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# USOIL Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy# USOIL Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy * Current Position: 64.581 (August 23, 2025, 12:50 AM UTC+4) --- * **Market Overview & Fundamental Backdrop** *# Key Market Drivers: *OPEC+ Production Increase**: Starting August 2025, OPEC+ nations increased output by 548,000 barrels per day *Bearish Supply Outlook**: EIA forecasts Brent crude falling from $71/barrel in July to $58/barrel in Q4 2025 *Inventory Build**: Global oil inventories rising due to supply exceeding demand *Current Price Action**: USOIL down 14.91% year-over-year, testing critical support zone --- * **Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis** *# **Monthly/Weekly (Swing Analysis)** **Elliott Wave Analysis:** - Currently in Wave C of a corrective ABC pattern from 2024 highs - Major support confluence at 63.88-64.72 zone (previous significant lows) - If support fails, next target: 58-60 range (EIA fundamental target alignment) **Wyckoff Analysis:** - Phase C of Distribution: Testing support after distribution top - Volume analysis suggests institutional selling on rallies - Support test at current levels critical for future direction *# **Daily Timeframe** **Harmonic Patterns:** - Potential Bearish Bat pattern completion around 66-67 resistance - AB=CD pattern suggests 62-63 as next measured target if support breaks **Ichimoku Analysis:** - Price below all major Ichimoku levels (bearish) - Kumo (cloud) acting as resistance around 67-69 - Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen bearish cross occurred *# **4H/1H Analysis** **Key Levels:** *Resistance**: 66.50, 67.20, 68.00 *Support**: 64.00, 63.88, 62.50 **RSI Analysis:** - 4H RSI: 35-40 range (oversold territory) - Divergence watch: Any bullish divergence could signal temporary bounce **Bollinger Bands:** - Price at lower band, suggesting potential oversold bounce - Squeeze pattern developing, indicating volatility expansion ahead **VWAP Analysis:** - Daily VWAP: 65.80 (price below - bearish) - Weekly VWAP: 67.20 (strong resistance) *# **Intraday (5M-30M) Analysis** **Moving Averages:** - 20 EMA: Acting as immediate resistance at 64.80 - 50 SMA: Dynamic resistance at 65.50 - 200 SMA: Key level at 67.00 **Gann Theory Application:** *Square of 9**: Next support at 63.00 (significant Gann level) *Time Cycles**: 14-21 day cycle suggests potential reversal zone by August 28-30 *Gann Angles**: 2x1 angle support at 63.50 *Price Squaring**: 64² = important mathematical support --- * **Weekly Trading Strategy (August 26-30, 2025)** *# **Monday, August 26** **Setup**: Support Bounce Play *Entry**: 64.20-64.40 (if holding above 63.88) *Stop Loss**: 63.70 *Target 1**: 65.20 *Target 2**: 65.80 *Risk-Reward**: 1:2 *# **Tuesday, August 27** **Setup**: Breakdown Play (if Monday support fails) *Entry**: Break below 63.80 with volume *Stop Loss**: 64.30 *Target 1**: 62.50 *Target 2**: 61.80 *Risk-Reward**: 1:2.5 *# **Wednesday, August 28** **Setup**: Range Trade *Long Entry**: 63.00-63.20 *Short Entry**: 65.50-65.80 *Range SL**: 50 pips *Range Targets**: Opposite side of range *# **Thursday, August 29** **Setup**: Momentum Follow *Bullish**: Above 65.80 with volume → Target 66.50 *Bearish**: Below 63.00 → Target 61.50 *Stop**: 40-50 pips from entry *# **Friday, August 30** **Setup**: Weekly Close Strategy *Focus**: Position for next week based on weekly close *Above 64.50**: Bullish bias for next week *Below 63.50**: Bearish bias for next week --- * **Risk Management Framework** *# **Position Sizing** - Maximum risk per trade: 2% of account - Daily loss limit: 4% of account - Weekly loss limit: 8% of account *# **Market Hours Focus** *Best Volatility**: 13:30-17:00 UTC (US session) *Asian Session**: 01:00-08:00 UTC (lower volatility) *Overlap Periods**: Highest volume and best setups --- * **Geopolitical & Macro Scenarios** *# **Bearish Catalysts** 1. **OPEC+ Further Production Increases**: Could push prices to $58-60 range 2. **US Strategic Reserve Releases**: Additional supply pressure 3. **China Economic Slowdown**: Reduced demand expectations 4. **Recession Fears**: Global demand destruction *# **Bullish Catalysts** 1. **Middle East Tensions**: Any supply disruption risk 2. **OPEC+ Production Reversal**: If they halt planned increases 3. **Hurricane Season**: Potential Gulf of Mexico disruptions 4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Russia-Ukraine, Iran tensions *# **Probability Assessment** *Bearish Scenario (60%)**: Break below 63.88 → Target 58-60 *Neutral Scenario (25%)**: Range-bound 63.50-66.50 *Bullish Scenario (15%)**: Recovery above 67.00 → Target 70-72 --- * **Key Economic Events to Watch** *# **This Week** - EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday) - OPEC+ Meeting Minutes/Statements - US GDP Data - China Manufacturing PMI *# **Next Week** - Non-Farm Payrolls - OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - China Trade Balance --- * **Technical Confluence Summary** *# **Strong Support Zone: 63.00-63.88** - Previous significant lows - Gann Square of 9 level - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement - Wyckoff support test zone *# **Key Resistance Zone: 66.50-67.20** - Weekly VWAP - 200-day SMA - Ichimoku cloud base - Volume profile resistance --- * **Trading Recommendations** *# **Short-Term (1-2 weeks)** **Bias**: Bearish below 65.00 **Strategy**: Sell rallies, buy only on oversold bounces *# **Medium-Term (1 month)** **Bias**: Bearish **Target**: 58-60 range based on fundamental outlook *# **Long-Term (3-6 months)** **Bias**: Range-bound to bearish **Range**: 55-70 with periodic volatility spikes --- *Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes. Always use proper risk management and consider your risk tolerance before trading.* For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by sunya
USOIL Is Going Down! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 63.760. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 63.300 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
1
US Crude oil Spotits neo wave alternative count for wave 1 of wave C in lower degree and it wave C of Wave 2 or Wave A let see. Earlier posted little different wave 1 count and wave 2 count for wave C let see which one fit as in progress . In both case near $67 is invalidation point. Also bearish gartley and other harmonic pattern developed which I shown in charts in previous post. I am not SEBI registered analyst and its not buy , sell and hold recommendation and having position in it in mcx.
CFI:WTI
by ManishDamani663ab2f2a8cf4dde
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 60 (Wave "3").Wave “C” continues to develop in a five-wave movement. Right now, I think wave “1” has just ended and we will see a small correction to the 66,280 area (wave ‘2’), after which I expect wave “3” to develop, which should go further than the 60 support level, but this is a fairly strong psychological level at which it would be good to take profits. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by Hellena_Trade
6
USOILUnemployment Claims: 235,000 (previous 226,000 and 224,000), indicating a slight rise in weekly jobless claims, which may suggest some softening in the labor market. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: -0.3 (previous readings 6.8 and 15.9), signaling contraction in manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region, a notable decline from recent positive readings. Flash Manufacturing PMI: 53.3 (previous 49.7 and 49.8), indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector nationwide with improvement from contraction in prior months. Flash Services PMI: 55.4 (previous 54.2 and 55.7), showing continued growth in the services sector, with a slight increase compared to the previous month. These mixed signals suggest some regional manufacturing weakness but overall continued expansion in US manufacturing and services, while the recent rise in unemployment claims is worth monitoring for any emerging labor market softness. USOIL WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ,AFTER BREAK OF DEMANDFLOOR ON WEEKLY. #USOIL
FX:USOILLong
by Shavyfxhub
THE BEAST! Back in town to say helloSo it has been a while since the last idea on the Beast that is USOIL(WTI) In that time there has been a lot of ups and downs. More downs than ups I may add. Simply put, anyone with the patience to wait for the low 60’s and subsequently the high to mid 50’s had a very good time buying as price is only just coming back there. There is some sentiment towards price going back to the 50’s again but an up move is very likely between now and October. If price behaves anything like 4 years ago, This most recent dip could be the last time we see the sixties for the next 6-8 weeks. I personally have targets as high as 70, 74, 77 and even 82-84. This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt. Good luck 🤞
TVC:USOILLong
by Squeeezy-Trader
WTI Crude Oil — Price Corrects Toward Long-Term UptrendCurrent Setup WTI crude is trading near 64.00, supported by a sharp drop in U.S. inventories (–6.01M vs. –0.80M expected) and lower gasoline stockpiles (–2.70M). Demand recovery during the summer season underpins the market, while geopolitical risks and ongoing sanctions on Russian oil add further support. CFTC data shows net long positions declining from 141.8K → 116.7K, reflecting reduced speculative activity. Despite short-term pressure, the long-term trend remains bullish, with potential upside toward 71.00 and 76.30 if buyers regain momentum above 65.50. Key Levels • Resistance: 69.85 / 76.30 / 80.50 • Support: 64.50 / 60.25 Trading Scenarios Primary Scenario • Recommendation: BUY STOP • Entry: 65.55 • Take Profit: 71.00 • Stop Loss: 63.50 • Timeframe: 9–12 days Alternative Scenario • Recommendation: SELL STOP • Entry: 61.90 • Take Profit: 60.24 • Stop Loss: 62.78 • Timeframe: 9–12 days
TVC:USOIL
by John_Isige
USCrudeOil| Inventory Draw Lifts Prices Fed Geopolitics in Focus🛢️ USCRUDE OIL – Overview Oil edges higher amid U.S. stock draw WTI crude oil futures rose to $63.45 per barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session after U.S. crude inventories posted a bigger-than-expected draw. 📊 EIA data showed stockpiles fell by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million, compared to expectations for a 1.3 million-barrel draw, providing short-term support for prices. At the same time, markets are watching closely for progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump. Any breakthrough that results in easing sanctions on Russian crude exports could shift global supply dynamics. Despite the latest rebound, crude prices remain down over 10% year-to-date, pressured by expectations of oversupply as OPEC+ restores output and tariff concerns weigh on demand outlook. 🔎 Technical Outlook Bearish Scenario: As long as price trades below the pivot line at 63.47, downside targets are seen at 61.83, and a break lower could extend losses toward 60.16. Bullish Scenario: A 4H candle close above 63.47 would open the way toward 64.72, with further upside potential toward 65.80 – 67.20. 📍 Key Levels Pivot: 63.47 Support: 62.25 – 61.85 – 60.20 Resistance: 64.70 – 65.80 – 67.20 ⚠️ Crude remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and inventory data — expect volatility around key supply developments. Previous idea:
TVC:USOILShort
by SroshMayi
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 65.56 1st Support: 62.67 1st Resistance: 67.44 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by ICmarkets
Crude oil's downward trend remains unchangedCrude oil rebounded briefly and is currently trading around 63. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels last week, compared to market expectations of only 1.8 million barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels, far exceeding expectations of a 915,000-barrel drop, indicating strong summer travel demand. The latest inventory data suggests a recovery in U.S. demand, particularly the rebound in aviation fuel demand, is providing new growth momentum for global energy consumption. The latest U.S. inventory data, which far exceeded market expectations, has instilled confidence in the market. Despite the increase in demand, some caution remains in the market. This caution is primarily due to geopolitical uncertainty. Due to slow progress in negotiations, sanctions against Russia continue, and the possibility of further restrictions in the future are also weighing on the market. Furthermore, the United States announced that it will impose a 25% tariff on some Indian goods, effective August 27, in response to continued imports of Russian crude oil. Meanwhile, Europe has also imposed restrictions on some Indian refineries. Therefore, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the current crude oil price. Technically, the daily crude oil chart shows that prices have found support above $60 and have repeatedly stabilized near the 100-day moving average, forming a moderate upward trend in the short term. Currently, prices are trading above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating increased bullish momentum. However, there is strong resistance above $65. The 4-hour candlestick chart shows that the price is still in a downtrend. Further upside is possible only if resistance near $65 is broken. A decline below $62 could lead to a retest of the $60 support level. Crude oil short-term strategy: Enter a short position near $63.5 and wait for a decline, targeting $62 and $61.8.
TVC:USOILShort
by Violet_Trading_Strategy
USOIL - 1HMarket hovering around ~63 which validates my earlier post. Now considering if bulls can keep the momentum going, next target is ~64-64.2 right into resistance. Earlier price rejected at 62.6-7 area few times only to fill the FVG below and break above 62.7 shows bulls weren't playing around. Now I am skeptical since we have our friend Jerry speaking tomorrow to ruin our lives, I am betting bulls will keep the momentum going till Jerry speaks. If he's dovish we make a break above 64, if he's hawkish we will see bearish momentum continuing till 60 IMO. NFA
TVC:USOIL
by ZephyrM88
Bullish reversal off pullback support?USO/USD has bounced off the support level, which is a pullback support, and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 62.59 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 60.51 Why we lik eit: There is a multi swing low support. Take profit: 65.51 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up witht he 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDLong
by VantageMarkets