SemperTrader

07:41

SemperTrader Updated 

So we are hitting a 2hr uptrend right here at 4114. This is going to be a lower high 2hr uptrend. We have already had a lower high 30m and 1hr uptrend signal also. Having cashed out on my last trade, I might look at anything around the 2hr uptrend if it closes up here and causes that signal, as a short position. However, I am also aware that tomorrow is CPI data....

09:12

SemperTrader Updated 

So I'm sitting short from 4150 and still holding to see things go lower. Quick tidbit, the overnight plunge was likely spurred in some part by Russia reducing oil production by 500,000 barrels a day as punishment for sanctions. This is why oil prices spiked overnight also, although they've fallen back to under 1% (they were over 2% for a bit there). In terms of...

10:33

SemperTrader Updated 

So as I state in the video, I cashed my short out at 4148. Looking for another short to get into or just picking up where I left off at. We had a 30m/1hr trend down yesterday, and overnight we got a 30m/1hr trend up. The uptrends overnight were a lower high on the 30m and a higher high barely on the 1hr. We are currently below the 1hr but sitting above the...

11:14

SemperTrader Updated 

So I got into a short on the first peak, made profit on the dip and was stopped out on the reverse momentum. I didn't jump in right away on the next surge, but did grab another short overnight as I still believe we head down shortly. I do not trust this rally until I see a genuine lower leg that holds and we rally off of. Every potential dip was just bought up en...

10:38

SemperTrader

So I held my trade and walked away from the S&P for a bit to short the 6E (the Euro). It netted me about $3000 the last couple days, and that also gave me time to let my trade begin to form here. I closed out my 4140 short at just below 4110 yesterday, for a net profit of just over $1500. Certainly not the move I wanted, but the move I ended up with. I still...

08:15

SemperTrader

So, I'm short again at 4140, which is already looking as a potentially flawed trade, but we will see. With the 4hr closing at 4142, it certainly appears that trends are basically maxed to the upside. I was looking and I do think it is possible that the Weekly timeframe could get an uptrend close to here, so I might hold through past that and see what...

08:12

SemperTrader Updated 

So I had said I believed we would have some upward movement yesterday, although it did go a about 40 points higher than I expected. However, with that level of upward movement, we are nearly maxed to the uptrends again, with just the 4hr waiting to hit, unless we are close to getting that Weekly back out of the downtrend pattern it recently went into. It does...

05:01

SemperTrader

So I'm still sitting in the same trade, just waiting to see if things move downward past the 4000 level. I actually was watching the market when it was below 4010 and nearly decided to take profit at the moment and then evaluate again for another entry down. Unfortunate at this point I didn't but I do expect some more downside still. The trends however are being...

12:29

SemperTrader

So we got that Daily Uptrend signal, and have so far hit lower off of it. I foresee a move down to around 3913 as a retest to the low and then if we can rally above that, it could be a sustainable new bull market. My instincts tell me however that we won't sustain this push overall, fed by my concern over the weekly downtrend market signal we recently got. I hope...

10:23

SemperTrader Updated 

So we got the upward movement I'd discussed yesterday. We did get a 30m downtrend yesterday but we bounced up and did in the end close higher as I had believed we would. I went short yesterday and am still sitting in that position now. I was concerned that good PCE data might cause us to spike upwards, but ultimately I don't see the PCE data as a good data point,...

07:24

SemperTrader Updated 

So, again I believe that the market will have a harsh swing down coming, but yet again, I caution to wait for a good entry. While I didn't get to partake in yesterday's rally because I was stopped out before we went much lower than I expected, we did still get the upward movement that the trends called for. I could see some more upward movement up to around 4080...

11:22

SemperTrader Updated 

So I exited my trade from yesterday for a profit just above $2000. That puts me at around $2800 for the week. I'm a bit unsure about our next movement. My instinct says we could head lower and have a total meltdown of a day, however, thus far each time we started to meltdown we immediately pulled back up and it has become apparent this 4000 zone is a battleground...

06:18

SemperTrader Updated 

So after jumping out briefly yesterday I went back in short at 4029 this morning. We did get a 30m downtrend mark earlier this morning at 4027. We did not have a major bounce off of it, at least not yet. Currently I'll be looking for at least a 1hr downtrend mark, as the 1hr is in violation (it was in a lower high uptrend mark) so it would allow us to fix it....

07:54

SemperTrader Updated 

So while I took Friday off, it looks like the market ended up right around where I thought we would (I forget the exact number I called, maybe 3997? somewhere in the 90s anyways). That being said I wouldn't just jump into a short quite yet, or at least I'm not going to. I've said I'm fairly neutral with this markets long term direction, and want to see how we...

10:02

SemperTrader Updated 

So we got the downward movement I've been calling and waiting for finally. I did jump out earlier than I anticipated. I'd said I thought we'd get close to 3900 on the next descent, but my trading strategy gave me no logical reason to stay in past 3946 so I got out at 3943 as I don't trade off my "gut", I trade with trends. The 6hr downtrend signal came much higher...

12:56

SemperTrader Updated 

So this is a longer video, as I discuss more than just the current market, but where I foresee price action heading into at least the first half of the year, and why. I apologize for the painful observance of me trying to switch around on time charts, I'm still getting used to TradingView at times and so it is certainly my issue of being unfamiliar and learning...

10:23

SemperTrader Updated 

So we got that 12hr uptrend signal we wanted. Nearly every trend signal is in an uptrend now, except the Daily. I've discussed the importance of this Daily uptrend signal hitting for some time now as it will be the first higher high in nearly a year. That being said, if it comes, I expect some choppy initial reversing action to come with it as trends will be maxed...

07:42

SemperTrader Updated 

So the video explains it better, but ultimately I'm looking to see if we can get another 12hr uptrend signal here and see if it can hold again into that 13:00 EST closing bar on a 12hr chart. If/When that happens, I'll be watching price action to see if I want to cash out on my trade (Long 3920) or hold on to see if we can get a bit higher and even potentially...