WTI Crude Oil: Is a New Super-Cycle About to Ignite?WTI may be approaching one of its most important turning points in years. The long correction from the 2022 high appears complete, and multiple technical frameworks now align to signal a potential new bullish cycle.
Price remains supported on the 3/1 Gann angle on the monthly chart. A monthly close above $70 opens the first breakout phase, while a break above $130 would confirm a new multi-year advance. Gann cycle timing highlights 2027, 2029, and 2031 as major future peak windows.
The weekly trend remains firm above the $55.15 structural low, reinforcing the April 2025 cycle bottom. Elliott Wave counts show a clean 5-wave rally into 2022, followed by an ABC correction into 2025, which strongly suggests the market has reset.
If momentum builds, WTI could target new all-time highs, with potential to stretch toward the $200 region in the next major cycle.
Vital Direction sees oil entering a phase where long-term opportunity may outweigh risk, with breakout levels clearly defined.
Trade ideas
The Imminent U.S.โIran Crisis: A Real-Time Analytical AssessmentDate of Analysis: Friday, November 7, 2025
Overview
The following is a condensed version of a dynamic strategic discussion between an intelligent user and an AI assistant. The analysis aimed to decode the hidden layers of a potentially imminent military crisis in the Middle East through real-time observation of geopolitical developments.
Introduction: Initial Hypothesis and the Major Shift
The analysis initially rested on the assumption that following the โ12-Day Warโ (June 2025), the region was in a fragile ceasefire. The central question was when the โsecond roundโ of conflict might begin. It was correctly identified that Israelโs main constraint was a shortage of defensive missiles.
Turning Point:
Assuming four months had passed since the first war, it was concluded that the logistical bottleneck (missile defense shortage) had likely been resolved. This invalidated earlier timelines predicting renewed conflict by December and instead shifted the danger window to Novemberโthe current month.
Part I: The Strategic Deception (Iraq and Venezuela as Cover)
Attention then turned to a wave of simultaneous โcrisis signalsโ: rising talk of โa U.S. conflict with Venezuelaโ and โU.S. warnings to Iraq.โ
Assessment:
These were identified as elements of a classic deception operation, intended to divert the attention of the media, diplomats, and, most importantly, Iranโs intelligence and defense systems away from the real target. This served as a perfect cover for preparing a strike on Iran.
Part II: Breakdown of the Deception and Loss of Surprise
Key Insight (Userโs Observation):
The user correctly noted that this deception had failed. With โwar with Iranโ trending again in global media and official warnings escalating, Iran was no longer complacentโit had entered maximum alert.
This fundamentally changed the dynamics. The element of surprise, the attackerโs greatest asset, was now entirely lost.
Part III: The โForced Handโ Scenario
When surprise evaporates, what can the attacker (the U.S. and Israel) do next?
Analysis:
The attacker is now trapped in a strategic stalemate:
Cost of Attrition: Maintaining full-scale military readiness for both sides is expensive, stressful, and unsustainable.
Risk of Delay: Every passing hour allows Iran to disperse and conceal its strategic assets (missiles, drones), making target acquisition harder.
Point of No Return: The use of Venezuela and Iraq as covers was the equivalent of cocking a rifleโany retreat now would amount to a catastrophic strategic humiliation for the U.S.
Time-Based Conclusion:
Since the deception failed and surprise is gone, the attacker is effectively compelled to act. They must launch the attack before their forces degrade further and before Iran becomes even more fortified.
New Urgent Window: Within 24 to 72 hours (this very weekend).
Part IV: The Hidden Economics of War โ Why โCrisisโ Becomes a โSolutionโ
In the final stage, the focus shifted from โwhenโ to โwhyโ, exploring the economic motives driving the potential escalation. The analysis suggested that this war could serve as a planned economic reset to address U.S. domestic challenges.
Global Economic Shock:
The immediate aftermath of an attack would be a spike in oil prices (estimated to surpass $150 per barrel within 24 hours) due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliationโtriggering global stagflation.
Dollar Strength (Flight to Safety):
During such turmoil, global investors would flee risky assets (like crypto, which had already pre-priced a downturn) and rush into U.S. dollars, causing the DXY index to surge.
Domestic Political and Economic Diversion (Wag the Dog Effect):
This crisis would allow the U.S. government to:
Deflect attention from domestic debt and weak economic indicators (e.g., PMI and recession risks).
Reignite the military-industrial complex, boosting GDP through massive arms sales to regional allies and internal consumption.
Justify inflation by attributing it to โgeopolitical instability and rising oil pricesโ rather than past monetary policies.
USOIL โ Bearish SetupOn the daily timeframe, USOIL is in a clear downtrend.
On the 4H timeframe, a bearish pattern has formed after breaking the previous low, followed by a corrective move up to the Fibonacci golden zone.
Bearish candles appeared in that area, indicating a possible continuation of the downtrend toward the downside targets.
Targets are shown on the chart โ based on Fibonacci extension levels and a double top pattern.
Do you agree with this bearish setup?
wti 4h๐น Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The marketโs reaction to these zones โ whether a breakout or rejection โ will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
โ ๏ธ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
โ
Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
WTI USOIL CRITICAL CONFLUENCE ZONES# ๐ข๏ธ SPOTCRUDE (WTI CRUDE OIL) COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ๐ฏ
## Week of November 10-14, 2025 | Intraday & Swing Trade Mastery
Close Price: 59.989 USD/barrel | Entry Point: November 8, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4 ๐
## ๐ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - MULTI-TIMEFRAME PERSPECTIVE
WTI Crude Oil (SPOTCRUDE) is trading at a critical technical inflection point with exceptional multi-timeframe alignment signaling imminent directional breakout. Elliott Wave analysis reveals completion of corrective cycles, positioning for next impulse leg targeting 62.50-65.00 extension zone with powerful momentum. Bollinger Bands display classic compression squeeze pattern โvolatility condensation preceding directional expansion. RSI across all timeframes maintains neutral-bullish bias (52-68 range)โoptimal momentum positioning without extreme overbought conditions. Volume clustering at 59.50-60.50 represents significant institutional accumulation foundation. Wyckoff spring tests near 58.50-59.00 provide aggressive entry triggers. Harmonic pattern convergence at 61.00-62.00 resistance signals breakout confirmation with measured move targets extending to 65.00+. OPEC+ policy expectations + geopolitical tensions support directional clarity emerging this week.
## ๐ TIMEFRAME-BY-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
### 5-MINUTE (Scalping Precision) โก
Candlestick Formation: Japanese candles reveal micro-consolidation with breakout attempts at support zones. Evening Star rejection formations detected at 61.50-62.00 intraday resistance creating reversal opportunities.
Elliott Wave 5M: Sub-wave completion indicates Wave 4 micro-consolidation finalizing. Wave 5 breakout anticipated above 60.20-60.50 with targets 61.50-62.00 (measured move).
Bollinger Bands: Upper compression modeโmiddle band at 59.95 acts as pivot point. Lower band rejection (59.20-59.50) creates scalp-long setups with excellent risk/reward.
RSI (14) Analysis: RSI oscillating 48-66 rangeโneutral territory with minor divergences forming. Bullish divergence at 59.30 support signals buyer engagement; caution on 72+ resistance.
Micro Support/Resistance: 59.20 (micro-support) | 59.70 (POC cluster) | 60.20 (pivot) | 61.20 (intraday resistance) | 61.80 (scalp target)
Volume Signature: Volume concentrated 59.70-60.30 zoneโinstitutional marker. Breakout volume >50% above average required above 61.20 for sustained move above 62.00.
VWAP Alignment: Price oscillating around session VWAP at 59.80โeach touch generates scalp opportunity. Upper VWAP band at 61.50; lower support at 59.20.
### 15-MINUTE (Quick Swing Gateway) ๐ข
Candlestick Patterns: Engulfing bars forming at support zonesโbullish engulfing at 59.50 zone confirms reversal attempts. Three-candle patterns (flag continuation) with 50-90 cents breakout potential.
Harmonic Pattern Recognition: Gartley Pattern potential completion near 59.40-59.80 PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). Exceptional risk-reward at 1:3.6 for harmonic traders. Butterfly variant also forming.
Wyckoff Accumulation Phase: Classic accumulation evidentโsmall barometer move (SBM) nearing completion. Spring test anticipated 58.50-58.90 zone; markup phase targets 62.00-63.50.
Bollinger Bands (15M): Band squeeze intensifyingโhistorical volatility expansion suggests 70-110 cents moves follow. Upper band resistance at 62.00; lower band support at 58.90.
Volume Profile (15M): Point of Control (POC) at 59.85โprime concentration zone. Volume surge >55% required confirming breakout above 61.50. Imbalances favor upside significantly.
Ichimoku Cloud (15M): Price consolidating below cloud edgeโTenkan-sen at 61.50 = resistance pivot. Kijun-sen (61.00) = critical secondary support. Cloud support 59.50-60.20.
EMA Structure: EMA 9 (60.20) above EMA 21 (59.80)โbullish alignment confirmed. Price above both = intraday strength maintained.
### 30-MINUTE (Intraday Swing Axis) ๐
Pattern Formation: Symmetrical Triangle pattern consolidating with apex near 61.50. Ascending triangle variant shows bullish biasโbreakout above 61.20 targets 62.50-63.50 extension.
Dow Theory Application: Confirming higher highs/higher lows structure. Secondary trend bullish; pullbacks to EMA 20 (60.10) = optimal swing entry zones.
RSI Divergence Setup: Positive RSI divergence confirmedโprice making lower lows (59.00) while RSI forms higher lows (38 level). Classic reversal setup targeting 61.50 minimum.
Exponential Moving Average: EMA 9 (60.30) = core support pivot. EMA 21 (59.80) = secondary support. EMA 50 (58.50) = structural hold level. Bullish ribbon alignment intact.
Support Architecture: 58.50 (EMA 50/structural) | 59.20 (demand zone) | 59.80 (volume cluster) | 60.20 (EMA 9 dynamic)
Resistance Architecture: 61.20 (triangle formation) | 61.80 (measured move target) | 62.50 (weekly resistance) | 63.50 (extension)
Volume Analysis (30M): Increasing volume on recent barsโaccumulation signature strong. Buy volume exceeding sell volume confirms institutional interest significantly.
### 1-HOUR (Core Swing Trade Engine) ๐ฏ
Elliott Wave Structure: Major wave analysis suggests Wave 3 completion near 62.50. Current Wave 4 correction targets 60.50-61.00 support zone. Wave 5 impulse anticipatedโtarget: 63.50-65.00.
Pennant Formation: Classic Bullish Pennant pattern formingโbreakout confirmation above 61.50 validates pattern. Pole height measured move = 63.50+ realistic target.
Bollinger Bands (1H): Upper band at 62.50 = squeeze breakout target. Middle band (61.50) = bullish support zone. Lower band rejection (58.50) creates swing longs with excellent R/R.
VWAP Daily: Oil trading above daily VWAP at 59.50โbullish gradient confirmed. Each hourly candle close above VWAP strengthens continuation probability.
Volume Profile Hotspot: Heavily traded at 59.70-60.30 (accumulation zone) and 61.50-62.00 (resistance cluster). Imbalances above 62.50 suggest vacuum-fill potential.
Ichimoku Cloud Alignment: Price above Senkou Span A (61.50) & Span B (61.00)โcloud thickness indicates strong support. Chikou Span above candles = bullish confirmation. Cloud color: BULLISH GREEN.
Gann Theory Application: 45-degree angle from swing low (57.50) establishes rally trajectory. Resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci extension (61.80) precedes aggressive breakout phase.
Support Tiers 1H: 58.50 (structural hold) | 59.20 (EMA support) | 59.80 (Kijun-sen) | 60.30 (accumulation zone)
Resistance Tiers 1H: 61.50 (breakout trigger) | 62.00 (extension) | 62.50 (major level) | 63.50 (impulse target)
### 4-HOUR (Swing Trade Thesis Foundation) ๐ผ
Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern: Potential IH&S formation completingโleft shoulder (58.20), head (57.80), right shoulder completing (58.50-59.00). Neckline breakout at 61.50 targets 63.00-64.00 extension.
Wyckoff Accumulation Deep Dive: Institutional buying signature evidentโSBM (small barometer move) completion imminent. Spring test to 58.20-58.60 anticipated; subsequent markup phase targets 63.50-64.50.
RSI 4H Analysis: RSI at 56-70 rangeโbullish bias maintained. Room for upside extension without extreme overbought. RSI above 74 targets 63.50+; below 34 = defensive posture required.
Cup & Handle Formation: Potential bullish Cup pattern visible on 4Hโhandle stabilization near 60.20-61.00. Breakout above handle (61.80) targets cup depth extension = 63.50-64.00.
EMA Ribbon Structure: EMA 8 (60.80), EMA 13 (60.50), EMA 21 (59.80), EMA 50 (58.50), EMA 200 (56.00)โBULLISH ALIGNMENT PERFECT. Compression/expansion cycles identify momentum phases.
Support Tiers 4H: 58.20 (structural support) | 58.50 (accumulation) | 59.50 (pivot) | 60.30 (demand cluster)
Resistance Tiers 4H: 61.50 (key breakout) | 62.00 (extension) | 62.50 (major target) | 63.50 (weekly projection)
Volume Signature 4H: Accumulation volume bars > distribution barsโbullish bias maintained. Volume nodes clustering at 59.70-60.30 indicate strong institutional support zone.
### DAILY CHART (Macro Swing Thesis) ๐
Elliott Wave Macro: We're potentially in Wave 3 of larger cycleโaggressive expansion still possible. Wave structure supports break of 62.50 targeting 64.50-66.00 daily close objectives.
Double Bottom Recognition: Historical Double Bottom pattern near 57.00-58.00 supportโconfirmed breakthrough above 61.50 neckline triggered. Second target near 63.00-64.00.
Bollinger Bands Daily: Upper band at 63.50 = realistic daily target zone. Mean (61.50) = healthy pullback support. Band slope indicates volatility expansionโexpect 200-350 cents daily ranges.
Volume Profile Daily: Strong buying volume bar at 58.50-60.00 zoneโinstitutional accumulation marker established. Selling volume decreasingโdemand controls trend absolutely.
Ichimoku Cloud Daily: Cloud thickness growingโbullish trend strengthening substantially. Cloud support around 60.00-61.50 zone. Kumo breakout anticipatedโtargets cloud top at 62.50-63.50.
Harmonic Analysis Deep: Butterfly Pattern potential completionโPRZ at 61.50-62.00 suggests reversal zone OR breakout confirmation. Confluence amplifies probability of extension.
Gann Angles & Fibonacci: 50% retracement (59.50) + 61.8% extension (62.50) = key reversal zones. Gann fan angles suggest 62.00-63.00 as structural resistance before continuation.
Key Daily Support: 57.80 (psychological/structural) | 58.50 (accumulation zone) | 59.50 (demand level) | 60.20 (midpoint)
Key Daily Resistance: 61.50 (breakout trigger) | 62.00 (extension) | 62.50 (measured move) | 64.00 (weekly target)
Trend Confirmation: Higher highs & higher lows maintainedโuptrend intact. Daily close above 62.50 = strong continuation signal targeting 65.00+ next level.
## ๐ช TRADING SETUP PLAYBOOK - NOV 10-14
### BULLISH SCENARIO (Probability: 79%) โ
Trigger: 4H candle close above 61.80 + volume surge (>50% above average) + RSI above 64
Entry Zone: 61.00-61.50 (with breakout confirmation signal)
Target 1: 62.00 (TP1) | Target 2: 62.50 (TP2) | Target 3: 63.50 (TP3) | Target 4: 64.50 (TP4)
Stop Loss: 59.70 (below EMA/structural support)
Risk/Reward: 1:3.2 (excellent asymmetric setup)
Trade Duration: 18-72 hours (prime swing window)
### BEARISH SCENARIO (Probability: 21%) โ ๏ธ
Trigger: Daily close below 60.20 + volume increase + RSI divergence failure
Entry Zone: 61.80-62.50 (short setup)
Target 1: 61.50 (TP1) | Target 2: 61.00 (TP2) | Target 3: 60.20 (TP3)
Stop Loss: 63.50 (above resistance)
Risk/Reward: 1:1.6 (acceptable but lower probability)
Trade Duration: Watch for trend reversal confirmation first
## โ ๏ธ VOLATILITY & OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD CONDITIONS
Current Volatility Status: Moderate compression โ Expect significant expansion imminent
5M/15M RSI: 48-66 range (neutral)โroom for 30-60 cents movements | Scalp target zones
30M/1H RSI: 52-70 range (bullish bias, optimal zone)โsweet spot for swing entries
4H RSI: 56-72 rangeโapproaching caution zone but room to extend | Safe for core swings
Daily RSI: 60-74 range (approaching extremes)โbe defensive if daily RSI>76 | Take profits aggressively
Overbought Recognition Points:
RSI daily >75 combined with upper Bollinger Band rejection = immediate profit-taking
Ichimoku cloud top penetration fails (bearish candle rejection) = trend exhaustion signal
Volume declining on breakout attempt = false breakout warning signal
Harmonic pattern PRZ exact hit without follow-through = reversal likely imminent
Oversold Bounce Setups:
RSI 1H <32 on support touch = high-probability bounce back to 61.50-62.00
Price below EMA 50 (58.50) + RSI <30 = aggressive accumulation zone
Spring test below 58.40 with volume surge = Wyckoff spring reversal trigger
Harmonic pattern PRZ support bounce = measured move extension targets activated
## ๐ฏ ENTRY & EXIT OPTIMIZATION STRATEGY
### OPTIMAL ENTRY TIMING
For Scalpers (5M): RSI bounce from 40-50 zone after Band lower touch = 15-30 cents scalp (1-3 min holds)
For Quick Swings (15M-30M): 15M candle close above 61.20 with 4H alignment = 70-120 cents swing (30 min-2 hour holds)
For Core Swings (1H-4H): 4H pennant breakout above 61.80 on volume = 200-300+ cents target (hold 12-48 hours)
For Position Swings (Daily): Daily close above 62.50 = continuation play targeting 64.00-65.00 (hold 5-7 days)
Best Entry Windows: Asia market open (22:00 UTC), Europe open (8:00 UTC), NY open (14:30 ET)
### EXIT STRATEGIES & PROFIT TAKING
Take Profit Levels: TP1: Fibonacci 38.2% (61.80) | TP2: Harmonic PRZ (62.30) | TP3: Daily Band upper (63.50) | TP4: Weekly target (64.50)
Stop Loss Placement: Always below most recent swing low + 20 cents (strict risk management priority)
Trailing Stops: Activate at TP2โtrail with 30-40 cents buffer for 4H+ trades (lock in profits)
Breakeven Exit: Move stops to entry after 1:1 risk/reward achievedโeliminate emotional trading
Partial Profit Strategy: Close 25% at TP1 | 25% at TP2 | 25% at TP3 | Let 25% run to TP4 (maximize winners)
## ๐ REVERSAL & BREAKOUT RECOGNITION CHECKLIST
### REVERSAL SIGNALS TO MONITOR:
RSI positive divergence (lower price lows, higher RSI lows) = bullish reversal setup high probability
Candlestick engulfing patterns at support/resistance zones = trend reversal confirmation strong signal
Volume profile breakdowns (declining volume on breakout attempts) = false move warning immediate
Ichimoku Cloud rejection (price fails to penetrate cloud layer) = structural resistance confirmed
Harmonic pattern completion at exact PRZ = reversal zone probability increases significantly
Elliott Wave 5th wave failure (truncation) = impulse completion = reversal imminent trigger
Gann angle break through significant angle = trend line break = reversal trigger activated
### BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION RULES:
Close beyond resistance with >50% volume surge above average = confirmed breakout signal strong
RSI crosses above 60 for bullish breakout, below 45 for bearish breakout confirmation
VWAP alignment with directional move = institutional participation confirmation strong
Bollinger Band breakout with band expansion (squeeze release) = volatility expansion confirmed immediate
Multiple timeframe confluence (5M + 15M + 1H + 4H aligned) = highest probability setup attainable
Ichimoku Cloud break (price clears all clouds with bullish candles) = strong continuation signal
Volume imbalance (ask volume > bid volume) = directional sustain likelihood increases significantly
## ๐ก WEEK FORECAST SUMMARY - NOV 10-14
Monday (10th): ๐ Consolidation continuation near 60.00-61.00 zone. Range-bound trading anticipated. Early breakout direction watch crucial. Entry setups favor reversal plays at support zones.
Tuesday-Wednesday (11-12th): ๐ Prime breakout window opens โ61.50 represents key decision point. Expect 150-250 cents daily volatility. Breakout confirmation targets 62.50-63.00 extension. This is the optimal swing trade window all week. OPEC+ headlines watch critical.
Thursday (13th): โ ๏ธ Potential profit-taking pullback after breakout (if triggered). Support retest of 62.00-61.50. Buying opportunity if pullback holds above 60.50.
Friday (14th): ๐ Weekly close pattern formation critical. Extension run anticipated if above 62.50. If above 63.00 = week target 64.00-65.00 achieved. End-of-week positioning for next week.
## ๐ CRITICAL CONFLUENCE ZONES - KEY TARGETS
58.20-58.50: Major support zone (accumulation marker, Wyckoff spring area, structural hold)
59.20-60.00: Secondary support (EMA 9, demand cluster, psychological level, volume POC)
60.20-61.00: Micro-resistance cluster (consolidation squeeze zone, early breakout resistance)
61.50-62.00: KEY BREAKOUT ZONE (triangle apex, harmonic confluence, all timeframe resistance)
62.00-63.00: Primary upside target (Elliott Wave 5, daily Band upper, measured move extension)
63.00-64.00: Secondary extension target (Gann level, macro resistance, wave projection)
64.00-65.00+: Weekly/monthly target (if wave 5 impulse extends beyond base projections)
## ๐ RISK MANAGEMENT RULEBOOK
โ
1) Position Sizing: Never risk >2% of account equity per single trade
โ
2) Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2.5 R/R on every entryโ1:3+ preferred for swing trades
โ
3) Profit Scaling: Close 25-50% at 1:1 ratio, let remainder run to 1:2+ targets
โ
4) Stop Loss Discipline: Place stop IMMEDIATELY on entryโno exceptions (20 cents tight)
โ
5) Breakout Confirmation: Avoid FOMOโwait for candle close confirmation + volume surge always
โ
6) Daily Support Respect: Psychological holds (60.00 | 62.00 | 65.00) matterโtrade confluence not against
โ
7) Time Management: Exit losing trades quickly (max 1:0.5 acceptable for educational losses)
โ
8) Macro Alignment: Always check daily/4H bias before taking 1H or lower trades
## #SPOTCRUDE #WTIOIL #CRUDEOIL #OILTRADING
#TECHNICALANALYSIS #ELLIOTTWAVE #HARMONICPATTERN #BREAKOUTTRADING
#SWINGTRADER #DAYTRADING #INTRADAY #COMMODITIES #TRADINGVIEW
#BOLLINGER BANDS #RSI #ICHIMOKU #VWAP #TRADINGSTRATEGY
#WYCKOFFMETHOD #GANNTHEORY #DOWTHEORY #TECHNICALS #ANALYSIS
#SUPPORTANDRESISTANCE #VOLUMEANALYSIS #OVERBOUGHT #OVERSOLD #REVERSAL
#COMMODITYTRADING #ENERGYTRADING #BREAKOUTSETUP #TRADERSOFTWITTER
#TECHNICALTRADER #CANDLESTICK #PATTERRECOGNITION #CHARTANALYSIS #DAYTRADER
## ๐ BONUS: DAILY PRE-MARKET CHECKLIST
Use this every morning before market open:
โ๏ธ Check daily RSI (should be 60-72 for bullish bias continuation)
โ๏ธ Identify support/resistance zones (59.70 | 60.50 | 61.50 | 63.00)
โ๏ธ Verify 4H chart alignment (pennant/IH&S pattern status update)
โ๏ธ Check Ichimoku cloud position (above/below = trend confirmation signal)
โ๏ธ Review 1H Elliott Wave count (which wave are we trading exactly?)
โ๏ธ Scan volume profile (POC = likely rejection zone area)
โ๏ธ Set entry orders + stop losses BEFORE Asia market open (22:00 UTC)
โ๏ธ Plan 3 Take Profit levels before entering any position
โ๏ธ Monitor OPEC+ news + geopolitical developments + inventory reports
## ๐ COMMODITY TRADING SESSION NOTES
WTI Crude trades 24/5 across all sessions . Highest volatility typically occurs:
Asian Session (22:00-8:00 UTC): Lower volatilityโgood for breakout setups forming
European Session (8:00-16:30 UTC): Prime trading hours โpeak liquidity + volatility combination
NY Session (14:30-21:00 UTC): Secondary volatility surgeโoften confirms European direction
Supply/Demand Drivers: Monitor OPEC+ policy, US inventory data, geopolitical risk, dollar strength
๐ก Disclaimer: This technical analysis is educational only. Always conduct your own due diligence and implement appropriate risk management. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly within your risk tolerance. Use stop losses on every position. Not financial advice.
Analysis Created: November 8, 2025 | Valid Through: November 14, 2025 | Updated Daily
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayShort-term weaknesses have become more prominent, while the stabilizing role of crude oil has intensified.
The fluctuation in renewable energy output and the surge in demand for crude oil replenishmentโ
In November, the world experienced extreme weather: The cold wave in Europe led to a 27% drop in wind power output (wind power generation in Germany and France decreased by 32% year-on-year), the Asian typhoon season delayed the progress of photovoltaic installation (new installations in November decreased by 35% year-on-year), and the power supply gap was forced to rely on crude oil to be filled. The fuel oil generation in the United States increased by 29% year-on-year (reaching a new high since 2024), the sales of diesel generators in Europe increased by 22% month-on-month, and the proportion of "replenishment demand" in short-term crude oil consumption accounted for 18%, verifying the irreplaceability of crude oil in energy security.โ
The cost of biofuels is high, and the substitution effect has significantly weakenedโ
The prices of global palm oil and soybean oil rose by 21%-25% due to drought in Southeast Asia, the production cost of biodiesel exceeded $88 per barrel, far exceeding the current crude oil price. The production of biodiesel in the United States decreased by 15% month-on-month, and the blending ratio of biofuels in Europe dropped from 8% to 6.5%. More importantly, the supply of biofuel raw materials is limited (global vegetable oil inventory decreased by 9%), and it is difficult to expand the scale of substitution with crude oil in the short term, and the share of crude oil in the transportation fuel sector has been consolidated.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy๏ผ59.5-60
tp:60.5-601
sl:59
USOIL SUPPORT, RESISTANCE & TRENDLINE ANALYSISGo "SHORT" IF IT BREAKS 59.63 with 59.32 / 59.01 and 58.70 as the 1st, 2nd & 3rd targets respectively. It should break and sustain each level to reach the above mentioned targets.
Go "LONG" if it breaks 59.63 with 59.94 / 60.01 / 60.69 & 61.41 as the 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th targets respectively. It should break and sustain each level to reach the above mentioned targets.
Note: Check for candle patterns as well for proper confirmation.
WTI OIL 4H Channel Down aiming for a Lower Low.WTI Oil (USOIL) is extending the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) rejection of October 24 and has formed a short-term Channel Down. We are currently on its second Bearish Leg following a new rejection this time on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
With the first Bearish Leg declining by -4.72%, we expect the current one to replicate this drop and target $58.60.
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๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
WTI OIL Is it possible to crash at $30.00?WTI Oil (USOIL) has been declining for 3 straight months (current red 1M candle is the 4th one) since the June 2025 rejection on the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). That has been the last rejection of a series of Lower Highs rejections on the 1W MA100 in the past 2 years.
On the much longer-term scale, this is the aftermath of the March 2022 market Top, made as a direct result of the Ukraine - Russia war. On a 17-year horizon, that was the 2nd Lower High of the multi-year Channel Down that WTI has been trading in since the July 2008 Top of the Housing Crisis.
As you can see, there is a high degree of symmetry on this pattern with Lower Lows in particular (market bottoms) getting formed around every 5-6 years. The use of the Time Cycles can fairly accurately project this. The next one is estimated to be towards the end of 2026, which matches perfectly the projected Bear Cycle bottom on the stock markets.
Based on this model, we may very well see WTI drop to as low as $30.00. A fairly solid bottom buy indicator would be when (if) the 1M RSI breaks below its 30.00 (oversold) barrier.
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WTI Crude capped at 6100 ahead of weekly inventoriesThe WTI Crude continues to display a bearish outlook, in line with the prevailing downward trend. Recent price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially setting up for another move lower if resistance holds.
Key Level: 6100
This zone, previously a consolidation area, now acts as a significant resistance level.
Bearish Scenario (rejection at 6100):
A failed test and rejection at 6100 would likely resume the bearish momentum.
Downside targets include:
5835 โ Initial support
5768 โ Intermediate support
5667 โ Longer-term support level
Bullish Scenario (breakout above 6100):
A confirmed breakout and daily close above 6100 would invalidate the bearish setup.
In that case, potential upside resistance levels are:
6150 โ First resistance
6220 โ Further upside target
Conclusion
WTI Crude remains under bearish pressure, with the 6100 level acting as a key inflection point. As long as price remains below this level, the bias favours further downside. Traders should watch for price confirmation around that level to assess the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Energy Sector Liquidity Purge & Algo Reversal:-WTI Crude WTI Crude 19th Nov 2025: ๐ข๏ธ Energy Sector Liquidity Purge & Algo Reversal
Market Journal: WTI Crude Intraday Vector Analysis
Asset: WTI CASH (Spot) Current Price: 60.530 Time: 11:10 AM UTC+4
Strategic Overview: WTI Crude is currently testing a critical demand zone at 60.530 . Our proprietary liquidity models detect a Wyckoff Spring event on the 15m timeframe, suggesting a potential institutional accumulation phase. This aligns with a Bullish Divergence on the RSI, indicating seller exhaustion and a probable mean reversion to the VWAP baseline.
Technical Confluence & Pattern Recognition
Elliott Wave Dynamics: The market has completed a 5-wave motive down-move. We are currently in the corrective A-B-C phase, with Wave A projected to test immediate resistance. Chart Patterns: A Falling Wedge is maturing on the 1H chart, a classic reversal formation. Intraday price action is carving out an Inverse Head and Shoulders right shoulder. Indicator Matrix:
Bollinger Bands: Price has pierced the Lower Band and is snapping back, signaling an oversold bounce.
Volume Profile: Declining volume on the recent down-leg confirms weakening bearish pressure.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is below the Kumo, but the Chikou Span is approaching price, hinting at a potential breakout attempt.
Actionable Trade Plan (Intraday)
// Key Levels of Interest Resistance_Zone = 61.200 - 61.500 Pivot_Point = 60.800 Support_Level_1 = 60.200 Support_Level_2 = 59.800
๐ข Bullish Scenario (Primary): A confirmed breakout above 60.800 validates the reversal thesis. Entry: 60.850 - 60.900 Stop Loss: 60.400 Take Profit 1: 61.500 (200 EMA) Take Profit 2: 62.100 (Key Supply Zone)
๐ด Bearish Scenario (Alternative): Rejection at the pivot or loss of 60.200 resumes the downtrend. Entry: Below 60.150 Target: 59.500
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading commodities involves significant risk.
#OIL Buy@low Sell@highPast few days I am buying #crudeoil on every drip.
I am expecting the oil could be in a Bull run for the next few months.
#buy@low #sell@high
Simple trading strategy support & resistance
All trading methods will give only 49% or 51% - #money Management is the key
Your money management only decides your profit
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@low #sell@high
Any trade money management is a tool to help you grow your portfolio.
Simple trading strategy support & resistance
All trading methods will give only 49% or 51% - #moneyManagement is the key
Your money management only decides your profit
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USOIL Is Bullish! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 59.384.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 61.007 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USOIL : daily review 17/11/2025Oil prices also slipped after Russiaโs Novorossiysk port quickly resumed operations following a Ukrainian strike, removing a short-lived supply scare. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with notable examples including Iranโs seizure of a tanker and the ongoing US sanctions on Russia; however, rising global production remains the dominant force. Outages and disruptions across refining hubs have pushed margins higher; however, the broader trend suggests a well-supplied market heading into next year.
In addition, many traders donโt expect OPEC+ to cut production next year, even with a potential surplus on the horizon. The group is sticking to its market-share strategy unless demand collapses and prices drop sharply. Saudi Arabia and its partners have revived output despite weak prices, betting that oversupply remains manageable and that China can continue to absorb excess barrels.
On the technical side, the crude oil price found sufficient support around the $58 mark, which is a combination of the lower band of the Bollinger Bands and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, and has since corrected to the upside. Although the moving averages are confirming an overall bearish trend in the market, the recent bullish correction could persist into the upcoming sessions and potentially retest the latest high around $61, if it manages to break above the psychological resistance of the round number at $60. The Stochastic oscillator is in neutral levels, indicating potential for the price to move either way in the short term. However, the overly contracted Bollinger Bands may limit price action in the short term, likely keeping the price within sideways action between $58 and $62 for now.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
USOIL: Consolidation First, Breakout Next After crude oil plummeted last week to a low near 58.1, it rebounded on Friday and closed around 59.5, basically confirming a consolidating trend.
For this week, crude oil is expected to first trade in a low-range consolidation before assessing the potential for a unilateral move. Focus on the 58 level as support below and 62 as resistance above; trade within this range using a "buy low and sell high" strategy.
Go long around the 58.2 level.
Go short around the 61.8 level.
If the price breaks out of this range, then look for a unilateral trend to follow.
Core trading logic:The current crude oil market is in a balanced state of "relatively abundant supply + weak demand + macroeconomic uncertainty + technical fluctuations", with no clear trend direction. Therefore, a mixed strategy of "interval high selling and low buying + breakthrough confirmation for follow-up" is adopted. The focus is on the core range of $58 - $61. Buy at the support level and sell at the resistance level. At the same time, a follow-up position after a trend breakthrough is reserved to balance stability and flexibility.
Crude oil trading strategy
buy๏ผ60-60.5
tp:61-61.5
sl:59.5
wti 4h๐น Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The marketโs reaction to these zones โ whether a breakout or rejection โ will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
โ ๏ธ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
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Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 15-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.






















