The question of the end of Bitcoin’s bull cycle linked to the 2024 halving is currently the hot topic in the crypto market. As often, history does not repeat itself exactly but it rhymes, and studying previous cycles allows us to shed light on the probable reversal zones. In this comparative work, three main criteria are considered: post-halving duration, time since the previous cycle’s top, and time since the beginning of the cycle. The comparative table presented in this analysis puts into perspective Bitcoin’s three past cycles (2012, 2016, and 2020), with a particular focus on the last two, in order to project a time window for the end of the current cycle that began with the April 2024 halving. We also take into account the purely calendar-based aspect of the end of the three previous cycles, which allows us to determine the most likely time frame for the end of the ongoing cycle.
The 2012 Cycle: A Special Case
The first cycle studied, that of 2012, ended after only 366 days post-halving. In calendar terms, it concluded on December 4, 2013. Its relatively short duration (775 days since the beginning of the cycle) makes it a special case, not to be used as the main reference for current projections. However, it provides an initial marker of the possible variability of cycles.
The 2016 Cycle: A First Reference
The second cycle, which started after the July 2016 halving, ended after 526 days. That would correspond to September 28, 2025, if our current cycle followed the same timeline, with the actual historical end on December 16, 2017. This cycle lasted 1,472 days since the previous top and 1,068 days since its own beginning. These figures show a clear lengthening compared to the 2012 cycle.
The 2020 Cycle: Confirmation of a Pattern
The third cycle, following the May 2020 halving, lasted 547 days post-halving, which would project the end of the current cycle to October 19, 2025, if repeated, with the actual historical end on November 8, 2021. Its total duration was 1,424 days since the previous top and 1,061 days since the beginning. These figures are close to those of the 2016 cycle, reinforcing the idea of some temporal regularity in Bitcoin’s dynamics, even if price amplitudes differ.
The Average of the Last Two Cycles: A Solid Basis for 2025
Combining the 2016 and 2020 cycles, we get an average post-halving duration of 536 days, i.e. a projection around October 8, 2025, for the current cycle. In calendar terms, this places the end of the cycle between November 20 and 25, 2025. The durations since the previous top (1,448 days) and since the beginning of the cycle (1,064 days) also support this projection, suggesting a likely window between late October and November 2025.
The Current Cycle (2024): A Window of Uncertainty
The ongoing cycle, from the April 2024 halving, is already at 514 days. Projections based on past durations place a possible end between mid-October and mid-November next year. Calculations relative to the previous cycle’s top also point to October 26, 2025, with a margin extending into November.
Conclusion: October or November 2025?
Comparative analysis favors an end of cycle between October and November 2025, with a slightly higher probability of a peak in October, but an extension into November remains credible, especially with crypto ETFs. As always with Bitcoin, volatility and macroeconomic events could accelerate or delay this pattern, particularly the Fed’s monetary policy. But this time window provides a valuable framework to anticipate the next major market moves.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
The 2012 Cycle: A Special Case
The first cycle studied, that of 2012, ended after only 366 days post-halving. In calendar terms, it concluded on December 4, 2013. Its relatively short duration (775 days since the beginning of the cycle) makes it a special case, not to be used as the main reference for current projections. However, it provides an initial marker of the possible variability of cycles.
The 2016 Cycle: A First Reference
The second cycle, which started after the July 2016 halving, ended after 526 days. That would correspond to September 28, 2025, if our current cycle followed the same timeline, with the actual historical end on December 16, 2017. This cycle lasted 1,472 days since the previous top and 1,068 days since its own beginning. These figures show a clear lengthening compared to the 2012 cycle.
The 2020 Cycle: Confirmation of a Pattern
The third cycle, following the May 2020 halving, lasted 547 days post-halving, which would project the end of the current cycle to October 19, 2025, if repeated, with the actual historical end on November 8, 2021. Its total duration was 1,424 days since the previous top and 1,061 days since the beginning. These figures are close to those of the 2016 cycle, reinforcing the idea of some temporal regularity in Bitcoin’s dynamics, even if price amplitudes differ.
The Average of the Last Two Cycles: A Solid Basis for 2025
Combining the 2016 and 2020 cycles, we get an average post-halving duration of 536 days, i.e. a projection around October 8, 2025, for the current cycle. In calendar terms, this places the end of the cycle between November 20 and 25, 2025. The durations since the previous top (1,448 days) and since the beginning of the cycle (1,064 days) also support this projection, suggesting a likely window between late October and November 2025.
The Current Cycle (2024): A Window of Uncertainty
The ongoing cycle, from the April 2024 halving, is already at 514 days. Projections based on past durations place a possible end between mid-October and mid-November next year. Calculations relative to the previous cycle’s top also point to October 26, 2025, with a margin extending into November.
Conclusion: October or November 2025?
Comparative analysis favors an end of cycle between October and November 2025, with a slightly higher probability of a peak in October, but an extension into November remains credible, especially with crypto ETFs. As always with Bitcoin, volatility and macroeconomic events could accelerate or delay this pattern, particularly the Fed’s monetary policy. But this time window provides a valuable framework to anticipate the next major market moves.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.