Ethereum Simple Analysis: Back to $4,000 or $4,300 next?

3 days ago

After dropping from $4,700, ETH has actually held up better than BTC.

Now it’s sitting at a key decision point — retesting the Value Area Low (VAL) at $4,155, which marked the base of August’s rally from $3,400 to $4,900.

The bigger picture still leans bullish. ETH is holding above the anchored vWAP from July (~$3,857), the average entry point of that entire rally. Staying above means the market is still backing the trend. Lose it, and sentiment flips.

📌 Levels to watch:

• $3,857 (anchored vWAP support)
  
• $4,155 (VAL battleground)
  
• $4,300 (critical resistance)
  
• $3,720–$3,777 (volume gap support)
  

The fight now is simple:

• Reject $4,155 → confirms weakness, ETH stays trapped under resistance.
  
• Reclaim $4,155 → opens the door to rotate higher, with $4,300 as the real test.
  

Why $4,300? Because it’s both the Point of Control (POC) and anchored vWAP from the latest decline - meaning that it's both the most traded price level AND the average price since its decline.

Key takeaway: We are currently testing key resistance. Watch closely for a reaction and if we reclaim $4,155, expect the real test at $4,300.

15 hours ago

Trade active

Update: Gov shutdown headlines have propelled crypto higher — ETH cleared the $4,300 line in the sand.

Now the key is whether $4,300 or $4,155 can hold as support. If so, ETH could rotate back toward the $4,670 VAH zone.

If both levels give way, we may be looking at a Failed Auction — where the breakout back into value was a fakeout, opening the door to lower levels again.

📌 Watching $4,300 → $4,155 → $4,670