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Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayPrecise control of production increase pace, directly addressing the pain point of the demand off-season On November 2nd, the eight core member countries of OPEC + reached a key decision: in December 2025, they will maintain a slight increase of 137,000 barrels per day, but in the first quarter of 2026, they will completely suspend further production increases. This decision precisely hedged against the risk of "a record 4 million barrels per day surplus in 2026" as warned by the IEA. By freezing the supply increase in the weakest demand quarter (with demand possibly dropping by 2-3 million barrels per day in February and March), it forms a substantive "price protection and stabilization measure". Compared with the previous market concerns about "continuous production increase", the policy shift brought about a difference in expectations, providing strong support for oil prices. $60 became the implicit bottom line for the OPEC + policy to support the market. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：60.8-61 tp:61.8-62.5 sl:60.4
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Crude oil review - 03/11/2025Oil prices climbed after OPEC+ announced a modest output hike for next month, followed by a production pause through the first quarter of next year. The move signals the group’s acknowledgment of a growing supply surplus in 2026, despite earlier price declines due to concerns about oversupply. While tighter U.S. sanctions on Russian producers have added some uncertainty to supply forecasts, overall market conditions remain skewed toward excess production. Additional risks include disruptions from a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil facility and political instability in Nigeria, which could affect output and shipping flows. On the technical side, the crude oil price has retested the major technical resistance at $62 and corrected to the downside since. Currently, the price is testing the resistance of the 50-day simple moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the daily range. The Bollinger Bands are still expanded, indicating that volatility in the crude oil market remains high, while the Stochastic oscillator is near extreme overbought levels, suggesting a potential bearish correction in the upcoming sessions. If this becomes reality, the first area of potential support may be seen around the $60 level, which is the psychological support of the round number. The second area of support might be found around $58, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
TVC:USOIL
by antreas_themistokleous_exness
wti 1h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths. As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels. ⚠️ Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way. ✅ Recommendation for Use: To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
CFI:WTI
by Deltafx_Broker
Next week's crude oil trading strategyGeopolitical Dimension: Rising Military Risks from the US to Venezuela, Becoming the Largest Uncertain Variable Expected escalation of military operations, supply disruption risk premium On October 31, Western media disclosed that the Trump administration is considering upgrading the military operation against Venezuela from maritime drug interdiction to ground-based air strikes, involving facilities such as naval bases and airport runways. The target list has been evaluated. Venezuela's current daily crude oil production is 940,000 barrels. If the military strike is implemented, its core oil fields and port facilities may be paralyzed, and short-term exports may drop to zero, creating a sudden supply gap. Although Trump did not explicitly deny it and the probability of actual actions before the election is affected by political games, the market has already begun to incorporate geopolitical risk premiums. The CFTC crude oil volatility index has risen from 18 to 25. The Interaction between Russia and Venezuela Adds Uncertainty The Maduro regime has urgently sought military support from Russia, including the supply of anti-missile missile systems and the upgrade of weapons maintenance. The Venezuelan transportation minister has secretly visited Moscow to hand over a personal letter. If Russia intervenes, it may intensify the geopolitical game in Latin America and further disrupt the crude oil supply chain; however, Russia has already invested a large amount of resources in the Ukraine issue, and the possibility of direct military intervention is low. It is more likely to respond in a "low-intensity" manner. Next week's crude oil trading strategy buy：60-60.5 tp:61.5-62 sl:59
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Crude Oil's Critical Breakdown: Is a Plunge to $58 Imminent?Hello, TradingView community! 👋 SpotCrude (WTI) has taken a significant turn, closing the week at a precarious 61.168 . After failing to sustain its recent rally, oil is now teetering on the edge of a major support level. Is this the beginning of a new downtrend, or will buyers step in to defend the line? The upcoming week, November 3rd to 7th, will be decisive. Let's drill down into the multi-timeframe data, blending classic technical theories with key indicators to forge a robust trading strategy for the days ahead. 💡 🌍 The Macro Outlook: Weekly & Daily Charts - The Bears Are Back in Town The market is a battlefield, and the trend is your strongest ally. The higher timeframes are flashing significant warning signals, suggesting the recent strength was merely a correction in a larger downtrend. Weekly Chart (1W) : The long-term picture remains bearish. As per Dow Theory , the primary trend is down, with the recent push higher failing at a key resistance zone. The price is firmly below the Ichimoku Cloud, and the formation of a Bearish Engulfing candle last week is a powerful rejection signal. Daily Chart (1D) : On the daily chart, the story of failure becomes clearer. We have a potential Double Top formation right at a major resistance level. The RSI is exhibiting a clear bearish divergence where price made a higher high, but the RSI failed to confirm, indicating weakening momentum. The price has been decisively rejected and is now threatening to break down from this topping pattern. ⚔️ The Swing Trader's Battleground: 4-Hour & 1-Hour Analysis For swing traders, a classic and powerful reversal pattern has taken center stage. 4-Hour Chart (4H) : This timeframe is the most critical. A clear Head and Shoulders pattern has formed, and crucially, the price has already broken below the neckline . This is a textbook bearish reversal signal. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, pointing to an injection of downside volatility . From a Wyckoff Theory standpoint, this breakdown represents a "Sign of Weakness" (SOW) following a distribution phase at the highs. 1-Hour Chart (1H) : The hourly chart confirms the breakdown with conviction. Price is trading well below the VWAP and the Ichimoku Cloud, both of which are now acting as overhead resistance. Any attempt to rally back to the broken neckline (around the 62.00-62.20 area) is likely to be met with significant selling pressure. 🔬 The Intraday Scalpel: 30M, 15M, & 5M Insights For intraday traders, the path of least resistance is clearly down. 30M/15M Charts : These timeframes are displaying a strong, impulsive downtrend. Following the initial breakdown, we are seeing the formation of a Bearish Pennant or flag. This typically represents a brief pause as sellers reload for the next push lower. The RSI is hovering near oversold levels, so a minor bounce is possible, but this is likely a selling opportunity, not a reversal. 5M Chart : On the 5-minute chart, the VWAP is the key level to watch. As long as the price remains below it, bears are in full control. Scalpers should be wary of any sudden spikes upward, as they could be a bear trap designed to lure in buyers before the next decline. Watch for volume to increase on down moves as confirmation of the bearish intent. ⏳ Gann Theory & Price/Time Analysis Applying the principles of W.D. Gann, the rejection occurred at a key Gann resistance angle. The price has now broken below a key support angle, suggesting an acceleration of the downtrend. Gann's range analysis points to the $58.00 - $58.50 area as the next major price magnet to the downside. 🎯 Actionable Trade Plan for the Week Ahead Based on this comprehensive analysis, the bearish case is overwhelmingly strong. The Primary Bearish Scenario 🐻 Entry: The ideal entry is to short a pullback to the broken Head and Shoulders neckline, targeting the 62.00 - 62.20 resistance zone. An alternative entry is to short the breakdown of the current bearish pennant, below 61.00 . Targets: The first target is the psychological 60.00 level. The main target, derived from the Head and Shoulders pattern measurement, is the major support zone at 58.50 . Invalidation: A strong and sustained 4H candle close back above the right shoulder of the pattern, specifically above 63.00 , would negate the immediate bearish thesis. The Low-Probability Bullish Scenario 🐂 Entry: This is a counter-trend trade and is not recommended. It would require an exceptionally strong reclaim of the 62.50 level, effectively invalidating the entire Head and Shoulders pattern. Targets: Resistance at 63.50 and 64.50 . Invalidation: Any drop back below 62.00 . Conclusion: The Evidence Points Down The technical picture for Crude Oil is decidedly bearish. With a confirmed Head and Shoulders breakdown on the 4H chart, supported by weakness on both higher and lower timeframes, the path of least resistance is to the downside. This week, the strategy is to sell the rallies . Be patient and wait for a high-probability entry near established resistance. What are your thoughts on oil? Are you positioning for a further drop, or do you see a reversal in the cards? Share your analysis in the comments below! 👇 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by sunya
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayThe spot market and capital are in resonance, and short-term support is clear. 1.Strengthening of spot structure: The near-month WTI contract has returned to a spot premium structure, and the Brent-WTI spread is stable, reflecting the expectation of short-term supply tightness and providing a fundamental support for the current price. 2.Dual benefits of inventory and capital: U.S. EIA inventories have been reduced for several consecutive weeks, and the latest published value is significantly lower than expected, confirming the marginal improvement in demand; trend trading funds have recently increased their long positions, driving short-term short-squeeze momentum. 3.Cost and reserve support: Warren Buffett's Western Oil holdings imply a long-term equilibrium price of WTI at approximately $58.2, and the current price of $60.26 is close to the value support range; the U.S. SPR is at its lowest level since 1990, reducing its ability to stabilize oil prices and strengthening the bottom support. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:61-61.5 sl:58.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayThe conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and the reconstruction of supply chains takes a long time. The short-term conflict between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to be resolved. Russian oil needs to rely on shadow fleets for transportation, but currently the discount is only 1-2 US dollars (far lower than the historical level of 10-20 US dollars), and there is insufficient willingness from third parties to take over. The reconstruction of supply chains is expected to take more than 3 months, and during this period, a supply gap of 100-150 thousand barrels per day will continue to support oil prices. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has risen, and loose liquidity is beneficial. The market expects a higher probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in November and December. The loose liquidity environment will be beneficial for crude oil and other risky assets, while lowering the US dollar index and reducing the purchase cost of non-US currencies, stimulating the demand for replenishment in emerging markets. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:61-61.560 sl:58.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
"Policy + Spot" dual support, short-term recovery potentialThe expectation of Fed rate cut strengthens the financial attributes The current market probability of a 25BP rate cut by the Fed in October is 88%. The implementation of the rate cut will lower the US dollar index (currently at 93.5, if the rate cut occurs, it may drop to 92.5), and the cost of non-US currencies for purchasing crude oil decreases - the Brent crude oil price denominated in euros may decrease by 3%-4%, stimulating non-US demand countries such as India and China to replenish stocks, and short-term pushing up oil prices. Spot supply and demand are marginally tight The Dubai crude oil premium in the Middle East spot market remains at 1.8 US dollars per barrel (higher than 0.6 US dollars a month ago), and the crude oil purchase volume of Chinese refineries in October increased by 28% (for replenishment demand), and the execution rate of OPEC+ for an increase of 13.7 thousand barrels per day in November was only 58% (Saudi Arabia and Russia did not fully increase production), the spot market supports the 60 US dollar price level. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:61-61.5 sl:58.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
1
wti 1h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths. As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels. ⚠️ Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way. ✅ Recommendation for Use: To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
CFI:WTI
by Deltafx_Broker
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today1.The dual benefits of the interest rate cut: On October 30, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which has placed the probability at 85.5%. The US dollar index is likely to weaken along with the easing policy, and the decline in the purchase cost of non-US currencies will stimulate demand expectations. At the same time, in the context of preventive interest rate cuts, economic demand resilience still exists, avoiding the suppression of recessionary interest rate cuts on oil prices. The short-term financial attribute-driven trend is clear. 2.Geopolitical disturbances and OPEC+ negotiations to stabilize: The attack by Ukraine on Russian refineries has led to a decline in Russia's oil product exports. While OPEC+ maintained a moderate increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November, and Saudi Arabia and Russia had differences in the expansion pace, the actual increase in production fulfillment rate was less than 60%. The supply-side pressure has not been significantly released, providing a bottom support for oil prices. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:61-61.5 sl:58.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
WTI oversold bounce back capped at 6160The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the longer term support, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend. Key resistance is located at 6160, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move. A bearish rejection from 6160 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 5946, followed by 5845 and 5780 over a longer timeframe. Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6160 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6215, then 6300. Conclusion: The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the WTI Crude price breaks and holds above 6160. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:WTI
by Trade Nation
USOIL Crudeoil bullish forecast down trend breakdout🚨 USOIL (Crude Oil) Technical Update 🚨 🕒 Timeframe: 1H 📉 After a clear downtrend breakout, price has shown a strong bullish consolidation breakout from the key support zone at $60.700. 🔥 Momentum is shifting bullish, signaling potential continuation to the upside. 🎯 Technical Targets: $61.300 — Initial resistance / short-term target $62.000 — Mid-term bullish objective $62.800 — Extended target / next major resistance 📊 Outlook: As long as price holds above $60.700, buyers remain in control. Watch for sustained volume and candle confirmation for further continuation. #USOIL #CrudeOil #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex #Commodities #Trading #Breakout #BullishMomentum 💪📈
FX:USOILLong
by ExpertTraderASK
2
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayThe policy replenishment window has opened, and official buying has formed a bottoming force. On October 27, the US Department of Energy clearly announced that it plans to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), with the delivery period set from December to January next year, and the purchase price locked in at around $60. Although the single purchase volume is limited, this is the first clear official replenishment action since the oil price dropped, sending a strong signal that "60 dollars is the policy bottom". At the same time, although OPEC+ has entered a production increase cycle, it only plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and there are differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia on the extent of production increase. The actual implementation rate may be lower than expected and is unlikely to form a substantive supply shock. Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today buy：59.5-60 tp:61-61.5 sl:58.5
TVC:USOILLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
US OIL SUPPORT, RESISTANCE & TRENDLINE ANALYSISI hope whoever followed my levels must have been a great help for them. Go "SHORT" if it breaks 60.46 along with the trendline with 60.07 as first target and breaking that might lead to 59.69 and breaking that as well might lead to 59.30 Go "LONG" if it breaks 60.46 with 60.85 as first target and breaking that might lead to 61.18 and breaking further might lead to 61.56 and if again if breaks and sustains then we might see a good move till 62.23
TVC:USOIL
by TRaDe_Or_B_TRaDeD