Crude oil:short-term longCrude oil continued to rally during the US session, with a series of bullish candles on the chart. Note that short positions are not viable—focus on taking profits to break even on pullbacks. The wide ranging oscillation on the daily chart remains unchanged. The watershed for the small cycle is at 63.5, and the trend watershed is at 65.
Buy 62.5 - 62.8
TP 64 - 64.5
SL 62
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USCRUDEOIL trade ideas
4 Possible Scenarios for USOIL (WTI Crude Oil, H1) I SEP/24/2025Scenario 1: Price Rejects Supply Zone (63.80 – 63.94)
The Supply Zone at 63.80–63.94 has acted as a strong resistance.
If price fails to break above this zone, a short-term pullback is likely.
Nearest target: POC zone at 63.05. If this level is broken, price could move further down to the Liquidity Zone at 62.36.
👉 This is a short-term bearish scenario.
Scenario 2: Price Breaks Supply Zone and Moves Higher
If price breaks out and closes an H1 candle above 63.94, the short-term bullish trend will be confirmed.
The Supply Zone will then flip into a support area.
Next potential target: 64.50 – 65.00.
👉 This is a strong bullish scenario, but confirmation is required.
Scenario 3: Price Pulls Back to POC Zone (63.05) and Bounces
The POC zone (Point of Control) at 63.05 is a key volume balance level.
If price retraces here and strong buying pressure appears, a bounce back toward the Supply Zone (63.80–63.94) is likely.
👉 This is a sideway-accumulation then bullish scenario.
Scenario 4: Price Drops Deep into Demand Zone (61.76)
If strong selling pressure breaks through the Liquidity Zone (62.36), price may fall deeper to the Demand Zone at 61.76.
This is a key demand level where a short-term bottom could form, followed by a strong rebound.
👉 This is a deep bearish then recovery scenario.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Please manage your own risk before making any trading decisions.
Oil analysisThe oil buy trigger we gave yesterday has been activated and already hit its target. After that, we need to wait and see how the price reacts to the channel’s ceiling before making the next decision. However, with this momentum, it looks like it’s heading to break the channel’s ceiling. ✅
USOIL TodayThe recent core support level is around 62,today, the price briefly bottomed out at the 62 support level, but immediately bounced back upwards and failed to achieve a genuine downside breakout. if this level is breached, the price may retrace to the 60-61 range. Resistance levels are concentrated in the 65-66 zone. Based on recent technical data, the momentum indicators on the daily timeframe are showing signs of a weak rebound.
WTI crude oil Wave Analysis – 23 September 2025
- WTI crude oil reversed up from the key support level 61.70
- Likely to rise to resistance level 65.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 61.70 (which has been reversing the price from the start of August) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 61.70 will most likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – if the price closes today near the current levels.
Given the strength of the support level 61.70, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 65.00 (which stopped earlier waves a, 2 and ii).
GENERAL CONTEXTUSOIL remains in a short-term downtrend, capped by the H1 descending trendline.
Price just bounced from Demand zone ~61.85–62.00 (VAL) → showing buy-side reaction.
POC ~63.30 is the key magnet zone.
Supply zone ~63.90–64.00 (VAH) aligns with strong resistance.
📍 TRADING SCENARIOS
🟢 Scenario 1 – BUY at Demand zone (61.85–62.00 / VAL)
🔺 Conditions:
Price retests Demand zone (VAL).
Bullish reversal candles appear (Pin Bar / Engulfing M15–H1).
RSI > 30, bullish divergence confirmed.
🔹 Reason:
VAL often acts as strong support.
Confluence with Demand zone → high probability of bounce.
🎯 TP: 63.30 (POC) → 63.90 (VAH)
🛑 SL: below 61.70
🟡 Scenario 2 – SELL reaction at Supply zone (63.90–64.00 / VAH)
🔺 Conditions:
Price retests Supply zone + VAH.
Strong rejection forms (Bearish Pin Bar / Engulfing).
RSI > 70 or MACD losing momentum.
🔹 Reason:
VAH often works as distribution/profit-taking zone.
Aligns with Supply zone, high chance of pullback.
🎯 TP: 63.30 (POC) → 62.00 (VAL)
🛑 SL: above 64.20
🔴 Scenario 3 – SELL if breakdown below 61.80 (VAL)
🔺 Conditions:
H1 candle closes below 61.80.
Retest of VAL fails from below.
🔹 Reason:
Losing VAL → downtrend continuation.
Price likely seeks lower lows.
🎯 TP: 61.20 → 60.50
🛑 SL: above 62.20
⚠️ Scenario 4 – BUY breakout above 64.00 (VAH)
🔺 Conditions:
H1 candle closes firmly above 64.00.
Pullback holds above 63.90.
🔹 Reason:
Breakout of VAH + Supply zone confirms strong bullish momentum.
Could trigger a deeper rebound.
🎯 TP: 65.20 → 66.00
🛑 SL: below 63.60
📌 SUMMARY
The 61.85–62.00 (VAL/Demand zone) is the best BUY zone.
The 63.90–64.00 (VAH/Supply zone) is a potential SELL zone.
Overall bias remains bearish, but short-term bounce toward POC 63.30 is possible.
Strict risk management is required as crude oil tends to be highly volatile.
Disclaimer: This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
USOIL TodayToday the crude oil yet the key support level of 62 remained unbroken,We still predict that it will maintain an overall upward trend.
Buy 62.25 – 62.45
TP 62.75 - 62.95
SL 62.00
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
US OIL WTI Long
Entry 62.46
SL 61.98
TP 63.20
This is a counter-trend setup, the main structure is still bearish.
A strong bullish candle close above 62.600 would strengthen the bullish case toward to TP2.
If 62.200 fails to hold, expect continuation lower, with next possible demand near 61.500–61.600.
Fundamentally, Oil is currently undervalued against the US Dollar index and US Bond. I will expect some value gain.
Technically:
This is a tactical long setup based on a demand zone bounce with RSI confluence. It’s a short-term play aiming for corrective upside within a broader bearish market. Partial profit-taking at TP1 is recommended, with a chance to extend gains to TP2 if momentum follows through.
USOIL TREND ANALYSISHERE we have USOIL IN 30m TIMEFRAME and ITS in down trend so we have marked all the important areas of this trend. ONCE,the market reaches that marked areas, WE WILL SHIFT TO SMALLER TIMEFRAME AND LOOK FOR TRENDSHIFT AND TAKE TRADE FOR SELL SIDE .
IMPORTANT AREAS
50 PERCENT AREA=(63.22)
75 PERCENT AREA=(63.69)
Crude oil review - DAILY - 22/09/2025Oil prices fell on Friday as concerns about abundant supply and weakening demand outweighed optimism from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut of the year. OPEC is easing its production cuts, Russian exports remain unaffected by sanctions, and the refinery maintenance season is set to reduce demand further.
The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points in last week’s meeting, with hints of more cuts to come, but experts argued that such small moves won’t lift oil markets given weak fundamentals. Energy agencies have all flagged slowing demand, and a surprise 4 million-barrel build in U.S. distillate stockpiles added pressure to prices.
On the technical side, the price of crude oil has declined after finding sufficient resistance on the 50-day moving average and the 61.8% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level. The Stochastic is still at neutral levels while the moving averages are validating the overall bearish trend in the market. The Bollinger bands are sufficiently expanded, showing that there is volatility to support any short-term spikes. In any case, the price area of $62 is still the major technical support area that the price failed to break below in the past 2 months.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
ROADMAP FOR OIL: Volatility Now, a Geopolitical Spark LaterThis isn't an update because the outlook has changed—it's been remarkably stable for months and even couple of years. Instead, this is about connecting the dots as we potentially approach a major inflection point.
Here’s the core idea: major geopolitical events aren't the drivers of crowd sentiment and price action. It's the other way around. Events like OPEC decisions or strikes on Iran happen when social mood has reached a tipping point, pushing politicians to act. These events cause volatility spikes on the chart but don't change the underlying trend; they simply create the corrective waves within it.
The chart is telling us that after the upcoming decline we're anticipating (based on wave count and indicators), a very powerful rally is due. This implies a major geopolitical catalyst, likely in late 2025 or 2026. Crucially, this spike will itself be just a large corrective wave up, setting the stage for the next major leg down in price.
The Technical Setup:
We're inside a complex double zigzag - - correction. The current (X) wave should unfold as either a combination (W)-(X)-(Y) or a flat pattern (A)-(B)-(C). A key tenet is that the trendline connecting the tops of and shouldn't be broken. That line is hard to define right now, which tells me the high for wave isn't in yet. This points to sustained and elevated volatility in the coming months.
The Big Picture (The Supercycle):
COVID likely marked the absolute bottom for energy prices. We are now in a major multi-decade upward supercycle. However, this cycle is so vast that we are still in its very first large wave. The entire corrective phase we're in now began in 2022 and could last until the late 2020s, potentially culminating in a global crisis sparked by conflict, escalating into trade wars, and exacerbated by the financial system vulnerabilities everyone is now preparing for.
Layer on top of that potential US production exhaustion and a post-2030 output decline across India and Asia, and you have a perfect recipe for a powerful oil rally in the future. But that story is for the next decade. For now, fasten your seatbelts for some turbulence.
#Oiltrading #ElliottWave #Socionomics #Macro #Trading #Geopolitics #Energy #Supercycle #Commodities
USOIL: Market of Buyers
Looking at the chart of USOIL right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move up seems to be quite likely.
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wti 4hTrading Perspectives for the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and outlooks.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a significant support/resistance zone near the current asset price. The market’s reaction to or break of this level will determine the future price trend up to the next specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to examine key price levels and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
USOIL: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 62.657 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
USOIL My Opinion! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for USOIL s below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 62.35
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 63.12
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Review the crude oil movement Let’s review the crude oil movement last week. WTI prices declined amid concerns over the U.S. economy and oversupply. Traders are still assessing the Fed’s remarks regarding further interest rate cuts.
In terms of price action, crude oil maintained a volatile downward trend. There was a brief rebound at one point, but the gains were eventually erased, and prices resumed their decline. The downtrend continued through Friday, yet the key support level of 62 remained unbroken. It is expected that crude oil will stage a rebound and go up in the coming week.
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance