BTC: The Bitcoin bounce is not a trend reversal

🚫 The Bitcoin bounce is not a trend reversal

Here’s why the current move looks more like a liquidity trap than a real bullish reversal:

- Momentum is lagging — the rebound isn’t supported by strength.
- Liquidity spikes look engineered to squeeze short positions rather than coming from genuine buyers.
- ETFs are selling while BTC is pumping → classic exit liquidity behaviour.
- We remain in a bearish trend, and the current flag pattern is on the verge of breaking. Statistically, these patterns break down, with targets equal to the size of the previous leg.
- Price is rising while volume is falling → this is a hidden bearish divergence on volume.

🎯 What I’m seeing

It looks like many institutions were caught off guard by the depth of this downtrend, and now they’re trying to reduce exposure.

They appear to be engineering a bounce to attract retail FOMO, allowing them to exit with smaller losses — a classic liquidity extraction move.

As I’ve mentioned several times already:
👉 The primary trend remains bearish until Q2 2026, though we should expect bounces and manipulative moves along the way.

⚠️ My advice

Don’t deploy all your capital into a fake FOMO rally and become the institutions’ exit liquidity.
Wait for a proper bottom confirmation, such as:

A W pattern, followed by a successful retest with a higher low.

❌ Invalidation

This analysis becomes invalid only if the current pattern breaks upward with strong volume.

DYOR