Oil Market: Bearish to neutral — potential for a rebound if $6,0Oil Market: Bearish to neutral — potential for a rebound if $6,000 holds
Crude and gasoline prices fell on Oct. 9 as market sentiment shifted amid rising supply expectations.
OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 137,000 bpd starting November, well below expectations of a 500,000 bpd hike. The group continues to unwind earlier cuts, aiming to restore 1.66 million bpd of production by year-end. OPEC’s September output rose 400,000 bpd to 29.05 million bpd, a 2.5-year high.
On Oct. 10 supply concerns eased after Israel accepted a U.S.-brokered cease-fire deal in Gaza, reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Still, new U.S. sanctions on Iran—targeting over 50 entities linked to oil and LPG trade—helped limit further losses.
Russian supply disruptions remain a supportive factor after drone attacks forced shutdowns at key refineries, while floating storage volumes fell 7% week-on-week to 82.8 million barrels, signaling tighter near-term supply.
Meanwhile, Iraq’s plan to resume Kurdish exports (up to 500,000 bpd) could weigh on prices, offsetting some of the geopolitical support.
EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories 4.5% below the 5-year average, with production up 0.9% w/w to 13.63 million bpd, near record highs. Active U.S. oil rigs slipped by two to 422, just above the four-year low.
Outlook:
Crude oil continues to display a bearish short-term structure, extending its recent downtrend after failing to sustain above the $6,300–$6,350 resistance zone. The price has now revisited the local support area around $6,050–$6,000, which has acted as a key pivot level in recent sessions.
ANZ Research expects near-term downside risks amid higher OPEC+ supply and weaker refinery demand, though low stockpiles outside China may cushion prices into 2026.
A clean rebound from $6,000 could trigger a short-covering move toward $6,200–$6,300.
