Phi-Deltalytics

Phi-Deltalytics

Liquidity issues continue and long-term holders are still selling in losses. While many on-chain cycle indicators (eg. realized price) are showing BTC is in the cyclical bottom, on-chain recovering signs are missing. The yield curve has inverted (the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month Treasury bill). With such inversion...

Phi-Deltalytics

Open interest on Binance (yellow line above) has increased significantly since mid June, while open interest on CME (blue line above) has stagnated. An over-heating retail derivative market along with a weakening institutional derivative market often leads to price declines for bitcoin. Liquidity issues continue and long-term holders are still selling in losses....

Phi-Deltalytics

The open interest money flow index is now extremely oversold on the daily timeframe. With the futures market now contributing to 80-90% of BTC’s trading volume, this index has been extremely useful in the current cycle. Institutional bulls also have signs of returning. After trading at discounts since early May (BTC $40k), institutional spot traders on Coinbase...

Phi-Deltalytics Updated 

With BTC SPX correlation at all time high level, the impact of inflation on BTC prices increase accordingly. Unfortunately, supply side shortages make it tough for the Fed to deal with the inflation issues at hand. So I wouldn’t be calling the bottom now even with lots of on-chain metrics at historical oversold levels. Most crypto traders are more focused on the...

Phi-Deltalytics

Macro conditions couldn’t be any worse. Starting this month, the Fed unleashed its quantitative tightening (QT) plans, trimming the $9trillion balance sheet at an unprecedented scale (current run-off cap: $47.5bn/month initial; $95bn/month 3 month later; 2017 run-off: max $50bn/month). The last two quantitative tightening led to a sharp rise in yields in 2013 and...

Phi-Deltalytics

Coinbase premium has significantly dropped to the negative territory. With more institutional traders on Coinbase and more retail traders on Binance, the Coinbase premium over Binance’s BTC price has been a good gage of the institutional trader sentiments. Institutional traders have been willingly paying premiums throughout the past 2 years of crypto market boom...

Phi-Deltalytics Updated 

“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann Did you pocket the 12k breakout? Cheers! I will be on vacation first week of November and might not get around to publishing the next weekly overview. So...

Phi-Deltalytics Updated 

“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann First of all, from an actuarial background (as conservative as it goes in finance), I’ve never thought one day I would be giving a bullish bias on such a...

Phi-Deltalytics Updated 

“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann Hope you are now in profit with last week’s analysis. I’m not taking profit at the current level and will wait for the market to get overly bullish before...

Phi-Deltalytics

“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money indicator gave out accumulation signals. This indicates smart money has been...

Phi-Deltalytics

“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level and are higher than the July level when we had...

Phi-Deltalytics Updated 

Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level and are higher than the July level when we had the 10k break out. This not only is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs, but also indicates a strong support at 10k. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto...

Phi-Deltalytics Updated 

Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level and are higher than the July level when we had the 10k break out. This not only is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs, but also indicates a strong support at 10k. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in the crypto space...

Phi-Deltalytics Updated 

First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest...

Phi-Deltalytics Updated 

First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up...

Phi-Deltalytics Updated 

First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest...

Phi-Deltalytics Updated 

First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest...

Phi-Deltalytics Updated 

First of all, please support our work by smashing that like button or following! These really help us to reach more traders like you! Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. Institutional investors showed picked up interest in...