Can Bulls Reclaim $262 or Will It Slip Back to $252? 🍏
1. Market Structure (1H & 15M)
Apple’s recent price action shows a fragile equilibrium forming between supply and demand after a clean recovery from the $252 zone. On the 1-hour chart, we’ve got a CHoCH confirming short-term buyers stepping back in around $255, but price remains capped below a key mid-range resistance zone at $260–$262, where several prior breakdown candles originated.
The BOS from earlier in the week was followed by a retracement that created a local higher low structure, hinting at possible accumulation between $255–$258. However, the failure so far to push decisively through $262.50 shows hesitation — likely due to overhead liquidity and the GEX call wall there.
On the 15-minute chart,
Apple is consolidating inside a rising channel with small BOS/CHoCH rotations that reflect indecision. The latest CHoCH suggests short-term exhaustion, but as long as price respects $257–$258, bulls still have a chance to retake control into Friday.
2. Supply and Demand / Order Blocks
* Demand Zone (Support): $252.5–$255.5, aligning with a previous BOS level and high-volume accumulation area.
* Near-Term Demand: $257–$258 (15M fair value gap + local retest zone).
* Supply Zone (Resistance): $262–$265 — key order block cluster where sellers previously initiated the drop; breakout beyond this range could ignite a trend continuation toward $268+.
The chart shows clear liquidity resting above $262 and below $252 — suggesting that whichever side gets swept first will likely define Friday’s directional bias.
3. Indicator Confluence
* 9 EMA / 21 EMA: On the 15M, both EMAs are converging with a mild upward slope, indicating an early transition from consolidation to possible upside momentum. The 1H EMAs are flattening — a neutral but stabilizing signal.
* MACD: The 1-hour MACD is curling upward with histogram bars flipping positive, suggesting bulls are slowly regaining control. On the 15-minute, MACD shows mild bearish divergence but flattening momentum — setting up for a potential premarket expansion.
* RSI: 1-hour RSI is sitting near 68, close to bullish control but not yet overbought. 15M RSI oscillates between 52–60, ideal for a momentum reset phase.
* Volume: Volume picked up during the $252 bounce but has cooled — typical of compression before a possible breakout.
4. GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Options Sentiment
Friday’s GEX chart paints a tight battleground between the $252.5 HVL support and the $262–$265 gamma wall. The highest positive gamma lies right at $259–$260, meaning dealers may attempt to pin price near that zone through hedging.
Below that, the PUT support around $250 aligns perfectly with structural demand and previous BOS support — this is the line bulls must defend. Above, $265 represents the dominant call wall, making it the near-term ceiling unless a gamma squeeze takes hold.
The current IVR (20) and IVX avg (29.8) show low volatility, and call sentiment remains modest (7.1%), implying traders are cautious but not overly bearish. If momentum accelerates past $262, gamma positioning could flip and lead to a controlled squeeze toward $267–$270.
5. Trade Scenarios for Friday, Oct. 24
Bullish Setup 🟩
* Entry Zone: $258–$259 retest or breakout above $262.2
* Targets: $264 → $267 → $270
* Stop-Loss: Below $256.8
* Confirmation: Hold above 9 EMA on 15M + MACD histogram rising + RSI > 60
Bearish Setup 🟥
* Entry Zone: $261–$262.5 rejection or CHoCH under $257
* Targets: $255 → $252 → $248
* Stop-Loss: Above $263.5
* Confirmation: MACD crossdown + RSI divergence + BOS to downside
6. Closing Outlook for Oct. 24 (Friday)
Friday looks to be a compression breakout setup for Apple — momentum is tightening between $257 and $262. If bulls reclaim $262 with conviction, watch for a potential gamma-driven squeeze toward $267+. Conversely, a rejection there with fading volume could pull Apple back toward its $252–$255 accumulation base.
My personal view: AAPL remains neutral-to-bullish as long as $257 holds. Buyers have shown up at every dip this week, and Friday’s session might reveal whether that base was genuine accumulation or just short-term relief. Keep your eyes on $262 — that’s the key trigger level.
📊 Final Thought: “AAPL is balancing between $257 and $262 — the calm before the breakout. If bulls crack $262, the gamma unwind could send it flying toward $270. If not, expect a cool-off back to the $255 zone.”
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
1. Market Structure (1H & 15M)
Apple’s recent price action shows a fragile equilibrium forming between supply and demand after a clean recovery from the $252 zone. On the 1-hour chart, we’ve got a CHoCH confirming short-term buyers stepping back in around $255, but price remains capped below a key mid-range resistance zone at $260–$262, where several prior breakdown candles originated.
The BOS from earlier in the week was followed by a retracement that created a local higher low structure, hinting at possible accumulation between $255–$258. However, the failure so far to push decisively through $262.50 shows hesitation — likely due to overhead liquidity and the GEX call wall there.
On the 15-minute chart,
Apple is consolidating inside a rising channel with small BOS/CHoCH rotations that reflect indecision. The latest CHoCH suggests short-term exhaustion, but as long as price respects $257–$258, bulls still have a chance to retake control into Friday.
2. Supply and Demand / Order Blocks
* Demand Zone (Support): $252.5–$255.5, aligning with a previous BOS level and high-volume accumulation area.
* Near-Term Demand: $257–$258 (15M fair value gap + local retest zone).
* Supply Zone (Resistance): $262–$265 — key order block cluster where sellers previously initiated the drop; breakout beyond this range could ignite a trend continuation toward $268+.
The chart shows clear liquidity resting above $262 and below $252 — suggesting that whichever side gets swept first will likely define Friday’s directional bias.
3. Indicator Confluence
* 9 EMA / 21 EMA: On the 15M, both EMAs are converging with a mild upward slope, indicating an early transition from consolidation to possible upside momentum. The 1H EMAs are flattening — a neutral but stabilizing signal.
* MACD: The 1-hour MACD is curling upward with histogram bars flipping positive, suggesting bulls are slowly regaining control. On the 15-minute, MACD shows mild bearish divergence but flattening momentum — setting up for a potential premarket expansion.
* RSI: 1-hour RSI is sitting near 68, close to bullish control but not yet overbought. 15M RSI oscillates between 52–60, ideal for a momentum reset phase.
* Volume: Volume picked up during the $252 bounce but has cooled — typical of compression before a possible breakout.
4. GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Options Sentiment
Friday’s GEX chart paints a tight battleground between the $252.5 HVL support and the $262–$265 gamma wall. The highest positive gamma lies right at $259–$260, meaning dealers may attempt to pin price near that zone through hedging.
Below that, the PUT support around $250 aligns perfectly with structural demand and previous BOS support — this is the line bulls must defend. Above, $265 represents the dominant call wall, making it the near-term ceiling unless a gamma squeeze takes hold.
The current IVR (20) and IVX avg (29.8) show low volatility, and call sentiment remains modest (7.1%), implying traders are cautious but not overly bearish. If momentum accelerates past $262, gamma positioning could flip and lead to a controlled squeeze toward $267–$270.
5. Trade Scenarios for Friday, Oct. 24
Bullish Setup 🟩
* Entry Zone: $258–$259 retest or breakout above $262.2
* Targets: $264 → $267 → $270
* Stop-Loss: Below $256.8
* Confirmation: Hold above 9 EMA on 15M + MACD histogram rising + RSI > 60
Bearish Setup 🟥
* Entry Zone: $261–$262.5 rejection or CHoCH under $257
* Targets: $255 → $252 → $248
* Stop-Loss: Above $263.5
* Confirmation: MACD crossdown + RSI divergence + BOS to downside
6. Closing Outlook for Oct. 24 (Friday)
Friday looks to be a compression breakout setup for Apple — momentum is tightening between $257 and $262. If bulls reclaim $262 with conviction, watch for a potential gamma-driven squeeze toward $267+. Conversely, a rejection there with fading volume could pull Apple back toward its $252–$255 accumulation base.
My personal view: AAPL remains neutral-to-bullish as long as $257 holds. Buyers have shown up at every dip this week, and Friday’s session might reveal whether that base was genuine accumulation or just short-term relief. Keep your eyes on $262 — that’s the key trigger level.
📊 Final Thought: “AAPL is balancing between $257 and $262 — the calm before the breakout. If bulls crack $262, the gamma unwind could send it flying toward $270. If not, expect a cool-off back to the $255 zone.”
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.