Analysis of Oil Prices Trend Next WeekI. First, understand: The "core issue" of oil prices next week, both rising and falling, have reasons for their movements.
Currently, the oil price stands at 61.41. It just experienced a 5% surge on Thursday, but the increase was "unsteady". The essence is that "short-term positive factors are supporting it, while long-term negative factors are pressing on it". Next week, it will be influenced by three key points:
1.Short-term positive factors: Geopolitical sanctions "just started", which can support the price.
The EU and the United States just issued new sanctions against Russia last week, directly targeting the energy industry. The two major Russian oil giants account for 50% of exports. The market is afraid of supply disruption, just like when the sanctions were implemented before, Indian buyers immediately suspended their purchases of Russian oil and turned to buy oil from the Middle East, and the spot price rose by 3% on the same day. In addition, US inventories have dropped by 960,000 barrels, and refinery operating rates have risen to 88.6%, indicating that "oil is used more than it is stored", and there will be no significant decline in the short term.
2.Long-term negative factors: Oil-producing countries "continuously increase production", and when it rises, it must be brought down.
OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day next week. This is the eighth consecutive increase. The cumulative increase is 2.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to the output of an additional small oil-producing country. More troublesome is that institutions predict that supply过剩 will reach 4 million barrels per day next year, equivalent to 4% of global demand. In the long term, oil prices will not rise at all, and may even fall to around 50 US dollars.
3.Market sentiment: "Retail investors are chasing the rise, while institutions are withdrawing their funds", the fluctuations will be significant.
Currently, 82% of traders are buying the rise, it looks very hot, but the long positions of institutions are decreasing - this is like "a group of people rushing forward, while the leader is quietly retreating". Reflected in the price is: when it hits above 62 US dollars， there are sell orders coming down， when it drops to 61， there are buy orders coming in， next week it is likely to swing back and forth between 60-63， it will not rise or fall in a single direction.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Next Week
usoil @buy 60.5-61.0
tp:62-62.5
SL:59.5
