BTC — Identifying High-Probability Long Zone With Confluence

BTC has been in a 17-day downtrend since the swing failure at the ATH (~$124.5K). That move acted as both a bull trap and the completion of a 5-wave structure, offering an excellent short entry at the highs.

Now the key question: where is BTC heading next, and where is the next high-probability trade setup?

Current Situation

BTC is sitting at the 0.618 Fib retracement ($108,236) of the move from $98.2K → $124.5K. Many traders are already buying this level, which is valid but a deeper zone below offers stronger confluence.

🧩 Confluence Zone: $105K–$104K

1. POC of the previous trading range → ~$104K
   
2. 0.75 Fib retracement: $104,768.5
   
3. 0.786 Fib retracement: $103,823
   
4. Anchored VWAP (from swing low $74,508) → just above the 0.786 Fib
   
5. Midpoint of the previous 60-day range
   
6. Liquidity cluster → positioned around $105K–$104K
   
7. 1.618 Fib extension target: $104,296
   
8. Pitchfork midline → supporting this level
   
9. 200 EMA (daily) → adding dynamic support at ~$104K
   

This creates a high-confluence support cluster between $105K–$104K, making it the next strong long setup.

🟢 Long Trade Setup

• Entry Zone: $106K–$104K
  
• Stop-Loss: Below $103K
  
• TP: $110K-$114K
  
• R:R Potential: 1:2+
  

Technical Insight

• The ATH rejection confirmed both bullish exhaustion and a completed 5-wave move, triggering the current correction.
  
• While the 0.618 retracement offers valid support, the $105K–$104K zone holds significantly stronger confluence.
  
• This makes it the most attractive high-probability long entry zone in the current structure.
  

🔍 Indicators used

• Multi Timeframe 8x MA Support Resistance Zones [SiDec] → to identify support and resistance zones such as the daily 200 EMA/SMA.
  

➡️ Available for free. You can find it on my profile under “Scripts” and apply it directly to your charts for extra confluence when planning your trades.

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