SPY's Final Wall: The Bearish ThesisRight now, SPY is facing the most significant confluence of resistance trend lines it has seen in years. Think of this as the ultimate ceiling—a multi-layered wall that the bulls have to smash through.
The market's parabolic move has pushed the price to this critical point. But here's the thesis: the combined strength of these converging trend lines is just too much. The buying power is exhausted.
We believe this is a classic rollover setup. Instead of a breakout to new highs, we expect a strong rejection from this level. The price will hit this solid wall of resistance and turn over, leading to a significant pullback.
The current price isn't a simple pause; it's a test of strength that the bulls are likely to fail.
Day Trade/Swing Trade Idea: Short at red arrow and cover at the green arrow
SPY trade ideas
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 12, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 12, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Markets digest 🚩 CPI + ECB shocks — Friday closes the week with sentiment checks.
🚩 Consumer mood in focus: UMich prelim survey drives inflation expectations + spending tone.
📦 Trade & price gauges: Import/export prices fill in the inflation picture post-CPI/PPI.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Import & Export Prices (Aug)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Sept)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #UMich #inflation #Fed #consumer #bonds #economy
$SPY to $666-$672 before downside?AMEX:SPY continues to move higher here and with a widening ichi cloud. Because of that, I think it potentially has another move to the upside over the next week or two.
I think the most likely levels from here for AMEX:SPY to find resistance are between $666-672.
After that, I'd get cautious as I think there's going to be a surprise downside move that will catch many people off guard back to one of the support levels marked off on the charts.
Let's see how it plays out in the coming weeks.
Natural Gas Inventories Today: What You Need To KnowNatural gas is currently holding the 50 Moving average.
Inventories come out tomorrow and could make or break this trend.
I'm keeping it simple and looking for shorts below the 50 MA and longs above.
Nat Gas inventories estimate is 69B build.
Right now the EMA weekly 113 is a tough resistance level.
Consolidation would be best in this commodity to help support the next leg higher.
Q4 2025 FULL Market Analysis And InsightFULL STOCK MARKET AND CRYPTO Q4 UPDATE!
Created And Developed By Joeseph Emanuel Dennis 9/10/25
SPY: As of now we are headed towards Q4 of this year market is anticipating the odds of a rate cut from the federal reserve. This important event takes place next Wednesday I'm expected a 50 BPS cut which could lead to a short term sell off also known as a sell the news event in which markets experience a quick slight drop only to shake out retail followed by bought up dips from more sophisticated individuals. According to the weekly chart SPY has been in an uptrend possibly due for a slight correction downwards which I believe will be followed by the end of year rally I'm setting a target of $700. The Fed is entering a quantive easing stance behaving differently from their tighting cycle as they started in 2022 due to inflation since then inflation has been coming down reaching near their 2% mandate goal however with the new administration the concerns due to tariff fears are rising as the fed stated it would monitor the situation closely stating " Tariffs could have a temporary inflation spike" we will likely see this affect in 2026. Overall bullish on the MAG 7 as major institutions are loading up on big tech and earnings have exceeded expectations.
CRYPTO:
MY prediction is the crypto market cap will reach above 8 trillion as we enter Q4 of this year it's looking like we will top around that or perhaps higher. The Weekly on BTC is overall bearish trying to close that bottom hopefully giving the green signal once that gets confirmed my target for year end is $150,000 for BTC as history has shown us, we are in the last stages of this bull market despite all the volatility we have experienced this year it's been an overall resilient market. Once the rates get cut money will pour out of money market funds (Currently holding 7 Trillion) and poured into the markets and major investors will look for the hottest thing and the best thing on the market right now in order to make the best returns and currently its Ethereum! With the current innovation being done on stable coins and tokenization of stocks ETH has been the building block and the foundation of this financial change with new financial instruments being issued such as treasury companies the real value and demand for ETH is being clearly shown across WALLSTREET as the main holder of ETH Bitmine has currently priced ETH at $15,000 year end along with Sharplink Gaming accumulating ETH daily the evidence of a future supply shock followed by a price surge is there! Ignore the noise and unfollow those emotional accounts we are going so much higher and don't be fooled thinking we wont see a bear market because think again! Once we get there well discuss shorting until then my targets are as follows.
BTC: $150,000
ETH: $10,000
SOL: $500
Bitmine: $150-250
SPY: $700
This market is about to go insane load the boat now!
s3.tradingview.com
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 CPI Day: August Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM — the main macro print of the week.
🚩 ECB Decision: 8:15 AM ET — Europe’s call on rates adds global cross-asset volatility.
📉 Labor + growth mix: Jobless claims alongside CPI sharpen the Fed outlook.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ECB Rate Decision
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (CPI, Aug)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #CPI #ECB #inflation #Fed #jobs #bonds #economy
Impending bearish pushBear: looking at the adx indicator, we are very low on trend strength on the daily and 4h timeframe of AMEX:SPY . There is room for some more upside to possibly test ath around 652. I believe it will go up to test before it has a pullback again but that being said, adx is low, there are many touches of bearish divergence (lower rsi peaks : higher price points), and we have not seen much drastic big candles in a while. Its important to note that rate cuts are ALREADY priced in. We are forward looking ALREADY. I do not think it impossible that we see a pullback around rate decision or sooner. The current immediate 4h and 1h trend is steep (showing possible exhaustion incoming) especially with all the indicators showing momentum consolidating or slowing down - which could be a possible reversal signal. WATCH ath and the immediate reaction in the days coming.
Bull: Fib extension gives upward price points at 653.52 and even up at 659.09. I think its more possible to combine bearish with bullish thesis and say we will hit the 653.52 then drop- we might just bounce after the drop (which may not be very big). We are in a unique environment with policy and an administration that favors the biggest players in our market. It's silly to expect any SIGNIFICANT downside unless something fundamental *global or political happens. I see pullbacks but nothing like April.
simply put, we are going up there's no stopping that the market is A-symmetrical. However, there are points where I can predict high probability exhaustion and reversals in the coming days and week. aka pullback incoming. Watch all time highs and the adx once it starts to curve up.
SPY Elliott Wave Outlook: Wave (3) Nearing TerminationThe short-term Elliott Wave outlook for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) highlights a cycle starting from the August 1 low. This cycle is unfolding as a diagonal and nears completion. The initial wave ((i)) peaked at 647.04 after the August 1 low. A pullback in wave ((ii)) dropped to 634.92, forming a running flat Elliott Wave. From the wave ((i)) high, wave (a) fell to 632.95. Wave (b) then rose to 649.79. Wave (c) declined to 634.92, finishing wave ((ii)) at a higher degree.
The ETF climbed further in wave ((iii)) to 652.21. A pullback in wave ((iv)) reached 643.33. We expect wave ((v)) to push higher, completing wave 5 of (3). After this, a larger degree wave (4) pullback should occur. A final leg, wave (5), will likely follow to end the cycle from the April 2025 low.
In the near term, the pivot at 634.92 must hold. If it does, dips should find support at the 3, 7, or 11 swing levels. This support will pave the way for more upside. Traders can watch these levels closely for confirmation of the ongoing trend. The outlook suggests a structured advance with clear targets ahead.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 PPI Hits: August Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM — critical input for inflation trend into CPI (Thu).
📈 Yields in focus: Bond market watching supply + inflation mix; $TLT/ TVC:TNX extra sensitive.
💬 Fed chatter: Post-Apple event, markets shift back to Fed data dependency into next week’s FOMC.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Aug)
⏰ 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly)
⏰ 10:30 AM — EIA Petroleum Status Report
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PPI #inflation #Fed #bonds #energy #economy
SPY Swing Market Update - 09.09.25📅 Date & Time
Date: 9th September 2025
Time: 21:20 UTC
🏦 Market Context
U.S. markets remain near record highs with Fed rate cut bets fueling optimism.
Tech sector leadership continues, with Broadcom’s surge reflecting AI-driven demand.
Gold and Oil hold strong as safe-haven plays.
🎭 Behavioural Lens
Retail: Growing impatient inside chop, chasing false starts.
Institutions: Calmly absorbing supply at key base levels, waiting for confirmation.
📊 Current Structure
Support Base: 632 zone continues as the critical institutional anchor.
Resistance Ceiling: 652–655 consolidation cap.
State: Market in preparation phase (CZ equilibrium).
📊 Structural Meaning of a Break Above 652–655
This zone is the Ceiling where both buyers and sellers have been battling.
A clean break above it means:
Institutions have absorbed all selling pressure.
Retail short positions inside the range will be trapped and forced to cover.
Liquidity shifts → trend expansion.
🔮 Projection Scenarios
Primary Path (≈80%):
Break above 652–655 → expansion to 665–670, with extension toward 680–685.
Secondary Path (≈20%):
Break → retest of 652–655 as new floor → continuation upward.
Low Probability Path:
False Breakout → return inside Consolidation Zone, delays expansion but does not reverse the bigger trend unless 632 base collapses.
🔮 Projection After Break
Primary Path (≈80%):
Price accelerates higher, forming a new growth leg.
First expansion target: 665–670 zone (next liquidity pocket).
Beyond that, structure opens pathway to 680–685 zone.
Secondary Path (≈20%):
Short pullback → retest of 652–655 ceiling as new floor, then continuation upward.
Invalidation:
If breakout fails and price falls back into the 652–655 box, it signals a false breakout trap (FBX). That would delay expansion but not reverse the bigger trend unless the 632 base breaks.
📉 Pullback Watch
Shallow defense: 640–642
Medium defense: 635–638
Deep invalidation: 628–630
🏆 Final View
Bias: Bullish–Neutral.
Institutions remain in control. A clean break of 652–655 confirms the next expansion phase.
Until 632 collapses, the destiny remains upward.
🧠 Essence
“If 652–655 breaks, the ceiling becomes the new floor. Institutions ride the expansion, retail chases late.”
⚠️ Disclaimer
This research is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice or investment recommendation.
Role of Central Banks in Global Markets1. Historical Evolution of Central Banks
1.1 Early Origins
The first central banks emerged in the 17th century, such as the Swedish Riksbank (1668) and the Bank of England (1694), to stabilize currencies and finance governments.
Initially, their role was limited to issuing banknotes and managing public debt.
1.2 Gold Standard Era
During the 19th and early 20th centuries, central banks were tasked with maintaining currency values under the gold standard.
Stability of international trade depended on these institutions’ ability to maintain fixed exchange rates.
1.3 Post-War Bretton Woods System
After World War II, the Bretton Woods agreement (1944) tied major currencies to the U.S. dollar, with the dollar convertible to gold.
Central banks became guardians of exchange rate stability.
1.4 Modern Role (Post-1971)
With the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1971, currencies floated freely.
Central banks shifted focus to inflation targeting, financial stability, and macroeconomic management.
Today, their influence extends beyond national borders into global capital flows and markets.
2. Core Functions of Central Banks in Global Markets
2.1 Monetary Policy
Central banks set interest rates and regulate money supply to achieve price stability and economic growth. Their policies influence:
Global capital flows: Higher U.S. interest rates often attract funds from emerging markets.
Exchange rates: Monetary tightening usually strengthens domestic currency.
Investment decisions: Global investors closely follow central bank policies to allocate capital.
2.2 Lender of Last Resort
During crises, central banks provide emergency liquidity to banks and financial institutions.
Example: During the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the U.S. Fed and ECB provided trillions in liquidity through swap lines, stabilizing global markets.
2.3 Financial Stability Oversight
Central banks regulate banks and oversee payment systems to prevent systemic risks.
They monitor asset bubbles, excessive lending, and foreign capital volatility.
2.4 Exchange Rate Management
Emerging market central banks (e.g., RBI, PBoC) often intervene in forex markets to prevent excessive volatility.
Exchange rate policy impacts global trade competitiveness.
2.5 Reserve Management
Central banks hold foreign exchange reserves, including U.S. dollars, euros, gold, and bonds, to support their currencies.
Their demand for U.S. Treasuries or euro-denominated assets influences global bond yields.
3. Tools of Central Banks
3.1 Interest Rate Policy
Policy rates (Fed Funds Rate, ECB refinancing rate, RBI repo rate) influence borrowing costs worldwide.
Rate hikes in advanced economies often trigger capital outflows from emerging markets.
3.2 Open Market Operations (OMO)
Buying or selling government securities to manage liquidity.
Large-scale OMO, known as Quantitative Easing (QE), became prominent post-2008.
3.3 Reserve Requirements
Mandating banks to hold a percentage of deposits as reserves.
Impacts credit availability in domestic and global markets.
3.4 Forward Guidance
Central banks provide communication on future policy intentions to influence market expectations.
Example: The Fed’s signals about interest rates guide global equity and bond markets.
3.5 Currency Interventions
Buying or selling foreign currency to stabilize exchange rates.
Example: The Swiss National Bank intervenes to prevent excessive franc appreciation.
4. Influence of Major Central Banks on Global Markets
4.1 U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)
The most influential central bank due to the U.S. dollar’s role as the global reserve currency.
Fed decisions on rates and QE directly affect:
Global bond yields
Commodity prices (oil, gold)
Emerging market capital flows
4.2 European Central Bank (ECB)
Oversees the euro, the second most traded currency.
ECB policies influence European bond markets, trade flows, and global investor sentiment.
4.3 Bank of Japan (BoJ)
Known for ultra-low interest rates and Yield Curve Control (YCC).
Impacts global carry trades, where investors borrow in yen and invest in higher-yielding markets.
4.4 People’s Bank of China (PBoC)
Manages the yuan and China’s monetary policy.
Its decisions affect global supply chains, commodity demand, and emerging markets.
4.5 Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
Plays a vital role in stabilizing one of the largest emerging economies.
RBI interventions impact Asian capital markets and forex stability.
5. Central Banks During Crises
5.1 Global Financial Crisis (2008)
The Fed cut rates to near zero and launched QE.
ECB and BoJ followed with liquidity measures.
Central banks coordinated globally, stabilizing markets.
5.2 Eurozone Debt Crisis (2010-12)
ECB’s “Whatever it takes” pledge by Mario Draghi restored investor confidence.
Prevented collapse of European bond markets.
5.3 COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
Central banks injected unprecedented liquidity.
Rates were cut to historic lows.
Asset purchase programs kept markets afloat despite global lockdowns.
6. Challenges Faced by Central Banks
6.1 Balancing Inflation and Growth
Rising inflation post-pandemic forced central banks to hike rates aggressively.
Risk of recession vs. inflation control is a constant trade-off.
6.2 Global Spillovers
A Fed rate hike strengthens the dollar, hurting emerging markets through capital flight and debt pressures.
6.3 Political Pressures
Governments often pressure central banks to support growth, risking their independence.
6.4 Digital Currencies & Technology
Rise of cryptocurrencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) is changing the financial landscape.
Central banks must balance innovation with regulation.
6.5 Geopolitical Tensions
Sanctions and de-dollarization efforts challenge the U.S. Fed’s dominance.
Energy shocks and wars complicate policy decisions.
7. Future of Central Banks in Global Markets
7.1 Greater Coordination
Global challenges like climate change, pandemics, and financial contagion may require more coordinated action among central banks.
7.2 Digital Transformation
Adoption of CBDCs could redefine cross-border payments, reducing reliance on the dollar.
7.3 Green Finance Role
Central banks may support climate-friendly investments by adjusting reserve requirements or collateral frameworks.
7.4 Rebalancing Power
Emerging market central banks like PBoC and RBI will gain more influence as their economies grow.
Conclusion
Central banks are no longer confined to their domestic economies—they are global market architects. Their monetary policies, interventions, and crisis-management tools shape the movement of capital, trade, and currencies worldwide.
From the Fed’s dominance in global finance to the ECB’s stabilizing role in Europe, and from the BoJ’s ultra-loose policies to the PBoC’s yuan management, these institutions collectively form the backbone of global financial stability.
However, their journey is fraught with challenges—rising inflation, geopolitical risks, digital disruption, and climate imperatives. The future role of central banks will demand not just economic stewardship but also global cooperation, adaptability, and resilience.
In essence, central banks remain the invisible hand guiding global markets, making them indispensable players in the world economy.
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Small Biz Pulse: NFIB report before the open — insight into hiring & inflation expectations.
🍏 Apple Mega-Cap Event: 1 PM ET — expected iPhone 17 lineup, Apple Watch, AirPods updates. Mega-cap headline risk for NASDAQ:AAPL and $XLK.
📉 Tape Watch: Traders positioning ahead of 🚩 PPI (Wed) and 🚩 CPI (Thu).
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Jul, rev.)
⏰ 🍏 1:00 PM — Apple Product Launch Event
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #AAPL #AppleEvent #NFIB #inflation #tech #MegaCap
The Daily 200 MA Is The KeyRegarding how price action will play out over these next couple months, there's 3 likely scenarios, and it involves how price will interaction with the daily 200 MA:
BLUE: Price makes a convincing break above the daily 200 MA, retests it, and then surges onward, continuing the long-term bullish trend.
PURPLE: Price falsely breaks above the daily 200 MA and tests the 600 psychological level, rejects it, and falls back below the daily 200 MA and retests it, thus creating a H&S pattern and confirming the continuation of the bearish trend.
RED: Price rejects the daily 200 MA, and continues the bearish trend, ultimately forming a new low.
SPY Play 9/8/25Look for break of PMH and hold for CALLS and Break of PML for PUTS. It is also in a channel which provides more confirmation if it breaks either side. It appear to be forming a Bear Flag on the 15 min. So be cautious and wait first 15-30 mins. If PUTS look for SPY to come down to 646.17 if it breaks and hold that with volume SPY maybe headed to 643 territory. But in all things do your due diligence and be patient. Let the trade prove to you which direction. the range as of now is 647.84-648.98 - no trade between this range. If it decides to do calls look for 649.49-9 as first TP and if it go pass that look to recapture PDH. Let's Go. #YouGotOptions
“Discipline in trading is doing what your plan says even when your emotions scream otherwise. Consistency beats impulse every time.”
SPY Market Preview for Monday, September 8
Price Action & Market Structure
* SPY is trading around 648.4, consolidating inside a rising channel after bouncing from 644 HVL support.
* Momentum has slowed after rejecting near 649–650, but structure is still constructive as long as price holds above 646–645.
* Market bias remains neutral-to-bullish unless 644 breaks.
Key Levels
* Resistance (Upside Caps):
* 649–650 → Immediate resistance zone.
* 651–652 → Strong Call Wall / Gamma resistance.
* 653–655 → Higher extension levels.
* Support (Downside Floors):
* 646.0 HVL → Key balance level.
* 645.0–644.0 → Strong support cluster.
* 643.0–640.0 → Put Walls / deeper cushion.
Options Sentiment (GEX & IV)
* GEX: Bearish skew, with Puts 117.6% dominating positioning.
* IVR: 11.6, relatively low → options market not expecting extreme moves.
* Gamma Walls:
* 652–653 = Strong Call resistance.
* 646–644 = Strong support zone.
Indicators
* MACD (15m): Rolling bearish after early strength, showing momentum fading.
* Stoch RSI: Resetting lower, oversold zone nearing, could support bounce if 646 holds.
Scenarios for Today
Bullish Case (if 646–645 holds):
* Defend 646–645 support, push through 649–650.
* Targets: 651–652 → 653–655.
Bearish Case (if 646 fails):
* Breakdown under 646–645, move into 644 HVL.
* If 644 breaks → accelerated downside toward 643–640.
Trading Thoughts
* Longs: Buy dips near 646–645, targeting 650–652, stops below 644.
* Shorts: Fade rejection at 650–652, stops above 653.
* Stops:
* Longs → below 644.
* Shorts → above 653.
Summary
SPY sits at a pivotal mid-zone (646–650). Holding this range favors upside continuation into 652–655, but options positioning (Put heavy) warns of downside hedging pressure. A clean break under 646–644 flips momentum bearish into 640.
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Always manage risk properly.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Sept 8 → Sept 12, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Sept 8 → Sept 12, 2025 🔮
🌍 Themes
🚩 Inflation week: PPI (Wed), CPI (Thu) drive the Fed path.
🏦 Fed watch: Data into the Sept FOMC; ECB decision adds global spillovers.
💬 Sentiment wrap: UMich (Fri) gives the consumer read.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
Mon 9/8
⏰ 3:00 PM — Consumer Credit (G.19)
Tue 9/9
⏰ 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug)
Wed 9/10
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — PPI (Aug)
Thu 9/11
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — CPI (Aug)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
⏰ 8:15 AM — ECB Rate Decision (global cross-asset driver)
Fri 9/12
⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Sep)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #CPI #PPI #Fed #ECB #jobs #consumer #bonds #Dollar
$SPY Watchlist Ticker: SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)
All-Time High Reference: SPY hit a record close at $649.12 on Sept 4, 2025, with an intraday peak around $652.21. That’s the level we’re watching.
Catalysts on Deck
Retail Sales (Mon, 6/17): Strong numbers = more fuel for the bulls. Weak print = pressure on consumer strength, could weigh on SPY.
Unemployment Claims (Tue, 6/18): Clean data here can push risk-on. A spike in claims could bring some hesitation into the market.
Why We Don’t Trade CHOP
If you zoom out to the 30m–1h, price has just been moving sideways. No clean trend, no conviction. Trading that kind of action is low probability:
Breakouts fail more often than not.
Noise > signal.
Risk/reward doesn’t make sense without direction.
Bottom line: we wait for momentum. If there’s no momentum, we don’t force it.
Game Plan
Bullish setup: Gap filled and bounced at 635.01. As long as we hold trend, look for calls back toward ATH. A clean break above ~652 with volume = room to run 655–660+.
Bearish setup: Only if we see a hard rejection near highs. Watch 635 as first support, then 620 if things pull back.
Bias remains bullish. We’re in an uptrend, we’re near highs, and catalysts this week will decide if we get continuation or stall out. Stay patient, let the levels play out.
SPY A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 647.22
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 642.31
Recommended Stop Loss - 649.96
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Stock Market is in Risk OnSubscribe and don't miss next ideas
The US market, as well as some assets, is in a risk-on mode.
Most assets have their own seasonality.
The chart above shows one of them:
In recent years, in the period July-September, a correction began on the US market.
A number of macro indicators also speak in favor of a correction and that it is overdue.
Risk appetite according to Morgan Stanley research has reached a historical maximum
Although seasonality does not guarantee a correction right here and now, but at least it gives reason to think about reducing long positions
SPY Outlook – Key Levels & ProbabilitiesSPY Outlook – Key Levels & Probabilities
SPY is sitting on a rising trendline and testing the 647 zone near the .618 retracement. Market structure shows a tug-of-war between bulls holding trend support and sellers guarding supply overhead.
🔑 Levels to Watch
Support: 645–643 (trendline + Fib cluster), deeper at 639.3
Resistance: 651–653 supply zone, breakout target 658 (Fib extension)
Liquidity Pools: 630–628 if support fails
📊 Probabilities
Bullish Case (60%) → Hold above 643 → upside push into 652–658
Bearish Case (40%) → Break below 643 → drop toward 639, possibly 630–628
🎯 Trade Map
Long setup: Enter near 645–643, stop below 641, targets 652 → 658
Short setup: Fade rejection at 652–653, stop above 654, target 639
⚡Bias remains bullish while above 643. A clean break below flips the script bearish.