Bitcoin: The Cycle Is Approaching Its Breakout Phase

Bitcoin: The Cycle Is Approaching Its Breakout Phase – “Time Is Tightening, the Band Is Compressing”

LETS START =)

This chart ultimately tells one story:

Bitcoin has never abandoned its 4-year rhythm; it simply reduces volatility each cycle while grinding toward the upper logarithmic band.

Let’s decode the structure step by step.

1) Logarithmic Regression Bands: “Not a trendline, a structural corridor”

The grey–black bands represent a logarithmic channel that Bitcoin has never broken below since 2011.

There are three key layers:

A) Lower-Mid Band (Cycle Floor Support)

→ The bottoms of 2012, 2015, and 2019 all touched this region.
→ Today this zone sits around ~43k–55k.

The fact that the 2022 bottom formed here already confirms that the structural low of this cycle is behind us.

B) Upper-Mid Band (Pre-Top Compression Zone)

→ In every major cycle—2013, 2017, 2021—price consolidated beneath this band right before the final blow-off phase.
→ In 2025, BTC is again compressing inside the same zone.

This implies:

Bitcoin always “stalls” once before the true cycle top.
This stall is happening now.

C) Upper Red Band (Macro Top Territory)

→ All mega tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 hit this exact red logarithmic curve.
→ The projection for the 2025–2026 cycle peaks lands here again:
185k – 260k.

The red curve marks the end of the road.

2) Cyclical Time Markers (Orange Vertical Lines): “The 1-Year rhythm repeats”

The orange verticals represent Bitcoin’s 1-year hybrid time geometry.

Every yearly block follows the same pattern:

Momentum compresses

Volatility dries up

RSI drifts toward the floor

Final trend expansion happens in the last 3–4 months

Right now, as we enter late 2025:

The time marker again aligns with a cyclical weakness window

Which historically precedes major upside expansions

This mirrors 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2023 perfectly.

The chart is saying:

“Your time window is closing. This is the reset before expansion.”

3) RSI at 32: “Cycle-bottom signal”

The horizontal red line tracks historical cycle-bottom RSI values.

An RSI in the 32–35 range marked:

2011 bottom

2015 bottom

2019 bottom

2023 bottom

In late 2025, RSI is back in the same zone.

This tells us:

The trend is not breaking; momentum is resetting.
This is the last cooldown before the expansion leg.

Bitcoin has never topped a macro cycle with weekly RSI this low.
Every blow-off top occurred with RSI between 70–90.

RSI is saying clearly:

“The cycle top is not in. This bull market is not finished.”

4) Price Behavior: “Compression beneath upper band = calm before ignition”

Bitcoin is currently:

Squeezed between the upper-mid grey band

And the upper red logarithmic curve

Forming the tightest consolidation since 2021

This structure resembles:

→ Mid-2016 (right before the 2017 parabolic run)
→ Summer 2020 (right before the 2021 surge)

Once again, BTC is behaving like a coiled spring—fully compressed, waiting for release.

5) Cyclical Projection (Cryptollica style):

Assuming historical structure repeats:

Short Term (1–3 months):

RSI bottom → sideways grind → momentum reversal

Medium Term (3–9 months):

Break above upper-mid band
→ explosive flow into 85k–110k range
→ sentiment flips fully bullish

Macro Top Window (first half of 2026):

Touch of the upper red band
→ 185k–260k macro top potential

This band has never failed across 3 full cycles.
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This chart is not showing weakness.
It is showing a textbook cyclical reset.

**“The 2026 blow-off top hasn’t even started.

This is the final compression…
the final breath…

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2013-2018


2021-2026