WTI falls after US slaps 50% tariff on India over Russian oilWTI oil prices have dropped from $65 to around $62.80 as markets react to new US tariffs on India, triggered by India’s ongoing oil trade with Russia. These tariffs, along with threats of even higher tariffs on China, are weighing on global demand and pushing oil prices lower. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil production has hit multi-year highs, adding more supply to the market and reinforcing the bearish trend.
Technically, oil has broken below a key Fibonacci support level, signalling a deeper pullback. If prices fall below $62, further downside toward $57 is possible. Upside moves may be short-lived unless there’s a major geopolitical shock, such as an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For now, both the macro environment and technical signals indicate continued pressure on oil prices.
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WTI trade ideas
Potential bullish bounce?USO/USD is falling towards the support level, which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 64.12
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 63.50
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 65.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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Oil Trade Analysis📊 NFX GBEBROKERS:USOIL Oil Trade Analysis
FX:USOIL is currently trading at a critical resistance zone around $64.200. With no strong fundamentals to back the current bullish momentum, this move looks short-lived given the broader macroeconomic outlook (as discussed in our last WMA session).
🔀 Two key paths ahead:
Path A – Bearish Rejection🔻(Most Probable)
Price faces rejection at current SR zone.
Confluence with the 200-day SMA, which has acted as strong resistance for some time.
Likely scenario: sharp retracement downwards.
Path B – Liquidity Grab 🔸
Price breaks above the 200-day SMA and SR zone.
Pushes higher towards the next resistance at 65 (38.2% Fib level).
Expected to be a fakeout/liquidity grab before a heavy bearish drop.
📅 Market Movers to Watch Tomorrow:
FOMC Statement
USOil Inventory Report
Fed Rate Cut Decision
⚖️ Personally, I lean strongly towards Path A (bearish rejection🔻), but I’ll be waiting for confirmation before entering. News tomorrow will be the key catalyst.
💬 What’s your outlook? Share your thoughts in the comments.
USOIL Long term outlookStill bearish short term, but stocks like GTE may be a strong buy at the MA support.
OIL will dump in the future as alternative fuels take its place or another economic standstill occurs i.e. pandemic v2 (ty bill gates), but then I expect OIL to pump from that low once it has been reached
Not financial advice
USOIL(WTI) – Demand Zone Tested,Potential Bullish Reversal AheadCrude Oil (WTI) is showing signs of strength after respecting the support level near $60–62 and forming a clear demand zone. Price has been consolidating within a descending structure and is now attempting to push higher.
Key observations:
✅ Support level held strongly near $60.
✅ Multiple Change of Character (CHoCH) signals indicating momentum shift.
✅ A potential breakout above the descending triangle may open the path toward the $70–72 demand zone.
📈 If bullish momentum continues, next targets lie around $76–80 resistance area.
On the downside, a break below $60 would invalidate the bullish setup and expose a move toward $56–54.
This structure highlights a possible trend reversal from the bottom toward higher levels, as long as buyers maintain control above support.
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Please trade responsibly and manage your risk
Is there a chance of a 50 basis point cut? SPX traded to new all time highs today.
Many stocks had blow off move or breakout candles.
Market makers cleared out lots of short interest today.
The employment data is starting to get worse.
A new 2 year high in initial jobless claims.
Markets rallied on dollar and yields weakness.
At some point the markets will price in a recession. Growth stocks need to be monitored closely.
We took profits on Tesla & Baidu today.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Strong Bearish Pressure
WTI Crude Oil is under a strong bearish pressure after
US CPI release today.
A bearish breakout of a support line of a flag pattern
in a clear intraday downtrend on a 4H time frame leaves
a strong confirmation.
I think that the price will reach 62.0 level soon.
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Crude Oil Eyes 4-Month Consolidation BreakoutOil prices have been consolidating within a triangle formation since the June 2025 high, which was triggered by the Israel–Iran escalation. Price action has traced a sequence of lower highs and higher lows, holding above the critical $61 support.
With five legs unfolding inside the triangle, a potential bullish breakout could take shape if the price holds above $64, opening the door toward: $66.80, $67.70, and $70.20, which aligns with the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel from 2022
A confirmed break above $70.20 could shift the long-term trend, transitioning from consolidation to a potential bullish reversal.
From the downside:
Failure to hold above $61 could see a retest of the 2025 lows, with key support levels at: $60.20, $59.20, $58.00.
Key events:
• FOMC meeting – Wednesday
• Ukraine-Russia refinery attacks
• Demand vs OPEC unwinds
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Oil Analysis: Testing Lows Before a Bounce?Price remains below key resistance levels and the monthly Point of Control (POC). I think within the next week, we could see the lows taken out, which would then be followed by a bounce.
The key question is whether the wave (ii) correction (red scenario) is complete, or if we are poised for another rally toward $67/bbl.
For now, we are maintaining careful short positions. Fading the trend at the potential end of a wave is generally a fool's errand; I've even added it to my rulebook as a hard taboo.
The slightly longer-term chart suggests another potential scenario in green.
USOIL BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 62.91
Target Level: 61.55
Stop Loss: 63.81
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Crude oil tests the key resistance areaWe’ll start our review with Crude oil: the price consolidates around the dynamic resistance area of $63-64, and may try to retest it again before starting another downswing. The sentiment for Crude oil in particular and for energy assets in general remains muted (though, stocks of the energy sector display modest gains).
According to supply/demand estimation from eia.gov, pressure for Crude oil futures will increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, so the sentiment remains bearish, which is also confirmed by the price action.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
Boring oilHonestly, even if you analyze oil just once a month and then come back to the chart the next month, you wouldn’t miss anything — the chart is that repetitive. For months now, the price has been fluctuating between \$63 and \$61. So for now, we won’t be posting any more oil analyses until a new conflict in the Middle East happens that could push the price higher. ✅
Crude oil - DAILY- 15/09/2025Oil prices extended last week’s gains as traders weighed rising geopolitical risks against forecasts of a surplus later this year. US President Donald Trump renewed pressure on Europe to cut Russian oil purchases and floated sanctions if NATO allies comply, while the US is also pushing G7 partners to impose tariffs on China and India for buying Russian crude.
Market sentiment remains shaped by escalating tensions, including Israeli strikes in Qatar and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. Analysts warn that sanctions and infrastructure damage could push prices higher in the short term, but expectations of a supply overhang and OPEC+ production increases keep downside risks in focus.
On the technical side, the price of crude oil has retested the major support area of $62 and has since rebounded to the upside. The Stochastic oscillator is back in neutral levels for the time being, hinting that the recent bullish correction could project into the near short term while the Bollinger bands are sufficiently expanded, showing that there is volatility to support any short-term spikes.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
WTI 4HTrading Outlooks for the Week Ahead
In this series of analyses, we review short-term trading outlooks and perspectives.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone close to the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or breakout from these levels will determine the next price movement toward the specified targets.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight critical price levels ahead and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
WTI OIL Recent fractal calls for a buy towards $70.50.WTI Oil (USOIL) is on the 3rd straight green 1D candle following a Double Bottom bounce on the 61.50 Support. At the same time the 1D RSI formed Higher Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence.
The same set of conditions emerged on the May 05 bottom rebound, which resulted into initially a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and then a Resistance 2 contact.
As a result, we expect this rise to continue, targeting $70.50.
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Oil at the crossroads - buy zone or bear trap?Technically , WTI is testing the lower boundary of a converging wedge, hovering around the identified buy zone. Holding above 62–63 is critical for bulls, as a breakdown would expose targets at 61.30 and 58.80. Conversely, a rebound from current levels could trigger a move toward 70.50 and even 77.60 if momentum builds. The daily stochastic hints at a potential reversal to the upside, suggesting that a short-term bounce may be in play.
Fundamentally , the outlook remains tense: weak demand from China and global economic uncertainty are weighing on prices, while OPEC+ continues to maintain control over supply. U.S. inventory swings, with alternating builds and exports, add to volatility. Overall, the setup looks neutral with elevated risk - macro data could easily tip the balance either way.
Tactically , the market is facing a binary scenario: sustained strength above 63 opens the way to 70.50 and 77.60, while failure here brings 58.80–55.60 into focus.
In short, oil is at a crossroads and the next decisive move depends on whether bulls can hold the line.
USOIL Is Very Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 62.543.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 70.257 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Crude Oil (USOIL) – Long SetupOil is currently trading around $63.20 and has formed a clean ascending structure, pushing into the breakout zone. Price is respecting the trendline well and is consolidating just below the EMA cluster – a breakout could be next.
We're currently in a narrow entry zone where bulls may gain control if we see a clean break above the local resistance range.
Trade Setup:
Entry: within the purple box (current zone)
Stop Loss: $62.60 just below the trendline – invalid if broken
Breakout Confirmation: clear candle close above $63.45
Targets:
T1: $63.70
T2: $64,60
Why Long?
Trendline support is holding – price has been bouncing cleanly off the rising line.
Momentum building – repeated tests of resistance without strong rejection.
EMA cluster as magnet – price may want to retest and potentially break through the EMA zone sitting above.
Summary:
Crude oil is coiling tightly just below resistance and trendline support is holding strong.
If we get a push above the breakout zone, I expect follow-through toward T1 = $63.70 and T2 = $64.60
Setup becomes invalid if the ascending trendline breaks clearly to the downside.
No financial advice – just how I see the chart.