CVecchioFX3e

CVecchioFX3e

The decline in both US Treasury yields (US10Y) as well as Fed rate hike expectations (GEN2021-GEZ2023) is proving to be an albatross around the US Dollar's proverbial neck. It's possible that price action in recent months has taken the form of a bearish rising wedge on the daily chart, suggesting that USD/JPY rates may have more downside ahead. To this end, more...

CVecchioFX3e

Silver prices are holding with their multi-month ascending triangle, remaining on track for a return to its yearly high at 30.1365. If accomplished, this would also constitute a potential longer-term bullish breakout, more evidence that a significant bottom has been carved out; the 2011 highs would need to be brought into consideration thereafter.

CVecchioFX3e

Crude Oil is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle on the H4 timeframe, hovering just below the June 2016 swing higher near $51.65; the symmetrical triangle peaked at $51.60. A weekly close through $51.65 would signal a significant turn in energy markets (implications for USD/CAD and CAD-crosses in general). Breakout targets to the topside would be ~$53.80 and $56.00/40.

CVecchioFX3e

Keep an eye on Gold now that PMs are no longer the low man on the yield totem pole. A bullish falling wedge hints at the potential for a move up to $1300 over the coming weeks. See how this pertains to the January NFP report.

CVecchioFX3e

The intraday rally has reached a pivotal point with the pair trading back towards $1.1050/1.1175, prior support from August-October and resistance since the breakdown on October 22 (failed retests 10/28-10/30 and 12/9-12/15).Both daily MACD and Stochastics have turned higher into bullish territory, signaling accelerating topside momentum. In context of broader...

CVecchioFX3e

The USDOLLAR Index has exited its broadening wedge to the downside, reentering the bull flag that governed price from November through early-January. Watch for a close below 12180 to confirm a break of last week's low and a failed topside breakout overall. Daily indicators are eroding as well, with daily MACD and Slow Stochastics having given up their bullish...

CVecchioFX3e

Technically, the Aussie is showing signs of meaningful deterioration across a number of pairs. Both AUD/JPY and AUD/USD have stalled into former support turned resistance areas and are threatening their uptrends from their January lows. AUD/CAD is garnering greater attention now that it appears to be on the verge of breaking both a longer-term multi-week uptrend...

CVecchioFX3e

Technically, the Aussie is showing signs of meaningful deterioration across a number of pairs. Both AUD/JPY and AUD/USD have stalled into former support turned resistance areas and are threatening their uptrends from their January lows. AUD/CAD is garnering greater attention now that it appears to be on the verge of breaking both a longer-term multi-week uptrend...

CVecchioFX3e

With USD/JPY trading up towards its former trendline support and EUR/USD's bear flag still biased lower, one pair that should draw interest in the coming days is EUR/JPY. EUR/JPY lost the ¥133.10/50 support region of its consolidation triangle (tests of support came in May, July, September, and October) on October 27, after the ECB's shift in policy. With price...

CVecchioFX3e

With the Euro continuing to weaken to start October (versus the other seven major currencies covered by DailyFX Research, the Euro has fallen by an average of -0.67%), improving French economic conditions, and evidence that the Fed will keep rates lower for longer (with perhaps the European Central Bank getting ready to ease next), the path has been cleared for an...

CVecchioFX3e

GBPNZD may be on the verge of its next leg up in its multi-month channel. The recent consolidation over the past three weeks has resulted in an ascending triangle after an uptrend, a potential bullish continuation pattern. Long GBPNZD Entry: 2.4630 Stop: 2.4040 (-590-pips) Target: 2.5550 (+920-pips) (ascending triangle measured move)

CVecchioFX3e

AUDNZD triangle/pennant offers a trade removed from direct FOMC influences over the next few days. Longs are eyed above 1.1305 with a stop below 1.0895. Shorts are eyed below 1.0895 with a stop above 1.1305. Daily momentum indicators (Stochastics, MACD) are starting to align bullishly in concert with the weekly timeframe.

CVecchioFX3e

At heart, the Euro is a funding currency. Investors are using it as a vehicle to operate in other asset classes. Look no further than the performance of inverse EURUSD (USDEUR on the chart) versus the German DAX since the middle of September 2014 - right after the ECB pushed its interest rate corridor into negative territory. See the "link to related ideas" below...

CVecchioFX3e

This is a follow up and an expansion on our GBPUSD chart posted last week (see link to related ideas below). The recent rejection of $1.5660/1.5700 has resulted in a loss of the uptrend from the July 8, 9, and 24 lows. In context of the potential longer-term pattern - a bearish rising wedge that commenced with the break in price on July 7 and subsequent...

CVecchioFX3e

USDJPY has been mired below ¥124.60/65 since June 9, when on the H4 timeframe an outside engulfing/key reversal bar transpired. However, for the first time in two months, USDJPY has pierced the topside resistance band, clearing out ¥124.60/65 after the stronger than expected US ISM Services report for July. With the H4 indicators (Stochastics and MACD) turning...

CVecchioFX3e

Yesterday's FOMC shook out as expected: the Fed took on a modestly hawkish tone, with several disclaimers as to why they wouldn't pre-commit to interest rate hikes. Price action around the meeting was rather fickle, with markets first taking the stance that the Fed's view that the economy was "nearly balanced" would deter them from raising rates in September, then...

CVecchioFX3e

GBPUSD is finding intraday resistance in a familiar region once again, at $1.5660/1.5700, which has served as dynamic support/resistance since the last week of June. With the FOMC due later today, price is likely to remain noncommittal to a break higher through this region; and in context of price remaining below the April-June uptrend, rejection from this region...

CVecchioFX3e

The familiar situation of falling European sovereign yields, rising European (and global) equity markets, and a depreciating Euro are all back in play. But for brief event-driven short covering rallies, the Euro may be in the early stages of reclaiming its role as a funding currency – look no further than the divergence between EURJPY and global equity markets...