WHEAT trade ideas
Uptrend in wheat with clear targetBit of a longer term idea. We see a clear support line, heading up. Forms a decent basis for wheat prices. It shows a few high's over the last years, which form a clear target.
Take length with your own preferred SL/TP.
Trading is not about copying but about forming your own opinion.
WHEAT/USD next upward movement incoming?Hello!
If we look at the one-year cycle, we see that between March and June, wheat prices usually go up. This has to do with the harvest times, which are mostly in autumn. We are currently in the last impulse of the Elliot impulse wave, which started in May 2019. Due to the last steep correction wave, there could now be a strongly rising pulse wave, which has already completed its first of the three pulses. The zones of interest are marked on the chart. This is my first analysis, so I would be happy to receive suggestions and suggestions for improvement.
Have a nice day and stay healthy!
Wheat forming Lower HighKey levels Identified
- Black line : Monthly Resistance
- Maroon line : Monthly Open
Weekly Timeframe
- Third retest of Monthly Resistance level
- Last week candle close as an inside bar suggests consolidation, Expansion might be coming soon
Daily Timeframe
- Confirmed Bearish Pinbar with a close below its low
- Local 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level
Idea: Looking for a retrace to ride to the downside. Unsure if this is truly a lower high as a lower high is only confirmed is there is a lower low.
Wheat Daily and 4 hour Setup PlayThe idea can be triggered here on the 4 hour, but first let us take a look at the daily chart.
We are at an important resistance zone on the daily chart. At around the 5.82 zone. What has caught my attention is the many indecision candles we have here. The two doji candles, candles with large wicks on either side. What this shows us is that there is a battle between the bears and the bulls at this resistance zone. We should definitely be paying attention to price here.
Moving down to the 4 hour chart, and we can see there are more confluences pointing to a possible downside move, and indeed, presents us with a trigger set up. Just looking at market structure here, it shows us an uptrend with higher lows and higher highs. We have had more than two swings which is what we want to look for.
At this resistance zone, we began to range. Look at the wicks here. The fake out candles. Price began to break out but reversed and closed below the previous open highs. This is why we remain patient and await candle closes before taking trades. This fake out trapped many traders to the upside.
We can also say that not only do we have a range here, but in fact, one can make an argument that there is a double top/ triple top at this level. Another good pattern we look for potential trend exhaustion. Putting those two together, the topping pattern and at a resistance level, already give us a good possibility of a downward move.
What we are now awaiting is for a break below this flip zone here (area that has been both support and resistance) at 5.620. Going back and looking to the left, you can see the importance of this zone with multiple touches. We have had a bounce at this zone but I am looking for a reversal and then a break below the flip zone. This would create our first lower high swing that we can work with in a new down trend. Price does seem ready to roll over.
On the fundamental side, there are stories now about supply chains being disrupted due to the virus. Hearing about rice farming and other crop farming being halted in parts of Asia. Stories like this are out of our hands, but can go against this trade idea. We shall await the developments and see if we get the break.
Wheat Long - Our Daily Bread I don't know about other parts of the world but in Eastern Europe it was the wheat that disappeared from the Supermarkets first not the toilet paper.
So I'm biased Long on this trade purely from what I saw happening around me.
Also it's almost April, harvesting for wheat comes towards the end of Summer. So I expect this to go up, maybe not all the way to 7 but towards that area. ( or not )
Wheat Futures Forecast: Buy the pullbacksFundamentally:
According to the Financial Times’ report:
Shoppers’ rush to stock up on non-perishable staples such as pasta and noodles to ride out the coronavirus crisis has boosted demand for wheat, which has risen sharply in futures markets on both sides of the Atlantic.
Prices have been supported by increased buying by flour millers while in France, shoppers have stockpiled baguettes to freeze, leading some bakeries to ration the nation’s favourite bread.
Wheat prices have also been lifted by efforts among various governments to add to strategic inventories. “The north Africans are buying a lot of grain. Stocks are moving from France to Algeria,” said Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.
Heavy falls in emerging market currencies have also revived memories of 2010, when drought and a sharp drop in the rouble prompted Russia — the world’s leading wheat exporter — to ban shipments of grains for almost a year. Last week there were jitters in the market caused by speculation that Moscow and Kyiv were considering similar measures.
Levels as mentioned on the chart