Oil Bulls Beware: 65.5 Could Be the Turning Point📲 NFX Oil Trade Alert – Quick View
GBEBROKERS:USOIL – Resistance Test in Play
📍 Current Level: 65.00
📈 Next Target: 65.45–65.90 (38.2% Fib + Supply-Demand Zone)
⚠️ RSI likely to hit overbought at this zone → potential short setup
📉 Bias: Bearish rejection at 65.5 (preferred scenario) → Target back to 62
🔎 Catalyst: Bullish ECONOMICS:USGPRO EIA report, but effect already priced in from Monday’s rally.
📊 Oil Trade Analysis – Detailed Breakdown
FX:USOIL tested 65.00 after breaking out of the 64.1–64.5 SR zone post–EIA report (23.6% Fib retracement). This marks the second bullish report in a row, but this one was weaker, and the reaction looks mostly priced in after the rally from Monday to today.
Currently, price is hovering around 65.00, which is acting as a minor support. While this level may hold temporarily, it’s unlikely to sustain against broader resistance at 65.5.
I’m expecting price to push further towards the 38.2% Fib retracement (65.45–65.90), which also aligns with a major supply-demand zone. At this level, RSI will likely flash overbought, making it my preferred area to look for shorts.
🔀 Scenarios
Path A – Bearish Rejection (Most Probable)
Resistance holds at 65.5 zone.
Expectation: Sharp rejection → price retraces back to 62 (lower band of range).
Path B – Extended Rally (Less Probable)
Price breaks and sustains above 65.9.
Would invalidate immediate short setup and open path towards higher Fib levels.
⚖️ Fundamentals
While the EIA report acted as a short-term catalyst, supply hike remains a heavy bearish overhang. Nothing has changed on the bigger picture.
💬 Game Plan
Watching closely for clear rejection at 65.5. That’s where I’ll be pulling the trigger for shorts.
