USOIL strong down trend entry on consolidation breakdown USOIL Technical Outlook – 4H Timeframe
USOIL continues to show strong downside momentum, with sellers maintaining control. Price is currently respecting the downtrend structure, and a consolidation breakdown below 59,100 is confirming further bearish pressure.
📉 Key Technical Levels:
Immediate Support: 58,300
Next Major Support: 56,400
As always, ensure you are using proper risk management and wait for clear confirmations before entering any position.
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WTI Weekly Forecast (week 50)Bias: Mildly Bearish → Range-Bound
Expected Range: $55.50 – $60.00
Most Likely Zone: $57.00 – $59.00
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1️⃣ Overall Market Viev
→ Bearish forces dominating
Global supply remains abundant: U.S. shale output steady, Brazil & Guyana rising.
OPEC+ cuts are not tight enough to flip sentiment to bullish.
Weak macro data in Europe/China continues to cap demand expectations.
→ No strong geopolitical premium right now
Markets are pricing no major disruption in Russian or Middle Eastern flows.
Without a risk premium, oil trades on fundamentals → which are soft.
→ Technical conditions
WTI still sits inside a descending channel, with repeated failures near $60.
Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) show lower highs → sellers remain in control.
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2️⃣ Weekly Price Outlook
Base Case (60% probability): Mild Bearish Drift
WTI holds below $60, spends most of the week between $57–59.
Momentum gradually pulls price toward $56–57.
Range Case (30% probability): Sideways Trading
No strong catalysts this week → WTI chops inside $57–60.
Bullish Upside Surprise (10% probability)
Only likely if:
Large EIA draw
Major supply outage (pipeline, terminal, Russia/Turkey/Mideast)
OPEC+ signals stricter compliance
Would push WTI to $60.50–62.00.
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3️⃣ Key Levels for the Week
Support
$57.00 → primary support
$55.50 → major weekly floor; break = trend acceleration lower
Resistance
$59.00 → first sell zone
$60.00–60.50 → big resistance; break needed to flip bullish
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4️⃣ Catalysts to Watch This Week
📊 EIA Inventory Report (Midweek)
Bearish if: crude builds +1.5M or more; gasoline/distillate builds
Bullish if: crude draws –3M+ with strong product demand
🌍 Geopolitics
Russian export flows
Middle East shipping/lng/oil terminals
OPEC+ commentary (compliance, voluntary cuts)
📉 Macro Data
USD strength
US PMIs, jobs data
China industrial demand signals
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⭐ Bottom Line
WTI is expected to remain under pressure this week, trading mostly in the $57–59 range with a downside bias toward $56. A breakout above $60 is unlikely unless a major bullish catalyst appears.
USOIL: 08/12/2025 daily analysisOil prices held steady as traders monitored India's increased purchases of Russian crude and Ukraine's stepped-up attacks on Russian energy assets. WTI stayed near $60 after recent gains, while Putin promised uninterrupted fuel shipments to India ahead of US trade talks.
Ukraine’s strikes on energy infrastructure tightened loadings and lifted physical crude prices, but rising global supply from OPEC+ and major producers, such as the US, Brazil, and Guyana, keeps oversupply fears alive. The oversupply of crude oil in 2026 appears to be prevailing, pushing futures toward the low-$60s through 2026. For now, fresh market outlooks from the EIA, IEA, and OPEC are due this week.
On the technical side, the crude oil price corrected to the downside after finding resistance around the $60 mark, which is the psychological resistance of the round number as well as the 38.2% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, it is testing the support of the 50-day simple moving average, while the Stochastic oscillator is moving towards neutral territory. The moving averages are validating the overall ebarish trend while the Bollinger Bands are sufficiently expanded to support any significant move in the short term.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
WTI Crude – Macro Cycle OutlookWTI continues to track a dominant long-term cycle rhythm that has consistently produced major swing highs and lows across the past decade. The current positioning suggests we’re nearing the late stage of a down-cycle, which historically leads to accumulation, volatility compression, and eventual expansion.
The shorter oscillation (blue cycle) has been driving tradable swings roughly every 72 weeks, while the broader composite cycle (purple) points to a larger structural trough forming into the 2025–2026 window. If that timing holds, the coming quarters may represent a transitional regime.
CCI remains depressed but not capitulated, consistent with the “late descending phase” where momentum exhaustion precedes reversal but price can still grind lower.
CYCLE TAKEAWAY:
1. Late in down-cycle
2. Transitional phase likely
3. Potential for major cycle low into 2025–2026
4. Upside expansion historically follows these troughs
As always, cycles provide timing context, not trade signals – confirmation comes from price and momentum turning, not dates on a chart.
Not financial advice – sharing my cycle work for research and discussion.
Oil, Numbers, and Energy Flows: Decoding December’s Symbolic PulThe 3 December 2025 candle closed at 59.10, which from a numerology perspective can be interpreted as 5 + 9 = 14, and 1 + 4 = 5, symbolising volatility and rapid shifts. The decimals — 10 = 1 + 0 = 1 — represent initiation and new beginnings.
From this, we can conclude that 4 December may bring significant volatility. Perhaps developments involving the USA and Venezuela could emerge — just a thought we wanted to share for educational purposes.
Usoil Next Selling Move Analysis Read the DescrpitionUSOIL with technical analysis drawn on it. A green rising channel highlights a previous uptrend, which has been broken downward. Pink horizontal zones mark resistance and support areas. A downward arrow points toward a labeled “Target level,” suggesting a bearish expectation after price breaks below the support zone.
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USOIL: Wait for a pullback to $59 to buy.During Monday’s Asian trading session, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose 1.7%, trading around $59.30 per barrel. Oil prices opened strongly as OPEC+ agreed to halt production increases starting from Q1 2026, providing solid buying support at the open.
On the 1-hour chart, crude oil is showing high-level consolidation, with prices repeatedly oscillating around the moving average system, indicating a short-term neutral, range-bound objective trend.
However, from a subjective trend perspective, the bias remains to the upside. The MACD fast and slow lines have pulled back toward the zero axis and are about to form a bullish crossover, suggesting that bullish momentum is building.
There is a high probability that crude oil will break to new intraday highs today.
Intraday Trading Plan:
Buy near: $59.00
Take Profit 1: $60.00
Take Profit 2: $60.50
Stop-loss: Adjust based on individual risk tolerance
WTI/USD: Bullish Rally to 62.45?CFI:WTI is gearing up for a bullish rally on the 4-hour chart , with price rebounding from a key support zone near cumulative long liquidation levels, setting up a strong entry opportunity if buyers maintain control and push toward resistance amid recent consolidation. Entry from current levels could also be favorable with proper risk management.
Entry zone between 57.5-58.3 for a buy position. Target at 62.45 near resistance.🎯 Set a stop loss at 56.335 , offering a risk-reward ratio greater than 1:2 . 📊 Watch for confirmation with a bullish close above entry and rising volume, capitalizing on oil's volatility.🌟
Fundamentally , WTI crude has fallen to around $58.13 per barrel as of November 21, 2025, amid supply outpacing demand, but recent breakouts above $60.7 signal near-term positivity despite forecasts of further drops to $53.50-$45.00 due to OPEC+ hikes and record US output. 💡
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry Zone (Long): 57.5 – 58.3
🎯 Target (TP1): 62.45
❌ Stop Loss: 56.335
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: Greater than 1:2, offering a clean upside swing with defined invalidation.
What's your take on this setup? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
Hellena | Oil (4H): LONG to the area of the maximum of wave “A”.Colleagues, the past forecast has not been canceled, but I see some changes and therefore feel it is necessary to make a fresh forecast.
Apparently, the corrective wave “B” has extended to the area of 57.930. This is quite close to the low of wave “C” at 56.408 and the price should not update it, otherwise there will be a full-fledged break of the structure.
In connection with the above, I think that the price is already completing the downward movement and I expect the resumption of the upward movement at least to the area of the maximum of wave “A” - 62.990.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Bullish on USOILPrice broke consolidation, and retested marked arear now I'm in the buys back to supply, risk management at play (always) Lets see if this plays out
NB: Documenting my trades and learning in the process, this is not financial advise just another trader making her way to profitability
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bearish Movement After Trap
There is a high probability that Crude Oil will drop
after a false violation of an intraday resistance.
A double top pattern above that and a return
of the price below the underlined structure after
a neckline breakout give a strong signal.
I anticipate a bearish movement to 58.68
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USOIL Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USOIL below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 58.48
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 58.94
Recommended Stop Loss - 58.19
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Oil Market Outlook: Range-Bottom Reaction AheadHello traders,
Today I’m here with an analysis of Crude Oil.
Based on the chart, as you can see, the price is currently sitting on a support level.
Considering the global geopolitical situation and ongoing conflict news, we may see a potential rise in price.
Overall, we are looking at a sideways (range) market, and the price is now at the bottom of this range.
Therefore, our target will be the top of the range.
USOIL Is Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 59.116.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 58.630 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USOIL BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
USOIL pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is obviously rising on the 4H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 58.36 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Heading into key resistance?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which acts as an overlap resitance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 62.24
1st Support: 56.51
1st Resistance: 65.75
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