Funny what you end up doing when you're bored on a Thursday evening...
Although I will say, according to the log curve, the recovery is already in full motion by August of 2010... However, it shows the possibility of a flash crash this week or next. :D
Ok, let's be honest, pretty much zero percent chance of that happening, ok... Let's just say 0.000001% chance.
Although I will say this. Most of you don't remember the flash crash we had during Feb of 2018, everyone thought crypto was dead. So it has been a hot minute since we had like a deep crash (30% or more). But the more I think about it, it's been stupid quite since the crash. No major rebound after a pretty a fairly strong multi-month back to back price tumble.
ALSO, here is what worries me though...
So let's travel back to the start of CME futures. Jan 2018 contract had a ton of gaps up top... There is clear evidence that at the end of Jan 2018 they tried to start a bull rally to jump start the market to try to cover those positions: it failed. They were likely forced to liquidate their positions to cover the premiums for those contracts, which ultimately caused a liquidity crisis in Feb.
And now look at the current situation playing out for end of October contracts:
Here is November's contracts:
This would be a roughly 30% flash crash, WHICH also happens to be the bottom of the log curve for BTC:
Looking at all of this in context is honestly giving me a queezy feeling in the back of my throat.
Is it one in a million likelihood? Absolutely! But frankly it's starting to make a lot more sense of WHY something like this could potentially happen. This, along with the fact that Monthly Stoch is about to cross and the death cross happening.
It may be "safe" to stay out of the market for a while. Honestly I think that's what I'm going to do, even if conventional TA tells me to start buying here soon. There is just starting to be too many coincidences here and frankly conventional TA doesn't cover 1 in a million scenarios. But frankly the market is eerily quiet and as a trader knowing how much we have dropped, there should be a lot more buying here. Longs are still a stupidly high ratio over shorts on Finex, and this is setting up a scenario where something just smells odd to me.
Here is the full picture of the chart with log curves:
Although I will say, according to the log curve, the recovery is already in full motion by August of 2010... However, it shows the possibility of a flash crash this week or next. :D
Ok, let's be honest, pretty much zero percent chance of that happening, ok... Let's just say 0.000001% chance.
Although I will say this. Most of you don't remember the flash crash we had during Feb of 2018, everyone thought crypto was dead. So it has been a hot minute since we had like a deep crash (30% or more). But the more I think about it, it's been stupid quite since the crash. No major rebound after a pretty a fairly strong multi-month back to back price tumble.
ALSO, here is what worries me though...
So let's travel back to the start of CME futures. Jan 2018 contract had a ton of gaps up top... There is clear evidence that at the end of Jan 2018 they tried to start a bull rally to jump start the market to try to cover those positions: it failed. They were likely forced to liquidate their positions to cover the premiums for those contracts, which ultimately caused a liquidity crisis in Feb.
And now look at the current situation playing out for end of October contracts:
Here is November's contracts:
This would be a roughly 30% flash crash, WHICH also happens to be the bottom of the log curve for BTC:
Looking at all of this in context is honestly giving me a queezy feeling in the back of my throat.
Is it one in a million likelihood? Absolutely! But frankly it's starting to make a lot more sense of WHY something like this could potentially happen. This, along with the fact that Monthly Stoch is about to cross and the death cross happening.
It may be "safe" to stay out of the market for a while. Honestly I think that's what I'm going to do, even if conventional TA tells me to start buying here soon. There is just starting to be too many coincidences here and frankly conventional TA doesn't cover 1 in a million scenarios. But frankly the market is eerily quiet and as a trader knowing how much we have dropped, there should be a lot more buying here. Longs are still a stupidly high ratio over shorts on Finex, and this is setting up a scenario where something just smells odd to me.
Here is the full picture of the chart with log curves:
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.