily
No daily reversal seen as of Monday Sept 1st
Daily bearish divergence
Monthly indecision candle
TP: Last week's low
Daily RSI 30
Daily bullish divergence
160 gap
Last year's high
Bullish arguments:
High volume on Friday's dump on QQQ
Need to monitor for QQQ daily reversal
Conclusion: Probable chance of continued dump on NVDA.
Most likely price target is NVDA or when QQQ reaches last week's low as it coincides with a previous high volume spike level.
NVDA - Critical Point right now! Back to 150 OR we make new high๐ NVDA โ Multi-Timeframe Outlook
๐ Monthly (1M)
Strong bullish structure with clear Elliott Wave progression (1)-(3) unfolding.
Current candle shows retracement after a parabolic push, but higher timeframe structure remains intact.
Target level stands at 200 USD, aligning with Wave (3) completion zone.
๐ฐ Weekly (1W)
NVDA completed Wave (3) near 184, now pulling back into a local support zone ~160 โ 165.
Structure suggests a corrective Wave (4) before potential continuation higher.
As long as support holds, expectation remains for a Wave (5) push towards 200+.
โฑ Daily (1D)
Price coiling inside a corrective a-b-c structure under trendline resistance.
Demand/support zone ~170 โ 172 is acting as the base.
Break above 184 resistance confirms bullish continuation, while loss of support opens risk towards 152 (deeper retrace).
โณ 8H
Clear retracement into demand after Wave (3) high.
Price holding trendline support + demand confluence.
If buyers step in, expect a rally into Wave (5) targeting 190 โ 200.
Breakdown of demand would shift momentum bearish short-term.
๐ฏ Trade Plan
Bias: Bullish continuation (Wave 5 setup)
Entry Zone: 170 โ 175 (demand/support)
Targets: 184 (short-term), 200 (medium-term)
Invalidation: Break & close below 160 support
Nvidia Earnings Preview: The Guidance GauntletNvidia reports after the bell on Wednesday, and once again the market is treating it less like an earnings call and more like a policy event. At a $4.4 trillion valuation and with eight straight beat-and-raise quarters behind it, expectations are sky high. The numbers themselves are unlikely to surprise. What really matters is how management handles guidance on China, Blackwell shipments, and the durability of AI demand.
Numbers Matter, Guidance Matters More
Consensus sits around $48 billion in revenue and $1.02 earnings-per-share (EPS), implying year-on-year growth above 50%. Those are extraordinary figures for a mega-cap, but the bar has been set by Nvidia itself. The market already expect another blockbuster quarter, which is why the stock has gained nearly 25% this year.
Guidance is where the tension lies. China remains the key swing factor after months of shifting regulation. Licensing restrictions on H20 chips forced Nvidia into a $4.5 billion charge earlier this year, and the new 15% revenue skim on exports has made the picture even messier. Most analysts expect management to keep guidance conservative, excluding China for now while pointing to compliant new products such as the rumoured B30. A lack of clarity here could rattle confidence.
Beyond China, hyperscaler demand is the second focal point. Around 90% of Nvidiaโs sales now come from data centres, leaving the company reliant on just a handful of customers. With Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta collectively spending over $300 billion on capex this year, the opportunity is huge, but even small shifts in timing could dent results. Concentration risk at this scale is something the Street wonโt ignore.
The Blackwell ramp rounds out the story. Nvidia needs to prove that hype has turned into hardware. Investors want detail on system-level shipments, lead times, and throughput for NVL72 racks. If management can show that execution is running smoothly while margins hold steady in the low 70s, belief in Nvidiaโs ability to sustain its dominance will strengthen. If not, even a strong top line could be overshadowed by doubts about delivery.
Range in Focus
Nvidiaโs relentless uptrend has paused in recent weeks, with prices consolidating sideways. This mean reversion has pulled the stock back toward its rising 50-day moving average. The short-term support and resistance levels created by the consolidation are now strategically significant.
A decisive break and close above the range could trigger the next leg higher, giving traders a clean breakout setup. Conversely, an earnings disappointment could see price break lower, with downside targets toward the confluent support zone formed by the 200-day moving average and VWAP anchored to the April lows. The range also offers clear stop placement: in the case of a bullish breakout, stops can be placed back within the range below broken resistance, while a bearish breakdown setup would favour stops just above broken support.
NVDA Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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NVDA โ Decision Week Ahead $200 or $140?NVIDIA (NVDA) has been on an incredible bull run, climbing from $140 to nearly $180+ in just 2โ3 months. Now, with earnings coming this week, the market is at a decision point: Will the AI leader extend its rally toward $200 ๐, or will profit-taking and cautious guidance send it back toward $150 ๐?
๐ข Bullish Scenario
Entry points: 170โ165โ160
Targets: $185 โ $190 โ $200+
Lose $170? Iโll wait patiently for $150โ140 before sizing back in.
๐ด Bearish Scenario โ Pullback to $150โ140
If earnings disappoint or guidance weakens (China restrictions, slowing demand), NVDA could unwind toward prior support.
Entry Points (for long re-entry after correction):
$160
$150
$140
Targets on recovery: $160 โ $175 โ $190
๐ Disclaimer: This post reflects my personal trading plan, not financial advice. Always do your own research and use proper risk management.
Nvidia Is Up 100%+ Since April. What Does Its Chart Say?Perhaps the most important single earnings release of this earnings season is on deck. AI-friendly chipmaker Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA will report earnings this week at a time when many of the artificial-intelligence trade's darlings have come off of their highest valuations. What does NVDA's technical and fundamental analysis say ahead of the report?
Let's take a look:
Nvidia's Fundamental Analysis
What timing! NVDA will unveil fiscal Q2 earnings on Wednesday after the bell in what could be the market's next big thing following AI stocks' recent pullback and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's key Jackson Hole speech.
Nvidia also recently got the go ahead from the US government to resume exports of certain products to China, and its stock has risen more than 100% since hitting an $86.62 52-week intraday low on April 7.
As I write this, analysts expect NVDA to report $1.01 of adjusted earnings per share on about $45.3 billion of revenue.
That would be good for about 53% year-over-year growth from fiscal Q2 2025's $30 billion in revenue, as well as a 48.5% increase from the firm's $0.68 in adjusted EPS in the same period last year.
Now, many investors would view 53% year-over-year sales growth as enormous for most companies, but that would actually represent a deceleration of y/y growth for Nvidia.
That said, the "law of large numbers" argues that the pace at which Nvidia has been increasing year-over-year sales since the surge in AI-based capital-expenditure spending began in earnest is unsustainable.
Still, some on Wall Street expect NVDA to stabilize sales growth in the low 50%-ish range for at least a few quarters.
A number of very highly rated sell-side analysts have also increased their price targets for Nvidia heading into this week's earnings report.
Cantor Fitzgerald's CJ Muse, Joseph Moore of Morgan Stanley, TD Cowen's Joshua Buchalter and John Vinh of KeyBanc have all upped their NVDA target prices in just the past few days. TipRanks rates every one of those four at either four or five stars out of a possible five.
The group increased their price targets from an average of $191.25 to an average of $224 vs. the $179.81 that Nvidia closed at on Monday.
Nvidia's Technical Analysis
Now let's look at NVDA's year-to-date chart as of Aug. 20:
We have a very complex chart to take in here.
Readers will first note that a "cup-with-handle" pattern (the purple curving line at the chart's center) kicked off Nvidia's April-into-August rally.
However, the stock's trend -- illustrated here by a Raff Regression model marked with orange shading -- has been broken to the downside as Nvidia approaches earnings.
NVDA also appears to have tested the swing crowd at the stock's 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a green line) and lost that fight.
Next up would be the stock's 50-day Simple Moving Average, or "SMA," denoted by the blue line above. It will be very interesting to see if institutional money defends the stock at that level.
Keep in mind that key Fibonacci retracement levels also exist at roughly $162 (23.6% retracement) and $147 (38.2% retracement), as denoted by the gray shaded area above.
The stock's 50-day SMA is the downside pivot that could pave the way to the stock's even more important 200-day SMA (the red line above at $137.40).
Meanwhile, Nvidia's upside pivot would be the stock's recent high near $184. A retake of that level in response to a well-received earnings report could make the above analysts' new target prices suddenly seem very realistic.
As for the other technical indicators in the above chart, they're not looking very pretty.
Nvidia's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) is sinking like a rock and is trying to hold at a neutral reading.
And check out the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom).
The histogram of the 9-day EMA (marked with blue bars) is suddenly deeply negative. That's usually a short-term bearish signal.
The 12-day EMA (the black line) has also crossed below the 26-day EMA (the gold line). That's also typically a negative signal -- but with both lines still in positive territory, it's not quite as foreboding.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen โSargeโ Guilfoyle was long NVDA at the time of writing this column.)
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Past Resistance = Future Support: SPX500 and Others UpdateIt is August 21, 2025. I have entitled this video, Past Resistance = Future Support. As I purchased many stocks from the yearly lows of 2025, I anticipate, from a probabilistic perspective, that this new retracement will not last, but alas! It shall be a 3% to 5% pullback.
I investigate, from a technical perspective, the chart built on the principles and experience I have gained over the years of watching the markets: from the smallest (general) timeframes to the biggest.
Stocks have been pent up for months, coiling, building up weekly pressure. It is time to grow. Time to invest. Time to be patient over the course of one or two quarters.
Expectation:
A Halloween or Thanksgiving rally. Targets will be hit by December 2025 to January 2026.
$NVDA | The Next Big Leg?NVIDIA has been a textbook case of Smart Money structure this cycle.
โ
Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed
โ
Trendline + MA confluence support at ~$177
โ
Strong premium zone rejection near $195
โ
Fibonacci extension eyeing $231.80
๐ Levels to Watch:
$177 = Key support (trendline + MA)
$195 = Resistance zone (premium supply)
$231 = Next target if bullish momentum continues
๐ก Game Plan:
Above $177 = Long bias toward $195 โ $231
Break below $177 = Retrace toward $153 equilibrium
โก๏ธ Tech + AI flows remain strong; NVDA could be gearing up for another explosive move.
๐ข Question to the community:
๐ Do you think NASDAQ:NVDA pushes through $195 straight to $231, or do we retest $153 first?
#NVDA #TradingView #Stocks #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #AI #Bullish
NVDA Earnings Play | \$190Cโ Donโt Miss Out
# ๐ NVDA Earnings Play | \$190C @ 2.49 | 200โ400% Target ๐ฏ
### ๐ Quick Take (TL;DR)
* **Bias:** Moderate-Bullish (78% confidence).
* **Rationale:** Fundamentals ๐ฅ + Options flow skewed bullish ๐ + Technicals constructive.
* **Main Risk:** China export \~\$8B headwind in guidance.
---
### ๐ฏ Trade Idea
* **Buy** NVDA **2025-08-29 \$190 Call**
* ๐ Entry: \$2.49 (ask) โ enter **pre-earnings close** (Aug 26 AMC).
* ๐ Stop: \$1.25 (โ50%).
* ๐ฏ Targets:
* +200% โ \$7.47
* +300% โ \$9.96
* โณ Exit Rule: If neither stop/target hit, **close within 2h post-earnings open**.
* โ๏ธ Risk: \$249 per contract (max loss).
---
### ๐ Why This Setup?
**Fundamentals (9/10)**
* Revenue growth: +69% TTM ๐
* Margins elite (gross 70%, net 52%) ๐ฐ
* Beat history: 8/8 last quarters โ
* Balance sheet strong (cash \~\$54B).
**Options Flow (8/10)**
* Implied move ~~5.9% (~~\$10.5).
* Call OI heavy @ \$185โ\$200 (gamma cluster).
* Liquidity excellent at \$190 strike (OI >64k).
**Technicals (8/10)**
* Price \$179.83, holding above 20/50/200 MAs.
* RSI neutral (53).
* Resistance: \$184.5 / \$190 / \$200.
* Coiling under highs ๐.
**Macro (6/10)**
* AI/data center demand = secular tailwind.
* China ban risk headline.
* VIX \~15 โ complacency = bigger gap risk.
---
### โ ๏ธ Risks
* Guidance may highlight China hit (\$8B) โ bearish gap.
* IV crush 30โ50% post-print.
* Gap risk may bypass stop.
* Single-leg naked = high variance โ **size small (โค2% portfolio).**
---
### ๐ Execution Checklist
โ
Confirm ask = 2.49 @ close.
โ
Expiry = 2025-08-29 (weekly).
โ
Size โค 2% acct.
โ
Close within 2h post-earnings if no trigger.
---
### ๐ TRADE JSON
```json
{
"instrument": "NVDA",
"direction": "call",
"strike": 190.0,
"expiry": "2025-08-29",
"confidence": 78,
"entry_price": 2.49,
"stop_loss": 1.245,
"profit_target": 7.47,
"size": 1,
"entry_timing": "pre_earnings_close",
"earnings_date": "2025-08-26",
"earnings_time": "AMC",
"expected_move": 5.9,
"iv_rank": 0.75,
"signal_publish_time": "2025-08-26 14:00:37 UTC-04:00"
}
```
---
### ๐ Hashtags
\#NVDA #EarningsPlay #OptionsTrading #CallOptions #StockMarket #AIStocks #Futures #SwingTrade #TradingSignals #RiskReward #OptionsFlow #SP500 #TechStocks
NVDA Daily Chart NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA continues to respect its long-term ascending channel (green zone), with price currently trading at $179.81 (+1.02%). After the recent pullback toward the mid-channel, buyers stepped back in, defending key moving averages and reclaiming short-term momentum.
- Support Levels
$177.25 (recent breakout zone, now first line of support)
$170.96 (gap-fill + mid-channel support)
$167.33 (critical higher-low level)
Below this, $164.65 and $154.14 are major swing supports.
- Resistance Levels:
$180.51 (near-term resistance; previous high rejection area)
Break and hold above $181.91 could open the path toward $188โ$190.
- Momentum (RSI 58.44):
RSI has cooled off from overbought conditions in July.
Currently trending higher but not yet extended, leaving room for continuation.
*Bullish Scenario: A daily close above $181.91 would confirm breakout continuation, targeting $188โ$190 near channel resistance.
*Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold $177.25 risks a pullback toward $171โ167, where trend support and buyers are likely to step in.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. The information shared here is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.