WTI Crude Holds at Its Lowest Levels of the YearWTI crude oil continues to show a steady bearish bias below the 60-dollar area in the short term. For now, selling pressure has remained firm, while recent comments regarding the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia point to an increase in reinforcements aimed at achieving a possible ceasefire. Such a scenario could reduce the economic sanctions currently imposed on Russia and, over time, become an important factor that drives a stronger-than-expected recovery in global crude production. This backdrop has kept confidence in the price of the barrel limited, reinforcing a persistent bearish tone that could continue if an official ceasefire is eventually reached.
Medium-Term Trend Remains Firm:
During the second half of the year, the prevailing bearish movements in WTI have maintained a perspective aligned with a solid medium-term downward trendline. So far, no meaningful buying corrections have appeared that could threaten this bearish structure in recent weeks, making it likely that this formation will continue to dominate most price movements in the medium term—especially if the market continues to trade below the 50-period simple moving average.
Neutrality Begins to Emerge in Indicators:
At the moment, both the RSI line and the MACD histogram remain oscillating within the neutral range of their respective indicators. This suggests that, in the short term, both the average selling and buying impulses and the directional strength of the moving averages remain in a neutral and indecisive zone, which can partly be explained by the price interacting with important support areas. What matters here is that as long as both indicators maintain this neutral stance, they could open the door for potential bullish corrections to develop in the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
60 dollars: This is the main resistance on the chart, aligned with the current downward trendline, the barrier marked by the 50-period moving average, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Buying moves that manage to break above this area could trigger a break of the bearish trend, potentially activating a more constructive bullish tone.
58 dollars: This level corresponds to the most recent zone of indecision and could become the reference area to monitor if bullish corrections begin to form within current price movements.
57 dollars: This marks the lowest level of the year and stands as the most relevant bearish barrier at the moment. Selling moves that break below this level could open the door to a more aggressive bearish bias, extending the current downward trend even further.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT - Market Analyst
