Crude oil I trade smc, as per analysis price is aiming at $6k and above. Choch has occurred and all that is needed is for price to return to the order block then we buy.
Trade ideas
USOIL : Don't be fooledHello friends
Well, you see that we have a descending channel that has hit the ceiling twice and the ceiling three times.
Well, in the third encounter with the bottom or support, you see that the buyers provided good support for the price and pushed it up and broke our medium-term ceiling. Now, if the breakdown is confirmed, the price will go to the ceiling of the channel and from there, a price correction can be expected.
The specified range is very important for a sell trade. Why?
Because there are many orders here, if the price reaches this area, it will inevitably correct. And there is another reason that we have, and the most important reason is that our trend is down and we should not open a trade against the trend.
This analysis is technically reviewed and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Avoid emotional behavior and observe capital management.
*Trade safely with us*
Usoil Next MoveUsoil Under Selling Pressure We Sell At 62.045 For Tp 52.02
Usoil In Bearish Structure Don't Miss This Opportunity Manage Your Risk Properly
For more updates Stay Tuned
USOIL Price Analysis & Bearish Trade Execution🛢️ Asset: WTI “USOIL” – Energies Market Trade Opportunity Guide (Day/Swing Trade)
📉 Plan: Bearish Plan Confirmed
Momentum is weakening, liquidity pockets are exposed at the lower ranges, and the structure favors downside continuation. Price remains vulnerable to deeper drawdowns as volatility compresses.
🎯 Entry:
ANY PRICE LEVEL ENTRY
(Execute based on your personal confirmation rules, premium/discount zones, or volatility triggers.)
🛡️ Stop Loss (Risk Guide):
This is the Thief SL @ 58.500 🛑
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), kindly adjust your SL based on your own strategy, volatility preference, and personal risk model.
Note: I am not recommending that you use only my SL. You can make money and take money at your own risk.
💰 Target:
Strong support + oversold conditions + liquidity trap identified below, so kindly aim to escape with profits.
🎯 Our Target: 55.500
Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG’s), I am not recommending using only my TP. It is your own choice—you can make money and take money at your own risk.
🌍 Related Pairs to Watch (Correlation Insights)
1️⃣ Brent Crude – “UKOIL”
Often moves in the same direction as WTI due to shared global demand/supply themes.
If UKOIL breaks structure first, USOIL usually follows shortly after.
2️⃣ Natural Gas – “NATGAS”
Not directly correlated but reacts to energy-sector sentiment.
A sharp move in NATGAS can shift commodity-flow risk appetite.
3️⃣ Canadian Dollar – “USD/CAD”
CAD strengthens when oil prices rise and weakens when oil drops.
For a bearish USOIL plan, watch for USD/CAD upward pressure.
4️⃣ S&P 500 Energy Sector – “XLE”
Tracks major oil companies.
Weakness in XLE often signals upcoming pressure on crude.
5️⃣ OPEC Headlines + API/EIA Reports
Sudden supply changes or inventory spikes can trigger fast volatility.
Keep monitoring these events closely during active trades.
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CRUDE OIL Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL taps into a fresh SMC supply pocket after a clean liquidity grab and shifts order flow bearish. The current pullback simply mitigates the breaker before another leg down unfolds toward discounted pricing. Time Frame 4H.
Sell!
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USOIL Trading Idea Key Levels Tested No Fly Zone Defined For the past several weeks USOIL has been compressing around a critical structure level creating a slow tightening range that now sits at the center of a major decision point. Price has repeatedly tested 58.47 to 58.74 which has acted as the battlefield between buyers and sellers. This zone is highlighted in red on the chart the No Fly Zone because any setup taken inside it lacks clear directional advantage. We have been waiting for clean price action outside this zone before committing to either bias.
Bullish Key Levels Upside Scenario
A break and daily close above the upper boundary of the No Fly Zone 58.74 would open the path toward the next key levels
61.55 first major reaction zone previously rejected price with force
67.45 structural target where prior rallies topped out
69.13 full extension bullish target and the top of the measured move
These levels form the broader upside structure we have mapped for weeks. If bulls reclaim 5874 convincingly the momentum window toward 61.55 becomes extremely attractive with higher targets following if energy markets continue stabilizing.
No Fly Zone Indecision Structure
58.47 to 58.74
This is where price has consolidated for weeks. Trading inside this zone means no momentum edge no clear liquidity exit and unreliable follow through. This is the zone where traders get trapped on both sides which is why we intentionally avoided taking new positions until price committed.
Bearish Levels Downside Scenario
If price rejects the No Fly Zone from above and closes below 5847 bearish continuation becomes highly probable. Our next downside structural level is
49.57 major demand zone and the full downside extension of the current structure
The green area on the chart illustrates the asymmetric opportunity on a break beneath 58.47 targeting the deeper liquidity pool around 49.57.
This setup becomes especially compelling because repeated rejections at the red zone show that sellers have been defending this level aggressively.
Trade Summary
Bull Bias Above 58.74 Targets 61.55 then 67.45 then 69.13
Bear Bias Below 58.47 Target 49.57
No Trades Inside 58.47 to 58.74 the No Fly Zone
This framework has allowed us to remain patient while price compresses. Now as USOIL tests the lower boundary again we are watching closely for either a decisive breakdown or a sharp reversal back into bullish structure.
The next daily close should reveal the true direction.
USOIL - Type II Bulish GartleyUSOIL is completing a Bullish Gartley at the 0.786 retracement (56.70–57.30), positioned inside a strong demand zone and supported by RSI divergence + VPVR low-volume rejection.
Expectation:
A bullish reversal targeting mean reversion toward 60.00–61.00.
Entry:
Buy inside 56.70–57.30 (aggressive) or wait for bullish confirmation (conservative).
Stop Loss:
56.20–56.60 below PRZ and demand invalidation.
Targets:
TP1: 59.20–59.60
TP2: 60.80–61.20 (POC magnet)
TP3: 63.00–63.50 (runner)
Rationale:
Gartley completion + structural demand + RSI divergence + VPVR reversion =
strong probability of bullish corrective movement.
CRUDE (USOIL) – (1H) Bullish LCM Structure in PlayPrice has completed a clean Liquidity Cycle Model sequence:
1. Liquidity Sweep
Market swept the major low at 5780, clearing the downside liquidity and tapping a higher-timeframe demand.
2. Reversal Phase
Following the sweep, price reclaimed the 5811–5816 refined demand zone, creating a solid bullish shift.
3. Continuation Setup
The current pullback is respecting the refined OB at 5825 – 5810, forming the basis for continuation.
🔹 BUY SETUP (LCM)
Entry Zone: 5825 – 5815 (White Line)
Intraday Invalidation: Below 5785
hard Invalidation: Below 5760
🎯 TARGETS
TP1: 5945 Mid-range supply flip
TP2: 6025 Imbalance fill + next structural level.
TP3: 6225 – major HTF resistance and full LCM continuation target.
📌 Summary
Price swept the lows, reclaimed structure, and is now positioned for bullish expansion as long as the refined demand at 5815 holds. A break above 5890’should unlock continuation toward 5935 and 6034.
LCM rewards patience, not prediction
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USOIL🎙 Market Update – U.S. Oil
U.S. Oil continues to move under bearish pressure, and in the current outlook, we’re targeting the $56 support level.
This expectation remains valid as long as price stays below the $60 zone.
Stay focused, follow the levels, and manage your risk wisely.
Crude Oil Fails to Pull Away From This Year’s LowsBroad-based weakness in WTI crude has persisted in the short term, and the price has lost more than 3.5% over the past three trading sessions, bringing it increasingly closer to the 2025 lows around 57 dollars per barrel. For now, selling pressure remains firmly in place, partly because OPEC+, the world’s most influential oil-producing group, continues moving toward higher production levels heading into 2026. Additionally, the possibility of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine raises the chance that certain economic sanctions on Russia could be lifted, further increasing the outlook for global supply. As long as expectations of a potential oversupply in 2026 persist, this scenario may continue to exert downward pressure on WTI and act as a key catalyst for sustained selling pressure in the sessions ahead.
Downtrend Remains Firm
For several months, crude oil has been following a consistent downward path, and the current trendline remains strong despite occasional upward corrections that have been insufficient to break it. As a result, this bearish formation remains the most important technical factor to watch. If selling pressure continues to push prices into new lows or keeps them below 60 dollars per barrel, the bearish bias will likely continue to dominate short-term price action.
RSI
At the moment, the RSI line is fluctuating near the neutral 50 level, suggesting a balance between buying and selling impulses in the short term. If this behavior holds, it may give way to a period of price indecision.
MACD
A similar scenario is observed in the MACD, whose histogram remains near the zero line, indicating an equilibrium in short-term moving-average strength. If this pattern continues, it may lead to a period of sustained indecision in WTI over the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
61 dollars: The most relevant resistance level, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A bullish breakout above this area could threaten the broader downtrend and open the door to a stronger bullish bias in WTI.
58 dollars: An intermediate barrier aligned with the downtrend line and the 50-period moving average. Price action that remains near this zone may trigger a short-term sideways range, increasing uncertainty in WTI.
57 dollars: This level corresponds to the 2025 lows and currently acts as the most important support. A break below it could confirm a dominant bearish bias and extend the downtrend into the coming sessions.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
CFD great chartThe US Federal Reserve is expected to cut the policy rate at the last meeting of 2025.
The revised Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chair Powell’s comments will be key as a rate cut is largely priced in.
The US Dollar could stay on the back foot unless the Fed delivers a hawkish surprise.
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting the US central bank to deliver a final 25 bps cut for 2025. While the move is widely priced in, this may be overshadowed by the vote itself as dissent within the Committee is anticipated from both hawks and doves.
Crude oil is about to officially fall intoYesterday's decline validated our short-selling strategy and the continued validity of the current wave count. Crude oil closed with a large bearish candlestick, completely erasing the gains from Friday and Thursday of last week. It's worth noting that when there's no news or geopolitical support, the bears often outperform the bulls in terms of technical movement. Yesterday's decline also confirmed that the chart pattern wasn't a flat 3-4 wave structure, but rather a zigzag 3-4 wave. Looking at the daily chart, the price was pressured after touching the 60-day moving average, indicating that this upward move, forming a long and complete 3-4 wave, was a preparation for the 3-5 wave decline. The easing of tensions between Russia and Ukraine has also contributed to the bearish trend in crude oil. The current 3-5 wave hasn't yet gained momentum, but once it does, it could break below $55. Therefore, we will continue to trade with a bearish bias today, using small stop-loss orders to aim for larger profits.
Today's crude oil recommendation: 1. Sell at $59.20, with a stop loss of 30 points and a take profit at $57.40. (Alternatively, consider selling near $58.95).
2. If you feel that selling at $59.20 in strategy 1 is too risky, you can sell at $59.50 for a more conservative approach, with a stop loss of 30 points and a take profit at $58.
USOIL Bearish Continuation After Trendline RejectionUSOIL Trade Setup (1H Chart)
Key Levels:
Resistance Trendline: Downward sloping
Support Zone: 59.00 – 59.50
Target Zone: 58.20 – 58.40
“WTI Crude Oil continues to trade within a clear bearish structure, marked by a consistent series of lower highs. The descending trendline shows strong seller control, as price repeatedly fails to break above it.
A major support zone is highlighted around 59.00 – 59.50, where price is currently moving toward after another rejection from the trendline. This reaction confirms the bearish continuation pattern.
If the support zone breaks, the next downside target lies near 58.20 – 58.40, where previous demand and liquidity accumulation occurred.
As long as price remains below the descending trendline, the bearish bias stays intact. Only a clean 1H close above the trendline would weaken this bearish setup.”
Trend: Strong bearish continuation
Bias: Sell below trendline
Support Zone: 59.00 – 59.50
Next Targets: 58.20 → 58.40
Invalidation: Breakout and close above the descending trendline
USOIL: Market Sentiment & Price Action
The analysis of the USOIL chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to tank due to the rising pressure from the sellers.
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wti 1h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
Update on the oil analysisBased on yesterday’s analysis on oil, we said it was a good buying opportunity and that the price had a high chance of reaching $62 per barrel. Today, the price didn’t make any significant move, and we’re only seeing a lot of lower wicks on the candles, which is a good sign and shows strong buying interest.
I don’t think there will be any major movement for the rest of tonight, so we’ll keep the position open for next week and see how the move continues.
Daily Market Report — Thursday, Dec 4, 2025📉 Market Moves
WTI (CLF26): +1.22% → 2-week high
RBOB (RBF26): –0.01% → flat-to-negative
Crude rallied on geopolitics + stalled peace talks, while gasoline stayed weighed down by weak demand signals and pricing cuts from Saudi Arabia.
📊 Key Drivers
Bullish Drivers (major upside catalysts)
1. No breakthrough in US–Russia peace negotiations
Market takeaway:
War is not ending soon
Sanctions on Russian energy remain
Expected return of Russian supply is pushed further out
This was the primary reason WTI broke to a 2-week high.
2. High geopolitical tension in Russia + Venezuela
Russia:
Putin threatens to attack ships helping Ukraine
4 Russian tankers hit in Black Sea
Baltic terminal and CPC pipeline disruptions continue
Russia has lost 13–20% of refining capacity
Venezuela:
Trump declares airspace “closed”
Potential U.S. military strikes
This combination adds a multi-regional risk premium that directly supports crude.
3. Russian export collapse continues
Vortexa shows:
Russia product shipments at 1.7m bpd (3-yr low)
Structural supply tightness persists.
4. OPEC+ pauses increases for Q1-2026
This ensures:
No new supply coming
Market won't be flooded during a surplus-risk period
Bullish because it caps non-Russian supply growth.
5. Rig count collapse (4-year low)
US production risk tilts mildly downward:
Rigs now at 407, down from 627
Signals lower US output in future months
Bearish Drivers (limiting or reversing price strength)
1. Saudi Arabia cuts OSP to Asia → lowest in 5 years
This is a big demand signal:
Aramco cutting Arab Light by 30 cents
Lowest pricing since Jan 2021
Market interprets as weak Asian demand
This was the top bearish driver of the session.
2. Stronger dollar (intraday reversal from multi-week lows)
Dollar rose through the session → capped crude gains and flipped RBOB red.
3. Floating storage at a 2.5-year high
Vortexa:
124.64 million bbl, +12% w/w
The highest since mid-2023
Reinforces the “market saturated” narrative.
4. OPEC + IEA highlight global surplus outlook
OPEC’s Q3 revision → +500k bpd surplus
IEA’s 2026 surplus outlook → +4.0m bpd
Underlying long-term sentiment remains bearish.
📝 Post-Mortem — Thursday, Dec 4, 2025
Why WTI broke to a 2-week high?
War isn’t ending → sanctions remain
Russian tanker attacks escalate supply risk
CPC + terminal disruptions keep pressure on flows
Risk-on sentiment early session
OPEC+ supply cap confirmed
These outweighed the bearish factors.
Why gasoline closed flat-to-negative?
Because gasoline is demand-led:
Saudi OSP cut = huge demand warning for Asia
Dollar strengthened intraday → imports more expensive
Crack spreads soften when economic signals weaken
Thus gasoline diverged from crude and closed red.
What the session tells us
The physical supply side remains tight, but not tightening further.
The demand side is weakening, with Saudi pricing cuts confirming it.
Market is now extremely headline-sensitive, especially around peace talks.
Expect jerky, volatile sessions until clarity emerges from either:
Peace negotiations
Russia export flows
Saudi pricing shifts
OPEC+ messaging
US macro data
U.S. Crude Oil (WTI) The upside barrier is located at $59.66
U.S. crude Oil continues to post mixed results as we hold within the corrective channel formation.
We have a resistance zone between $59.66 and $59.80.
Price in this area continues to attract the sellers.
We could be analysed as holding within a large Wyckoff accumulation zone. This would have an eventual bias to break to the upside.
A 261.8% extension level is currently located at $58.22. This is close to the base of the range
Conclusion: I would expect continued mixed and volatile trading. I look for rallies to be sold within the resistance zone
Bullish breakout?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is reacting off the pivot, which acts as a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 59.54
1st Support: 59.01
1st Resistance: 60.82
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CRUDE OIL Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL price is reacting inside a major supply zone, suggesting a potential shift as liquidity begins to unwind. If orderflow confirms, price may slide back toward the target level as SMC dynamics align with bearish distribution. Time Frame 2H.
Sell!
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Is a sharp move in oil close?A relatively long-term analysis of oil is giving the signal that there’s a possibility of a sharp move down toward $65 per barrel. So on the lower timeframes, we can look for entries and quicker triggers to catch this move. My personal view is that a sharp move is forming.
WTI Crude downtrend continuation resistance at 6980The WTI Crude continues to display a bearish outlook, in line with the prevailing downward trend. Recent price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially setting up for another move lower if resistance holds.
Key Level: 5980
This zone, previously a consolidation area, now acts as a significant resistance level.
Bearish Scenario (rejection at 5980):
A failed test and rejection at 5980 would likely resume the bearish momentum.
Downside targets include:
5796 – Initial support
5728 – Intermediate support
5667 – Longer-term support level
Bullish Scenario (breakout above 5980):
A confirmed breakout and daily close above 5980 would invalidate the bearish setup.
In that case, potential upside resistance levels are:
6025 – First resistance
6100 – Further upside target
Conclusion
WTI Crude remains under bearish pressure, with the 5980 level acting as a key inflection point. As long as price remains below this level, the bias favours further downside. Traders should watch for price confirmation around that level to assess the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
WTI Outlook: Downtrend Bias vs. Bullish HoldFrom a weekly timeframe perspective, crude’s price action has been trending within a downward-sloping parallel channel since October 24, inside a larger downtrending channel from June 2025, which itself sits within an even broader downtrend dating back to December 2023. This multi-layered structure frames the overall bias as bearish and defines the key levels that must be breached to shift the outlook from short-term movements toward a more favorable long-term structure.
Starting with the one-month channel:
• Key upside breakout levels lie at the 60-mark.
• The next resistance sits near the upper boundary of the six-month channel at 62.60.
• A confirmed close above this level could extend gains toward the two-year channel boundary at 66.40 first, then 70, before confirming a longer-term bullish breakout structure.
On the downside, beginning with the one-month channel again:
• A sustained hold below 56 is expected to extend declines toward the six-month channel support at 55.
• A confirmed close below 55 could extend losses toward the original long-term channel boundary at 49, offering another potential buy-the-dip opportunity.
A possible double-bottom reversal pattern could emerge, either from the 55 low or from the 49 low, for a longer-term rebound. However, as long as price remains within the bounds of the downtrending channel established since 2023, the broader bearish bias is expected to persist.
The key levels mentioned above remain the main dividing lines between structural bullish and bearish shifts in crude oil, despite the complex mix of fundamental drivers shaping the market.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
