WHEATS ON A RUNPART OF THE PLAN
price
action
resistance
trapped
order blok
fairvaluegap
touch of fibwedge LEV 2
hammer
engulfing candle stick pattern
price action
leverage
accumalation
negotiate is the exit
I want to show everyone that making money is easy but bring profitable constantly throught out each trade u got to understand the full phrase and the physco logic behind this PHRASE
if u can put this all in one u wouldn't loose a trade and you would know wen to get in the market at any pregiven time
this is my 1st photo publish
WHEAT trade ideas
WheatUSD Oanda Buying Breakout Trend ContinuesRealising my folly from my previous trade, I recognised my faults.
Recap -
1st - I traded with the Higher Time Frame and Entry Time Frame Trends, but I am actually entering on a opposing trend against the Lower Time Frame, and that is why the price never move in my intended direction after hours.
The opposing trend movement is also a sign that price is tanking, and that the Big Boys might not be into this product anymore.
2nd - Trade Breakout Trends was my thang. But I subconsciously/consciously shifted my setups to Trend Following which is to buy high and sell higher. Low winrate, needs to gather a ton of trades before the results show, stressful way to trade. I recognised my fault and now I shifted myself back to Breakout Trends.
I would like to add on also that, I would see this as a price game instead of a time frame game. But I also recognise that 50/60MA on the 15Minutes Time Frame is very powerful, and I called it Duck Hunting and I would be hunting ducks again, on the 15 Minutes Time Frame.
Would I trade on the 4H Time Frame or the Hourly? It's a price game so as long as the price is right, and it aligns with my point 1 and 2, I would.
2019SGT
22052024
Wheat: double-top then back to fundamentals or La Nina concerns?Wheat has completed five Elliot waves up and with bearish fundamentals on the ground remaining, an ABC correction may now be in order.
If the rally has in fact exhausted itself, then a double-top which has often followed wheat rallies would not be unusual here. The conditions for another bounce off shorter time frame averages to yesterday's highs to form that double-top appear to be in play.
However, if La Nina worries persist, then the market may stabilize as it meets the rising 20 day MA and new highs could be in play. The Golden Cross about to be formed by the daily 50MA crossing up over the 200MA would give these climate/weather concerns form.
Not financial advice and you trade at your own risk.
Wheat: Megaphone down wave vs impending Golden CrossOn wheat's daily chart, the rally appears to have completed 5 Elliot waves up. Bearish fundamentals of current ample supply may now play out in an ABC correction, though how deep with a La Nina expected to affect Russia it remains to be seen.
Beyond an ABC correction, it's possible to consider that said bearish fundamentals may see an impulse all the way down to the lower megaphone structure line. The problem with this scenario is the time it would take to get down there. If La Nina is to play a part this Northern hemisphere growing season, then it's affects on the market will be felt sooner.
The probability a drop that significant may be further weakened by the impending Golden Cross of the daily 50MA crossing up over the 200MA. TA indicators like this may not yet reflect bearish current fundamentals of supply, but make sense in terms of the pricing in of a La Nina event.
Not financial advice; trade at your own risk.
Wheat in Elliot Waves pt.2: Fifth wave completed?Wheat saw another bullish end to the week after a favorable USDA report.
In the last post, we looked in TA terms at whether the current rally's first impulse occurred in March or on April 19th. The latter (in pink numbers) seems to have been the case as we saw the 5th wave up to near the 2.618 Fib. If this analysis continues to hold true, TA wise an ABC correction down may soon occur. This correction should also reflect the current supply side bearish fundamentals of the grain and it will be interesting to see how deep it goes. However, if the ABC down is somewhat shallow, this could suggest the continued accumulation of a bullish trend, with adverse weather and or climate anomalies the main concern going forwards.
Another reason to suspect this coming correction may be shallow is the now imminent Golden Cross of the daily 50MA in orange and 200MA in white. While events like the crossing of moving averages are not certain things, they do indicate trend direction and are worth considering here. Remember though, that supply fundamentals remain currently bearish and a correction will have to reflect that at some stage.
In terms of those weather/climate concerns, market analysts (link below) have identified that the expected return of the La Nina weather system in the coming months historically means drought in Russia, the largest producer. This in turn may significantly reduce yield in Russia and affect global prices. This demonstrates the fickle and thus volatile nature of grains, as the same analysts were pointing out in early March how Russian oversupply, some of it stolen from Ukraine, was continuing to strangle the market. Furthermore, it should not be forgotten that this will be a climate change La Nina, meaning it may prove unpredictable and thus volatile on markets.
www.grainbrokers.com.au
Not financial advice and you trade at your own risk.
Wheat in Elliot Waves: rally's first impulse?Wheat has rallied since April 19 due to short covering and various weather concerns, and various analysts expect the grain to return sooner or later to the fundamentals ample supply.
From an Elliot Waves perspective on a daily chart, it's possible to see a 5 wave structure marked in yellow 1-5. However, while the rally proper began on April 19, it's not completely clear whether that first major impulse was actually wave 3 (yellow), with wave 1 starting on March 8. If that's the case, then recent highs complete the 5th wave and we can now expect a B and C wave down. But if April 19th actually marked the first wave, then TA-wise there may yet be another impulse up for wave 5. In this scenario, the 2.618 Fib may become the next resistance.
As fickle weather has largely been responsible for the rally, it's worth considering that an actual crop-affecting climate anomaly in the coming months due to increasingly volatile climate change may not yet be priced in.
Not financial advise of any kind and you trade at own risk.
WHEATUSD: Hidden Bullish Divergence at Previous Support LevelWheat first went up after a long period of preparation to hit and complete a Bullish .886 Harmonic BAMM before then coming back down, and now it looks like it wants to bounce back up from the same area due to there being Monthly Hidden Bullish Divergence at the Previous area of Support, though this time I will be targeting a relatively lower high such as the .786 retrace.
WHEAT/USD Short• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value and the majority of the move isn't impulsive, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break on either the one hour or the fifteen minute chart, or after a one hour rejection from it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
WHEAT/USD Short• If price corrects and a larger one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
WHEAT/USD Short• If price corrects and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get short with a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Wheat to find support before bounceAfter the initial spike induced from the war creating a higher demand in wheat, we are now seeing a pullback from the highs.
Fibonacci levels line up pretty well with resistance and consolidation levels.
Good support around the $6.8 to $7 with first resistance being at the $8 level and heavy resistance at the $8.50 mark.
Keep in mind that after very quick moves one direction we typically see the same type of movement in the opposite direction.
Best advice is wait for support to appear and breaking of trend to get in.
Something is happening with Wheat futuresWheat got nuked in late May, as it re-tested the high. It did a full retrace, -36%. Impressive even for meme stocks let alone one of the most precious commodities on the planet.
Wheat has spent Jul and Aug in the area of intense demand, which just happens to be around EMA(100) , from what I can see everyone is waiting for first harvest numbers to start sending futures higher.
I'm expecting explosive few weeks, perhaps even hitting $12 again before the first snows in the northern hemisphere.
The monthly chart is even more explicit:
Wheat Price hit 2008 financial crises highWheat Price hit 2008 financial crises high.
the consequences of the Russian-Ukraine, in addition to the fact that the world economy has been already suffering for the Covid19 economic consequences "like inflation and increase in shipping price, wheat prices are now hitting 2008 financial crises highs.
WHEAT Is It Going To Reverse ? Wait For bearish Price Action
Hello traders:
WHEAT is also looking clean for the downside reversals.
We can see that price has formed into a larger, higher time frame ascending structure, correcting the price up.
We also see a clear rejection and a possible bearish reversal impulse, after hitting a double tops.
HTF:
Latest development has shown us a bearish reversal impulse after initially breaking to the upside.
Watch for LTF bearish continuation correction, as a confirmation for further downside, if price can develop into.
Thank you
DISCLAIMER:
-My forecast and analysis are NOT trading signals nor financial advice, you should not enter trades and invest solely on this information.