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WTI - Moscow's Discounts Keep Russian Oil Flowing to IndiaIndian refineries are still incentivized to buy Russian Urals oil, says Commerzbank Research's Carsten Fritsch. President Trump inflicted stiff tariffs on New Delhi--including a 25% levy for its purchases of Russian oil--but Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears unwilling to bow to U.S. pressure. Meanwhile, the Kremlin cut the price of its oil in order to keep Indian customers. "This oil is being offered at a discount of $3-$4 per barrel compared to Brent for cargoes loaded at the end of September and in October," Fritsch says, citing unnamed sources. "By comparison, Indian refineries recently had to pay a premium of $3 over Brent for U.S. oil."
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by DynamicCapital-FX
WTI Surges Above 65$ ResistanceCrude oil is currently supported by a combination of energy sanctions, geopolitical tensions, and rate cut expectations — with price action eyeing the $70 barrier as long as it holds above $65.20. WTI maintained its rebound above the 61.80–62.00 support zone — aligning with the neckline of the previous inverted head and shoulders formation — and has broken above the 65 resistance level, signaling a potential continuation of bullish momentum. Daily RSI has also moved above the neutral 50 level, further confirming upside momentum. • A clean hold above 65.20 may extend the rally toward 68.00, 69.40, and 70.40 — the next major resistance levels. • On the downside, 62.00 and 61.80 remain key support levels. A break below them could expose oil to deeper losses toward 59.40 and 57.90.
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
USOil Bear Trap Set: Ready For The Downside Raid?🛢️ WTI Oil Bearish Heist Plan 💣 | Thief Trader Layers Activated 🔐 💥 Welcome to the vault raid, Thief OG’s! 💥 We’re targeting US Oil Spot / WTI (XTIUSD) — and this time, the plan is pure Bearish robbery. 🚨 The Robbery Setup: This isn’t just a sell — it’s a layered ambush. We place traps, let bulls walk in, and then we rob clean. 📌 Thief Entry Plan (Limit Layers): Sell Limit @63.000 Sell Limit @63.500 Sell Limit @64.000 Sell Limit @64.500 👉 You can stack more layers if the vault door keeps opening. 🛑 Thief Stop Loss: SL locked @65.500 🔒 ⚠️ Adjust your SL like a true Thief — according to your risk + number of layers. 🎯 Escape Plan (Target): 🚔 Police barricade spotted around 59.000. 📌 Official Heist Exit: 60.000 — grab the loot before the cops arrive. 🧠 Thief Strategy Logic: Multi-layer sell ambush 🏴‍☠️ Bearish pressure from supply + demand shifts 📊 Technical rejection zones aligning with macro weakness 📉 ⚠️ Risk Management Note: Thieves don’t rush! 👉 Place alerts before the raid. 👉 Don’t dump blind orders — wait for price to approach layers. 👉 Manage your position like a stealth operation, not a casino gamble. 💬 Thief Community Code: Smash ❤️ & Boost if you’re with the robbery crew. Drop your charts + sniper entries below. We rob together. We win together. 🏆 🔔 Stay locked in — more heist plans dropping soon. 💰 Rob Smart. Trade Sharp. Exit Clean.
FX:USOILSPOTShort
by The-Thief
USOIL Will Go Lower! Sell! Take a look at our analysis for USOIL. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 64.627. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 63.428. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:USOILShort
by SignalProvider
1
USOIL Massive Long! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the USOIL next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 64.00 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 64.22 My Stop Loss - 63.89 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILLong
by AnabelSignals
1
# USOIL WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# USOIL WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast Current Price: $64.612 (As of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Asset Class: USOIL / WTI Crude Oil Cash Analysis Date: August 30, 2025 --- Executive Summary WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) continues to navigate a complex fundamental landscape, currently trading at $64.612 per barrel amid significant bearish pressure. Recent market data shows crude oil fell to $64.04 on August 29, 2025, declining 0.87% from the previous session with a concerning 8.51% monthly drop and 12.93% year-over-year decline. Technical analysis reveals the commodity has broken below critical support levels around $65.00-66.00, with strong resistance encountered at the descending trend line near $65.27. Our comprehensive analysis indicates potential for further downside toward $58-60 zone, though geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production dynamics could trigger sharp reversals. --- Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Analysis WTI Crude Oil exhibits a complex corrective structure within a multi-year consolidation pattern: Primary Count: Completing Wave C of larger degree ABC correction from 2022 highs Wave Structure: Currently in final stages of 5-wave decline toward $58-62 target Corrective Phase: Large degree consolidation between $60-85 range since 2022 Long-term Projection: Eventual breakout above $85 targets $110-120 by 2026-2027 Invalidation Level: Break below $55 would extend corrective phase significantly Fibonacci Relationships: Current decline showing 1.618 extension characteristics Wyckoff Market Structure Analysis Oil demonstrates classic Wyckoff Distribution Phase completion with transition to Markdown: Phase: Early Markdown Phase following Distribution completion Volume Analysis: Increasing volume on declines indicating institutional selling Price Action: Breaking support levels with follow-through selling Composite Operator Activity: Smart money liquidating positions accumulated above $70 Market Character: Weak rallies met with fresh selling pressure Re-accumulation Zone: $58-62 represents potential future accumulation area W.D. Gann Comprehensive Analysis Square of 9 Analysis: - Current price $64.612 positioned near 90-degree Gann support turning point - Next major Gann level: $58.50 (180-degree decline from recent high) - Time and price convergence: September 21-28, 2025 (Autumn Equinox influence) - Critical Gann squares: $62.41, $58.50, $54.76 (geometric decline sequence) Angle Theory Application: - 1x1 Declining Angle Resistance: $67-68 (primary downtrend line) - 2x1 Accelerated Decline: $60-62 (next support cluster) - 1x2 Support Angle: $55-58 (major correction boundary) - 1x4 Long-term Support: $48-52 (crisis scenario support) Time Cycle Analysis: - 84-day cycle low expected: Mid-September 2025 - Seasonal Gann Pattern: September-October typically sees oil volatility - Major time window: October 5-15, 2025 (potential reversal period) - Annual cycle: Q4 seasonal strength often supports energy complex Price Forecasting & Time Harmonics: - Immediate support: $62-64 - Primary target: $58-60 - Extended decline: $54-56 - Time harmony suggests potential reversal after October 8, 2025 Ranges in Harmony: - Current range: $62-68 (breakdown phase) - Next trading range: $55-65 (potential base formation) - Long-term channel: $45-85 (multi-year consolidation) --- Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Pattern Analysis Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart) Bearish Engulfing: August 26-27 confirming breakdown below $65 support Long Upper Shadows: Repeated rejection at $65.50-66.00 resistance levels Spinning Tops: Indecision candles around $64-65 zone Volume Confirmation: Increasing volume on red candles, declining on green Dark Cloud Cover: August 28-29 pattern confirming selling pressure Harmonic Pattern Recognition Bearish Gartley Completion: $68-70 zone (recent distribution area) ABCD Extension: Active decline targeting $58-60 completion zone Bearish Butterfly: Potential completion at $54-56 extreme target Fibonacci Confluence: Multiple extension levels converging at $58.50 Advanced Harmonic Analysis Three Drives Down: Developing pattern toward $58-60 target zone Bearish Crab Formation: Long-term pattern suggesting $52-55 targets AB=CD Equality: Price and time relationships supporting $58 target Cypher Pattern: Potential bullish reversal consideration at $58-60 Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Assessment Current Market Structure: Bear Trap Probability: 25% - Potential false breakdown below $62 support Bull Trap Scenario: 75% - Any rally above $67 likely to be sold aggressively Key Levels: Sustained break below $60 confirms bearish continuation Volume Pattern: High volume selling indicates genuine breakdown rather than trap --- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Current Cloud Structure (Daily Chart) Price Position: Below Kumo cloud indicating bearish trend dominance Tenkan-sen (9-period): $65.24 (short-term dynamic resistance) Kijun-sen (26-period): $67.18 (medium-term resistance level) Senkou Span A: $66.21 (leading span A - resistance) Senkou Span B: $69.45 (leading span B - major cloud resistance) Chikou Span: Below historical price action confirming bearish sentiment Future Kumo Analysis (26 periods ahead): - Thickening cloud structure indicating strong resistance above - Future resistance zone: $65-70 (forward-looking cloud base) - Cloud twist not anticipated until late Q4 2025 Ichimoku Trading Signals TK Cross: Tenkan below Kijun (active bearish signal) Price vs Cloud: Below cloud with downward momentum Chikou Span: Clear below price history (bearish confirmation) Cloud Breakout: Failed to maintain position above cloud support --- Technical Indicators Comprehensive Analysis RSI (Relative Strength Index) Multi-Timeframe Daily RSI: 38.6 (oversold territory but not extreme) Weekly RSI: 42.3 (bearish momentum with room for decline) 4H RSI: 35.2 (approaching oversold with potential bounce) RSI Divergence: No bullish divergence detected, momentum remains bearish RSI Support: 30 level crucial for preventing deeper decline Bollinger Bands Analysis Current Position: Price near lower band ($62.50 level) Band Width: Expanding indicating increasing volatility %B Indicator: 0.18 (near lower extreme, potential bounce zone) Band Squeeze: Recent expansion from squeeze formation VWAP Analysis (Volume Weighted Average Price) Daily VWAP: $65.47 (dynamic resistance level) Weekly VWAP: $67.23 (key resistance zone) Monthly VWAP: $69.18 (major resistance level) Volume Profile: Highest volume acceptance at $66-68 zone now resistance Moving Average Structure 10 EMA: $65.89 (immediate dynamic resistance) 20 EMA: $67.12 (short-term resistance) 50 SMA: $69.45 (intermediate resistance) 100 SMA: $71.23 (key resistance level) 200 SMA: $73.87 (major secular resistance) Moving Average Signals: - Perfect bearish alignment across all timeframes - Death Cross pattern established (50/200 SMA) - Price trading below all major moving averages --- Support & Resistance Analysis Primary Resistance Levels 1. R1: $66.50-67.00 (immediate technical resistance and daily VWAP) 2. R2: $68.00-68.50 (previous support turned resistance) 3. R3: $70.00-70.50 (psychological and technical confluence) 4. R4: $72.00-73.00 (major moving average cluster) 5. R5: $75.00-76.00 (long-term resistance zone) Primary Support Levels 1. S1: $62.50-63.00 (immediate Gann support and lower Bollinger Band) 2. S2: $60.00-61.00 (psychological and harmonic support) 3. S3: $58.00-59.00 (major Gann target and Elliott Wave projection) 4. S4: $55.00-56.00 (extended harmonic target) 5. S5: $52.00-54.00 (crisis scenario and long-term support) Volume-Based Support/Resistance High Volume Node: $66-68 (now major resistance zone) Low Volume Gap: $60-62 (potential rapid movement area) Volume Support: $58-60 (potential accumulation zone) POC (Point of Control): $67.25 (maximum volume acceptance, now resistance) --- Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Framework Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts) 5-Minute Timeframe Methodology: Entry Signals: Short rallies to 20 EMA with RSI >65 in downtrend Profit Targets: $0.30-0.50 per barrel per scalping trade Stop Loss: $0.20-0.30 maximum risk per position Volume Filter: Above-average volume required on breakdown continuation Time Windows: Asian session 1:00-4:00 AM, London open 3:00-6:00 AM EST 15-Minute Scalping Framework: Range Trading: Current range $63.50-65.50 Breakdown Strategy: Volume confirmation below $63.50 for continuation Counter-trend: Fade rallies above $65.50 without volume Risk Management: Maximum 3 positions simultaneously, 1:1.5 R:R minimum Intraday Trading Strategies (30M, 1H, 4H) 30-Minute Chart Approach: Trend Following: Short below EMA cluster ($65.50-66.00) Pattern Trading: Bear flag and pennant formations Target Methodology: Initial $62.50, extended $60-61 Risk Parameters: $0.80-1.20 stops, 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum 1-Hour Chart Strategy: Momentum Trading: MACD bearish crossovers with histogram expansion Resistance Shorting: Short entries from $66-67.50 zone Support Testing: Monitor $62-63 area for breakdown continuation Session Management: Focus on US trading hours 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM EST 4-Hour Swing Framework: Cloud Strategy: Short on failed attempts to reclaim Ichimoku cloud Elliott Wave: Ride Wave C completion toward major targets Fibonacci Trading: Use 38.2% and 50% retracements for short entries Hold Duration: 5-15 days for swing positions Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) Daily Chart Methodology: Breakdown Strategy: Short on sustained breaks below $62 with volume Bear Market Rallies: Short rallies to $67-69 resistance zone Target Progression: $60 → $58 → $55 sequential targets Position Management: Scale in on multiple timeframe confirmations Weekly Chart Analysis: Primary Trend: Strongly bearish below $70 weekly resistance Swing Targets: $58-60 zone for major profit-taking Risk Management: Weekly closes above $70 signal potential reversal Monthly Chart Perspective: Secular Range: Multi-year consolidation $45-85 Long-term Targets: $52-58 completion of corrective phase Reversal Zone: $55-60 area for potential major low formation --- Day-by-Day Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025 Monday, September 2, 2025 (Labor Day - Reduced US Participation) Market Conditions: Thin liquidity in US markets, focus on Asian/European sessions Technical Setup: Resistance: $66.00, $67.50, $68.50 Support: $63.00, $61.50, $60.00 Expected Range: $62.50-66.50 Trading Strategy: Reduced Sizes: Holiday conditions warrant smaller positions Range Strategy: Short rallies to $65.50-66.00, long support at $63.00 Gap Management: Monitor overnight developments in Middle East Risk Focus: Geopolitical news sensitivity during thin trading Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Outlook: Full participation returns, inventory data focus Key Events & Strategy: API Inventory: Tuesday evening crude inventory report Technical Focus: $63 support test with volume analysis Geopolitical Monitor: Middle East tensions and OPEC+ developments Entry Strategy: Short $65-66.50 targeting $62-60 Risk Considerations: - Inventory surprise potential for sharp moves - Dollar strength impact on commodity complex - Chinese demand data influence Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Outlook: EIA inventory data and mid-week momentum Strategic Framework: EIA Report: Official US crude inventory data (10:30 AM EST) Technical Pattern: Monitor bear flag completion below $63 Volume Analysis: Institutional participation on breakdowns crucial Support Defense: $62 level critical for preventing accelerated decline Trading Approach: Pre-EIA: Light positioning due to event risk Post-EIA: React to inventory data with appropriate sizing Breakdown Play: Below $62 targets $60-58 zone Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly inventory impact and positioning for Friday Key Considerations: Inventory Digest: Market reaction to Wednesday's EIA data Technical Levels: $60-61 major support zone testing OPEC+ Watch: Monitor for any production policy signals Dollar Correlation: USD strength continuing to pressure commodities Execution Strategy: Trend Continuation: Below $62 favors $58-60 targets Counter-trend Risk: Any rally above $66 likely to be sold Profit Management: Scale out at key support levels Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly close significance and position squaring Final Session Strategy: Weekly Close: Below $62 very bearish, above $66 potentially bullish Profit Protection: Secure gains from successful breakdown trades Weekend Risk: Geopolitical and OPEC+ news flow considerations Position Review: Maintain swing shorts with appropriate stops Critical Levels: Weekly Bearish: Close below $62 Weekly Neutral: $62-66 range Weekly Bullish: Close above $66 --- Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Analysis OPEC+ Production Policy Impact OPEC+ production dynamics remain crucial for oil price direction. The group has left the future of production cuts uncertain after September, with OPEC+ plans to gradually ease 2.2 mb/d of voluntary production cuts by eight countries starting in April 2025. However, geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. pressure on countries like India to stop buying Russian oil, could lead to further changes in OPEC+'s production strategy. US-India Tariff Impact Recent geopolitical developments show significant market impact, with WTI oil prices dropping from $65 to around $62.80 as markets react to new US tariffs on India, triggered by India's ongoing oil trade with Russia. This demonstrates how trade policy directly affects oil pricing dynamics. Supply-Demand Fundamentals Market fundamentals show concerning trends with WTI fluctuating between $54 and $79 amid weak global economic growth, unstable demand in China, and lower production expectations by OPEC+. The EIA projects annual average crude oil production in 2026 will decrease 0.1 million b/d on average from the record in 2025. Key Risk Factors 1. US-China Trade Relations: Demand destruction from economic slowdown 2. Middle East Tensions: Potential supply disruption premium 3. OPEC+ Policy Uncertainty: Production cut extension decisions 4. US Dollar Strength: Inverse correlation with commodity prices 5. Global Economic Growth: Recession fears impacting demand projections --- Seasonal & Cyclical Analysis Historical Seasonal Patterns September Performance: Typically weak, hurricane season concerns Q4 Seasonality: Mixed, depends on winter weather forecasts Refinery Maintenance: September-October maintenance season reduces demand Heating Oil Demand: October-November typically supports complex Economic Cycle Positioning Current Phase: Late cycle with demand concerns mounting Inventory Cycle: Drawing season transitioning to building season Refining Margins: Weak crack spreads indicating demand issues Investment Cycle: Reduced capex affecting future supply growth --- Bull Trap vs Bear Trap Detailed Analysis Current Market Structure Assessment Bull Trap Scenario (75% Probability): Characteristics: Any rally above $67 likely false breakout Volume Profile: Low volume on rallies, high volume on declines Technical Setup: Failed reclaim of key moving averages Fundamental Support: Weak demand and oversupply concerns Target Failure: Rally stops at $68-70 resistance complex Bear Trap Scenario (25% Probability): Characteristics: False breakdown below $62 creating buying opportunity Catalyst Required: Major geopolitical event or supply disruption Volume Confirmation: High volume reversal from $60-62 support Technical Reversal: Hammer or bullish engulfing at key support Breakout Target: $70-75 following trap completion Trap Identification Signals Bull Trap Confirmation: - Break above $67 on declining volume - Immediate reversal within 2-3 trading sessions - High volume selling on subsequent decline - RSI failure to confirm new highs Bear Trap Confirmation: - Sharp spike down to $60-62 on high volume - Quick reversal with gap up formation - Volume expansion on recovery move - Geopolitical catalyst supporting reversal --- Risk Management Comprehensive Framework Position Sizing Methodology Scalping Trades: 0.5-1% account risk per trade Intraday Positions: 1-2% maximum account risk Swing Positions: 2-3% account risk per established position Maximum Exposure: 6-8% total oil-related risk allocation Stop-Loss Implementation Scalping: $0.20-0.40 per barrel maximum Intraday: $0.80-1.50 per barrel based on volatility Swing Trading: Above key resistance levels ($68 for current shorts) Technical Stops: Elliott Wave and pattern invalidation levels Profit-Taking Strategy Scaling Approach: 30% at first target, 40% at second, hold 30% Trailing Stops: Implement after 2:1 favorable movement Time-Based Exits: Close before major inventory reports Pattern-Based: Honor harmonic and Elliott Wave completion zones --- Weekly Outlook Probability Matrix Bearish Scenario (Probability: 70%) Primary Catalysts: - Continued demand concerns from China and global slowdown - Strong US Dollar pressuring commodities - Technical breakdown below $62 support with volume - OPEC+ production increase implementation Price Objectives: - Initial: $60-62 - Extended: $58-60 - Crisis: $54-56 Neutral/Consolidation Scenario (Probability: 20%) Characteristics: - Range-bound trading $60-67 - Mixed inventory data and economic signals - Technical indecision at support levels - OPEC+ policy uncertainty Bullish Scenario (Probability: 10%) Risk Factors: - Major geopolitical event or supply disruption - Significant inventory draw or refinery issues - Technical reversal from $60-62 support zone - Unexpected OPEC+ production cut extension Upside Targets: - Initial: $68-70 - Extended: $72-75 - Crisis Premium: $80+ --- Long-Term Strategic Outlook Multi-Year Price Cycle Oil appears to be in a multi-year consolidation phase between $45-85, with current weakness potentially setting up major low formation in the $55-62 zone for eventual breakout above $85 targeting $110-120 by 2026-2027. Energy Transition Impact Long-term demand concerns from electric vehicle adoption and renewable energy transition continue to cap oil prices, creating ceiling around $85-90 level for sustained periods. --- Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) stands at a critical technical juncture near $64.61, exhibiting strong bearish momentum with potential for further decline toward the $58-60 zone. The confluence of technical breakdown, fundamental weakness, and geopolitical pressures suggests elevated probability for continued selling pressure. Key Bearish Factors: 1. Technical Breakdown: Clear break below $65-66 support zone 2. Fundamental Weakness: Demand concerns and oversupply issues 3. Geopolitical Pressure: US tariff policies affecting global trade 4. Seasonal Factors: Refinery maintenance season reducing demand Critical Monitoring Points: 1. $62 Support Level: Key defense line for bulls 2. Inventory Data: Weekly EIA reports for demand signals 3. OPEC+ Policy: Production cut extension decisions 4. Geopolitical Developments: Middle East tensions and trade policies Strategic Recommendation: Maintain bearish bias with tactical short opportunities on rallies to $66-68 resistance zone. Target $58-60 for major profit-taking while managing risk above $68. Any sustained move above $70 would negate bearish thesis and suggest major reversal beginning. The September-October timeframe represents critical period for direction, with potential for either accelerated decline to $55 or major reversal from $58-62 support complex. --- *This comprehensive analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. Oil trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always implement appropriate risk management and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.* --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by sunya
USOIL Trade Insights📢 NFX Trade Update – FX:USOIL USOIL (WTI-USD) Strong rejection at the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance, with price dropping exactly as expected, confirming the liquidity grab setup. A textbook SMC play. We anticipate further downside on Oil. Our trade is active, and for those who entered around $64.10 (per the last video analysis), you’re already sitting on +350 pips in profit. Looking ahead, I expect price to drop below the EIA entry level and potentially test the $62/barrel zone before Friday’s market close.
GBEBROKERS:USOILShort
by niclaxfx
USOIL Trade Setup📢 NFX Trade Alert – Swing Setup 💹 Instrument: FX:USOIL Crude Oil (WTI-USD) 🛒 Trade Type: Swing – Sell at Market 📍 Entry: $63.50 ⛔ Stop Loss: $64.00 ✅ Target Profit: $60.50 Analysis: Crude Oil turned bearish after failing to hold above the $64.00 resistance. The latest EIA Crude Oil Inventories report (Sep 10, 2025) showed a +3.939M build versus a forecasted -1.900M draw and a previous +2.415M, signaling weaker demand and oversupply pressures. This aligns with the current technical setup: lower highs forming and supply pressure weighing on price action. A rejection around $63.50 opens room for continuation to the $60.50 support zone. Risk remains tight with a stop above $64.00, maintaining a favorable risk-to-reward profile.
GBEBROKERS:USOILShort
by niclaxfx
WTI Crude Oil resistance at 6540The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the resistance, suggesting a further selling pressure within the downtrend. Key resistance is located at 6540, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move. A bearish rejection from 6540 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 6200, followed by 6070 and 6000 over a longer timeframe. Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6540 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6650, then 6830. Conclusion: The short-term outlook remains bearish unless WTI Crude breaks and holds above 6540. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:WTI
by TradeNation
Crude Outlook: sideways moves possible as volatility persistsOil prices ticked higher after OPEC+ approved a modest production increase, reversing earlier cuts and signaling a shift toward market share over price support. While the hike was smaller than in previous months, questions remain over whether members can deliver the extra supply, with some facing limits on output. Geopolitics and China’s stockpiling provide temporary support, but traders are watching inventory data and compliance closely as oversupply risks point to renewed volatility ahead. On the technical side, the price of crude oil has found sufficient support around the $62 area, which has been a price reaction area since mid-August. The moving averages crossed last week, validating the bearish shift in the market, while the Bollinger bands are still quite expanded, showing that there is volatility to support any significant moves in the short term. The Stochastic oscillator seems to be rebounding from the extreme oversold levels, hinting that the recent sideways movement can project to the upcoming sessions if no major catalyst takes place. Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
TVC:USOIL
by antreas_themistokleous_exness
USOIL (WTI) Gann & Harmonic Pattern Points to Major Move!🛢️ 🛢️ USOIL (WTI CRUDE) Points to Major Move! ⚡ 📊 💹 Comprehensive Price Action Strategy | September 2025 Edition 🎯 📈 MARKET SNAPSHOT Asset: USOIL (SPOTCRUDE/WTI CASH) Current Closing Price: $64.413 Date: September 6, 2025 Market Status: 🔴 Critical Support Zone Testing 🎯 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY WTI Crude Oil is currently trading at $64.413, positioned at a crucial technical juncture. Our multi-timeframe analysis reveals a bearish-to-neutral bias with potential for a significant reversal if key support levels hold. The convergence of multiple technical indicators suggests heightened volatility ahead, presenting both risk and opportunity for astute traders. 📊 COMPREHENSIVE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🕯️ Candlestick Pattern Analysis The recent price action has formed a Bullish Hammer pattern at the $64.00 psychological support level, suggesting potential exhaustion of selling pressure. This formation, combined with increasing volume, indicates possible accumulation phase initiation. Key Patterns Identified: - ✅ Bullish Hammer at support - ⚠️ Evening Star formation on 4H chart - 📍 Doji cluster indicating indecision 🌊 Elliott Wave Analysis Current wave count suggests we're completing Wave 5 of a larger corrective structure: Primary Count: Completing Wave C of ABC correction Alternative Count: Wave 4 consolidation before final Wave 5 push Target Zones: - Bullish: $72.50-$74.00 (Wave 5 extension) - Bearish: $58.00-$60.00 (Wave C completion) 📐 Harmonic Patterns A Bullish Bat Pattern is forming on the daily timeframe: - X: $78.45 (Recent High) - A: $61.20 (Recent Low) - B: $71.85 (0.618 Retracement) - C: $64.41 (Current Price) - D: $59.80-$60.50 (Projected - 0.886 XA) Trading Implication: Watch for reversal signals near $60.00 for high-probability long entries. 🔄 Wyckoff Analysis Current market structure suggests: Phase: Potential Spring Test within Trading Range Volume Analysis: Declining volume on recent decline = Lack of selling pressure Smart Money Behavior: Accumulation signals emerging Projected Move: Re-accumulation before markup phase 📊 W.D. Gann Analysis Gann Square of 9 Calculations: - Current Price: $64.413 sits on 225° angle - Next Resistance: $68.00 (270° angle) - Critical Support: $61.00 (180° angle) Gann Time Cycles: - September 15, 2025: Major time pivot ⏰ - September 22, 2025: Secondary cycle completion Gann Fan Analysis: - Price respecting 2x1 angle from July low - Break above 1x1 angle at $66.50 signals trend change ☁️ Ichimoku Cloud Analysis Current Position: Price below cloud - Bearish bias Tenkan-sen: $65.80 (Immediate resistance) Kijun-sen: $67.25 (Major resistance) Cloud Support: $62.00-$63.50 Chikou Span: Bearish, below price 26 periods ago 📉 KEY TECHNICAL INDICATORS 📊 RSI (14-Period) Current Reading: 42.5 Status: Approaching oversold territory Divergence: Bullish divergence forming on 4H chart Signal: Potential reversal zone approaching 📈 Bollinger Bands Upper Band: $68.20 Middle Band (20 SMA): $65.85 Lower Band: $63.50 Current Position: Testing lower band Volatility: Bands contracting - Breakout imminent 💹 VWAP Analysis Daily VWAP: $64.85 Weekly Anchored VWAP: $66.20 Monthly VWAP: $67.50 Volume Profile POC: $65.00 (High volume node) 📊 Moving Averages Confluence 20 EMA: $65.85 ⬇️ 50 SMA: $67.20 ⬇️ 100 EMA: $69.50 ⬇️ 200 SMA: $71.00 ⬇️ Status: Death cross on daily (50/200) - Bearish medium-term 🎯 TRADING STRATEGY ⚡ INTRADAY TRADING (5M-1H) LONG SETUP 🟢 Entry Zone: $63.80-$64.20 Stop Loss: $63.40 (-1%) Target 1: $64.80 (+1.5%) Target 2: $65.40 (+2.5%) Target 3: $66.00 (+3.5%) Risk/Reward: 1:3.5 SHORT SETUP 🔴 Entry Zone: $65.60-$65.90 Stop Loss: $66.30 (-1%) Target 1: $65.00 (-1.5%) Target 2: $64.40 (-2.5%) Target 3: $63.80 (-3.5%) Risk/Reward: 1:3.5 📈 SWING TRADING (4H-DAILY) BULLISH SCENARIO 🚀 Entry: $64.00-$64.50 (Current levels) Stop Loss: $61.50 (-4%) Target 1: $68.00 (+5.5%) Target 2: $72.00 (+11.8%) Target 3: $75.50 (+17.2%) Position Size: 2% portfolio risk BEARISH SCENARIO 📉 Entry: $65.80-$66.20 (Resistance retest) Stop Loss: $67.50 (+2%) Target 1: $62.00 (-6%) Target 2: $59.50 (-10%) Target 3: $57.00 (-14%) Position Size: 1.5% portfolio risk 🗓️ WEEKLY FORECAST Monday-Tuesday (Sept 9-10) 📅 - Expected Range: $63.50-$65.80 - Bias: Neutral with bullish undertone - Key Level: Watch $64.00 support hold Wednesday-Thursday (Sept 11-12) 📅 - Expected Range: $64.00-$67.00 - Bias: Potential breakout day - Catalyst: EIA Inventory Data Friday (Sept 13) 📅 - Expected Range: $65.00-$68.50 - Bias: Trend continuation - Note: Options expiry volatility 🌍 MARKET CONTEXT & FUNDAMENTALS Geopolitical Factors 🌐 - ⚠️ Middle East tensions supporting price floor - 🇨🇳 China demand concerns capping upside - 🇺🇸 SPR refill discussions providing support Supply/Demand Dynamics ⚖️ - OPEC+ production cuts extended - US shale production moderating - Global inventory draws accelerating Economic Indicators 📊 - Dollar Index weakening (Bullish for Oil) - Global growth concerns (Bearish pressure) - Inflation expectations rising (Supportive) ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT Position Sizing Guidelines 💰 Intraday: Max 1-2% account risk per trade Swing: Max 3-5% account risk per position Correlation Risk: Monitor energy sector exposure Stop Loss Strategies 🛡️ 1. ATR-Based: 1.5x ATR from entry 2. Structure-Based: Below/above key S/R levels 3. Time-Based: Exit if no movement in 2-3 candles Risk Factors ⚠️ - 🔴 Break below $61.50 invalidates bullish thesis - 🔴 Unexpected OPEC+ policy changes - 🔴 Rapid Dollar strengthening - 🟢 Surprise inventory draws - 🟢 Geopolitical escalation 🎯 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH SUPPORT LEVELS 🟢 S1: $63.50 (Immediate) S2: $61.50 (Critical) S3: $59.00 (Major) S4: $57.00 (Yearly Low) RESISTANCE LEVELS 🔴 R1: $65.80 (Immediate) R2: $67.25 (Daily 50MA) R3: $69.50 (Daily 100MA) R4: $72.00 (Major) 💡 PRO TRADING TIPS 1. 🎯 Best Entry Times: London/NY overlap (8-11 AM EST) 2. 📊 Volume Confirmation: Look for >20% above average 3. 🔄 Correlation Trades: Monitor USD/CAD inverse relationship 4. ⏰ Avoid Trading: 30 mins before/after EIA releases 5. 📈 Scale Strategy: Add to winners, not losers 🔮 MONTH-END PRICE TARGETS September 2025 Projections: Bullish Target: $72.00-$74.00 🎯 Base Case: $66.00-$68.00 📊 Bearish Target: $58.00-$60.00 📉 Probability Assessment: - Bullish Scenario: 35% 📈 - Base Case: 45% ➡️ - Bearish Scenario: 20% 📉 📌 CONCLUSION & ACTION PLAN USOIL presents a compelling risk/reward opportunity at current levels. The confluence of technical support at $64.00, combined with oversold conditions and potential harmonic pattern completion, suggests a tactical long position with tight risk management is warranted. Recommended Strategy: 1. Primary: Accumulate long positions $63.50-$64.50 2. Alternative: Wait for breakout above $66.00 for momentum trades 3. Hedge: Consider put options if below $61.50 📝 TRADING CHECKLIST Before entering any position: - ✅ Confirm volume supports move - ✅ Check RSI for divergences - ✅ Verify multiple timeframe alignment - ✅ Set stop loss before entry - ✅ Calculate position size - ✅ Review correlation with DXY - ✅ Check economic calendar - ✅ Assess market sentiment 🏷️ *Last Updated: September 6, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4* 🔔 Follow for daily updates and real-time trading signals! For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by sunya
WTI 4HTrading Outlook for the Upcoming Week In this series of analyses, we review trading perspectives and short-term outlooks. As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone near the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to—or breakout from—this zone will determine the next price movement toward the specified levels. Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight key levels ahead of the price and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
CFI:WTI
by esmaeilesmaeilzade_fx