Bearish Bias for 
DXY
Weekly context:
The last up-move failed to print a new weekly high. Failing to create a shift in structure, so rallies are suspect.
4H structure:
We had a hard bearish displacement (large down candles) that erased prior price action and kept going without delivering a “full” rebalance. That usually means the price target remains lower.
The key zones on chart
Breaker / sell zone: \~97.45–97.75 (teal box). This is the prior bullish OB that failed (now acting as resistance).
Line in the sand: \~97.35–97.40 (dashed line through the teal). A decisive 4H close below here signals continuation.
Upside cap / invalidation area: 98.12 (cyan line) up to \~98.20. Above this, the bearish sentiment weakens.
Primary downside draw: 96.478 (orange line). That’s the next obvious liquidity/inefficiency magnet on your chart.
Trade plan
Idea A — Rejection short from the breaker (preferred):
Entry: look for a rejection setup inside 97.45–97.75 (e.g., 15m/1h bearish shift after a sweep).
Stop: above the breaker and the cyan line ⇒ 98.12 (conservative) or 98.20 (safer).
Targets:
T1: 96.84 (take partials; pay yourself)
T2: 96.47.00
Idea B — Continuation after the break (confirmation play):
Trigger: a 4H close below \~97.35.
Entry: sell the first clean pullback into 97.35–97.45.
Stop: above 97.85–98.00 (back inside the breaker); conservative stop 98.12.
Target: 96.478
Management & invalidation
If price rebalances deeper and closes 4H above 98.12–98.20, the breaker is failing. Flatten shorts; reassess (potential squeeze toward 98.60–99.00 is then on deck).
If price hesitates at 97.00, trail above the last 1H swing high to protect realized PnL while aiming for 96.478.
News risk: Your chart flags upcoming US data (icons). Expect wicks; use hard stops and consider sizing down around releases.
Why this makes sense
* The strong displacement leg sets the draw lower.
* The teal box is a bearish breaker created by a failed bullish structure—ideal for “sell on rally.”
* The market rebalanced the prior up-close leg already; the lack of a symmetrical rebalance on the down-leg favors continuation to the next target (96.478).
One-liner: Bearish while 4H stays under 98.12; sell rallies into 97.45–97.75 or sell a 4H close-and-pullback below 97.35; scale out 97.20 → 97.00 → 96.80 → 96.478; hard stop above 98.12–98.20.
*Not financial advice. Size appropriately and stick to your stop.*
PLEASE PUA!
DXY Weekly context:
The last up-move failed to print a new weekly high. Failing to create a shift in structure, so rallies are suspect.
4H structure:
We had a hard bearish displacement (large down candles) that erased prior price action and kept going without delivering a “full” rebalance. That usually means the price target remains lower.
The key zones on chart
Breaker / sell zone: \~97.45–97.75 (teal box). This is the prior bullish OB that failed (now acting as resistance).
Line in the sand: \~97.35–97.40 (dashed line through the teal). A decisive 4H close below here signals continuation.
Upside cap / invalidation area: 98.12 (cyan line) up to \~98.20. Above this, the bearish sentiment weakens.
Primary downside draw: 96.478 (orange line). That’s the next obvious liquidity/inefficiency magnet on your chart.
Trade plan
Idea A — Rejection short from the breaker (preferred):
Entry: look for a rejection setup inside 97.45–97.75 (e.g., 15m/1h bearish shift after a sweep).
Stop: above the breaker and the cyan line ⇒ 98.12 (conservative) or 98.20 (safer).
Targets:
T1: 96.84 (take partials; pay yourself)
T2: 96.47.00
Idea B — Continuation after the break (confirmation play):
Trigger: a 4H close below \~97.35.
Entry: sell the first clean pullback into 97.35–97.45.
Stop: above 97.85–98.00 (back inside the breaker); conservative stop 98.12.
Target: 96.478
Management & invalidation
If price rebalances deeper and closes 4H above 98.12–98.20, the breaker is failing. Flatten shorts; reassess (potential squeeze toward 98.60–99.00 is then on deck).
If price hesitates at 97.00, trail above the last 1H swing high to protect realized PnL while aiming for 96.478.
News risk: Your chart flags upcoming US data (icons). Expect wicks; use hard stops and consider sizing down around releases.
Why this makes sense
* The strong displacement leg sets the draw lower.
* The teal box is a bearish breaker created by a failed bullish structure—ideal for “sell on rally.”
* The market rebalanced the prior up-close leg already; the lack of a symmetrical rebalance on the down-leg favors continuation to the next target (96.478).
One-liner: Bearish while 4H stays under 98.12; sell rallies into 97.45–97.75 or sell a 4H close-and-pullback below 97.35; scale out 97.20 → 97.00 → 96.80 → 96.478; hard stop above 98.12–98.20.
*Not financial advice. Size appropriately and stick to your stop.*
PLEASE PUA!
Trade active
I certainly did not consider this type of rebalance, but so far it is looking like that is what it is.Something to note on this particular price action is that it currently finds itself in a range. Price has managed to do both failed to close above and failed to close below.
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Still targeting 96.478
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Still working our way there...Note
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We might be reaching the final stages of this consolidationNote
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Trade closed: target reached
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!!
linktr.ee/thetradingworkshop
linktr.ee/thetradingworkshop
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!!!
linktr.ee/thetradingworkshop
linktr.ee/thetradingworkshop
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.