$SPY (S&P 500 ETF Trust)🔍 Chart Context
Ticker: AMEX:SPY (S&P 500 ETF Trust)
Timeframe: 15-minute
Indicators Visible: Smart Money concepts (liquidity, premium/discount zones), trend lines, volume profile, moving averages.
Notable Zones:
Premium (red block): Major supply zone where price rejected.
Discount demand (blue blocks): Areas where buyers previously stepped in.
Entry marked (yellow line): Short trade setup.
🧭 Technical Read
Price Structure
After a strong rally, SPY rejected from the premium zone near $661–$663.
Multiple wicks show supply absorption → sellers defending that region.
The chart shows a lower high forming below the red block.
Volume / Liquidity
Spikes in volume align with sharp rejections → signs of smart money distribution.
Equilibrium zone highlighted suggests market balancing before choosing direction.
Trade Setup
You’ve marked “Taking this entry” just under the consolidation → short bias.
Target likely at the discount demand zone ($657–$656).
Risk above the supply premium block ($662–$663).
📈 Catalysts to Watch
Macro: Fed rate cuts are heavily speculated, but recent strength may already be priced in. Any hawkish remarks or delayed cuts = bearish catalyst.
Options Flow: If put OI clusters around 655–657 build, downside pressure will accelerate.
Data Releases: CPI/PPI, jobless claims, or Fed speeches could act as volatility triggers.
⚖️ Probability Outlook
Bearish short-term (next 1–3 sessions): 60% chance we test 657–656 demand.
Neutral consolidation: 25% chance price chops sideways around 659 before a bigger move.
Bullish invalidation: 15% chance we break above 663, targeting 665–667 liquidity.
